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41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

R

Red Cloud

Not a player, I just crush a lot
The title doesn't mean anything, I just couldn't think of anything better.

The second Harper minority government fell to a vote of no-confidence last night after the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc pulled their support, ending the longest minority government in Canadian history after almost three years.

The immediate impetus for the election is two-fold. First, a House of Commons committee (that, like Parliament itself, has a plurality of Conservatives but not a majority) recommended that the government be held in contempt of Parliament for withholding the cost of a purchase of F-35s. A day later, the Liberals, New Democrats (NDP), and Bloc Quebecois all announced they would not support the Conservatives' new budget. Budget votes are also votes of no-confidence, so before debate even began on the budget, a vote was called, and the government fell yesterday.

The election has been called for May 2.

Interestingly, this comes at a time when the Conservatives are actually polling pretty well - at some of the highest levels since the prorogation crisis in late 2008. They were only ten seats shy of a majority last time, so if they are able to poll just a little better than they did in the last election, they could well land a majority. That's quite a risk that Michael Ignatieff, the leader of the Liberal Party, is taking, because it would lock the Liberals out of government until 2015 if they get it.

Polls seem to indicate that the Conservatives will at the very least earn a third consecutive plurality, but the wrinkle this time is that there may be some serious talk between the Liberals and the NDP of forming a governing coalition if that happens - likely, what Ignatieff (and Jack Layton, the NDP leader) is hoping for by going for this election. That will likely be one of the biggest questions of the election: will Canadians be OK with that concept? It's a bit foreign to Canadian politics. Ignatieff and Layton are gambling that things will be different than they were during the prorogation crisis, when people were generally against it, but that also came just a couple of months after the last election, and some people were against it because they didn't want there to possibly be another election right away.

Conservatives will almost certainly focus a solid amount of attention on the possibility of the NDP gaining a share of power, as moderate Canadians who support the Liberals are equally not a fan of the left-wing NDP as they are with the Conservatives.

As always, with a Westminster style election, it'll be fun to watch. Can the Conservatives pick up ground in Quebec? What role will the Bloc play? Can the Greens break through with a seat or two?

Stay tuned.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Very cool analysis, thank you. If you don't mind saying, just why do you know so much about this?
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

I'm starting to understand what it's like to live in Italy. It's because of stuff like this that I really don't want one of the systems they have in Europe where each party gets seats based on the percentage of the votes they receive. Majority governments in the parliamentary system we have are fraught with their own problems, but it beats the heck out of multi-million dollar elections every couple of years.

Despite the recent issues that have sprung up with this Conservative government, I really do hope they win a majority in this next election, and not just because I vote Conservative. But because Stephen Harper is clearly the best and most effective leader this country has had in a very long time. I genuinely respect him as a person and as a leader and think he is exactly what this country needs. I would love to see what he can do with a majority where he doesn't constantly have to capitulate to the Liberals, Bloc and NDP all the time just to get bills passed.

In my heart of hearts though I just don't know if he has the broad based support he's going to need in Quebec and Ontario to pull off a majority. If the Conservative base has grown in those provinces and they can pull off an upset or two in the Atlantic provinces the Tories may get the majority, but I really think it will just be another Conservative minority government when all is said and done. So really this election is a waste of time and money and a chance for Ignatieff's already huge ego to get even larger.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

gounhwildcