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5 dollar gas...are we ready?

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unh_hockey

pain is temporary pride is forever
2008 opened a lot of eyes, if not for a short while, about how volatile the economy can be when gas prices suddenly and unexpectedly hike. When people’s commutes suddenly become comparable to rent payments, consumption goes down, and the economy starts to wane. The cost of doing business goes up, companies report lower earnings…wall street does its thing and sells on bad news...

Unlike my last thread which involved blasting the corn ethanol scam, I want to keep this thread less opinionated (although we are making some predictions). With that, I want to throw some questions out there:

1-When gas hits 5 dollars, will major business sectors see contraction? How fast? Will it effect our short term economic growth?

2- Will the over priced DJIA correct itself leading to investor panic? I suspect prices will come down to normal levels.
3- How will you deal with it? Have you already?

I’ll probably post from time to time with new articles and what not to answer my questions.

The only one I can think of right now is question #3. My plan is to get a job which will be a few miles from home. My interview is tomorrow, so I am acting fast. With that, I intend on filling up once every few weeks - that constitutes a fraction of my total income. (I drive a WRX which only takes 93 octane - 27 MPG highway. :( ) I feel that being co-located to work will render me immune to these cycles. Other than that, I plan on walking a lot to places I need to go to keep those costs down and renting an apartment that doesn’t use oil as heat.

I will be interested in hearing everyone’s take on this.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Europeans pay about $8/gallon for gas because of taxes.

But then again, all of Europe could fit in my bathtub.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

I think higher gas prices will push people to drive less, use more efficient vehicles, etc. Which can only be better for everyone in the long run.

On a personal scale, I have zero problem with gas prices rising since I use mass transit to go everywhere. So even if the transit system raises the price, it will be nominal (cents). Add to that the cost of transit is subsidized by my company, so my cost is maybe 50% of an already low price.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Europeans pay about $8/gallon for gas because of taxes.

But then again, all of Europe could fit in my bathtub.

Correct. I had the fortune to drive through Spain, Andorra and Serbia and got to experience expensive gas first hand. Remember, we pay more as a hidden cost thanks to subsidies from taxpayer dollars, but that hidden cost probably doesn’t influence consumer’s choices as much as obvious hikes like the one we are seeing now.

And companies will again have to cut back on wages or eliminate positions to "save" money to pay for the increase in gas.

This is why I am bringing 2008 up in this conversation. There were huge cutbacks at my company starting in Q4 08, which continued to Q2 09 which eventually landed me in the unemployment line.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Right now, I average about $40/wk on gas. If that changes to $50 or even $60, I doubt I'll even notice- I spend more than that a week on going out for lunch.

People will complain, and companies like Ford will sell a lot of Fiestas and Focuses, especially considering Toyota has already warned of shortages....
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

renting an apartment that doesn’t use oil as heat.

I will be interested in hearing everyone’s take on this.
You don't think Natural gas will follow the price of fuel oil, guess again. Even wood and/or wood pellets will follow the price of 2oil.

The Feds are predicting an average gasoline cost of 3.86 over the summer for whats it worth, the media is hyping 5 buck a gallon gas, I'm sure the oil companies are more than willing to make that prediction come true. There is a 24 day supply of gas on hand right now, as much as normal, so why the price hike? Its all a joke and its on us once again

I can put 100 bucks a day in gas in my service vehicle, glad oil companies are willing to pay for it.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

And companies will again have to cut back on wages or eliminate positions to "save" money to pay for the increase in gas.

Maybe they'll let me work from home an extra day?
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

This is why I am bringing 2008 up in this conversation. There were huge cutbacks at my company starting in Q4 08, which continued to Q2 09 which eventually landed me in the unemployment line.

But we all got a $300 check to make house payments with!
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

You don't think Natural gas will follow the price of fuel oil, guess again. Even wood and/or wood pellets will follow the price of 2oil.

The Feds are predicting an average gasoline cost of 3.86 over the summer for whats it worth, the media is hyping 5 buck a gallon gas, I'm sure the oil companies are more than willing to make that prediction come true. There is a 24 day supply of gas on hand right now, as much as normal, so why the price hike? Its all a joke and its on us once again

I am going on future contracts for brent comparing to level of 2008. EG in feb 2008, march futures eclipsed 100$ per. The same thing happened this year. However, we have seen futures drop a little so i'll give you that.

Natural gas is a different beast from oil and wood ( or whichever) . For one, the United states sits on huge reserves - the IEA estimates some 32,000 trillion cubic feet of the stuff on globally with 2074 TCF in the USA. Thats equivalent to 6 trillion barrels of oil worldwide and 0.4 trillion in the USA. ( "IEA doubles global gas reserves estimates," BBC, January 20, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12245633.). The beauty is that the more we get, the more we discover. The IEA predicted half the world reserves as early as 2008. For only a couple of years, thats amazing! I think I have sufficient reason to believe that natural gas will not track the prices of oil, even if demand increases. Actually, this might force us to leverage this natural resource much more. While I am not for subsidizing energy, if they have to subsidize something, better NG than corn ethanol or the similar.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

In a note of irony or coincidence, I was just pulled aside by my boss and told that this summer I'll be bird dogging all the mileage logs and fleet fuel card reports to make sure that there isn't any mishandling of company funds for fuel.

When prices got bad three years ago, one of our technicians was caught putting 24 gallons of gas into a 18 gallon tank. Repeatedly.

Now, I get to be the company's watchdog for this.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

In a note of irony or coincidence, I was just pulled aside by my boss and told that this summer I'll be bird dogging all the mileage logs and fleet fuel card reports to make sure that there isn't any mishandling of company funds for fuel.

When prices got bad three years ago, one of our technicians was caught putting 24 gallons of gas into a 18 gallon tank. Repeatedly.

Now, I get to be the company's watchdog for this.

It's also a bit ironic that this post comes a day after oil prices dropped 3%.

I doubt we'll hit $5/gallon as a national average. I'm sure there will be localized spots where that happens, but frankly around here I'll be shocked it gets above $4.25 here, even over the 4th of July weekend. My guess is the national average doesn't hit $4.50 at any point this summer.

Here's the other thing to consider. A jump from $1.50 to $3.00/gallon is a 100% difference. The jump from $3.00 to $4.50 is only a 50% increase. Yes, it causes everything else to jump, but even though in nominal terms it's as big a jump, percentage wise it's not even close.

If it means fewer SUV's on the road, great. Otherwise my wife and I both have cars that get 30+ mpg and I only drive 2 miles to a park and ride to catch a bus to work during the week. We spend maybe $150/month on gas combined. Not going to kill us if it jumps to $200/month.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Natural gas is a different beast from oil and wood ( or whichever) . For one, the United states sits on huge reserves - the IEA estimates some 32,000 trillion cubic feet of the stuff on globally with 2074 TCF in the USA. Thats equivalent to 6 trillion barrels of oil worldwide and 0.4 trillion in the USA. ( "IEA doubles global gas reserves estimates," BBC, January 20, 2011, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12245633.). The beauty is that the more we get, the more we discover. The IEA predicted half the world reserves as early as 2008. For only a couple of years, thats amazing! I think I have sufficient reason to believe that natural gas will not track the prices of oil, even if demand increases. Actually, this might force us to leverage this natural resource much more. While I am not for subsidizing energy, if they have to subsidize something, better NG than corn ethanol or the similar.
Better read up on Fracking Natural gas wells before you get too excited about Natural gas. We have alot of it but if the price of oil stays up, natural gas will follow a BTU is a BTU. Trucking companies will start using it causing another huge demand on it. We pee away tons of it making electricity with it and now with Japan no Nuke plant will ever be built in the US so we'll continue to waste a portable fuel.
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

Better read up on Fracking Natural gas wells before you get too excited about Natural gas. We have alot of it but if the price of oil stays up, natural gas will follow a BTU is a BTU. Trucking companies will start using it causing another huge demand on it. We pee away tons of it making electricity with it and now with Japan no Nuke plant will ever be built in the US so we'll continue to waste a portable fuel.

I have read up too much, which is why I am a pretty strong supporter of NG. Its a bit complicated and beyond the scope of this thread, so i'll keep this response shorter than normal. I would like to see NG displace coal considering how dirty goal is, and how bad mountaintop strip mining is. From what I hear, getting the permits to drill is a pain and can be costly. Sure, NG has its hurdles, but doesn't every energy source? Look at nuclear. No arguement there.

Why do I like it? Because its here, its usable, and provides energy on the scale we need it. The american economy needs readily available energy sources which are cost effective solutions when compared to oil ( once it becomes scarce).
 
Re: 5 dollar gas...are we ready?

In a note of irony or coincidence, I was just pulled aside by my boss and told that this summer I'll be bird dogging all the mileage logs and fleet fuel card reports to make sure that there isn't any mishandling of company funds for fuel.

When prices got bad three years ago, one of our technicians was caught putting 24 gallons of gas into a 18 gallon tank. Repeatedly.

Now, I get to be the company's watchdog for this.

Wow!!!! Honestly, fell it up halfway and then fill your gas can as well.

seems to be hovering at around 3.99 right now across most of SE Michigan. I do hope that it stays there a bit, with nobody wanting to be the first ones to break the Four Dollar mark.

Would somebody in Libya take out Gahdaffi already??
 
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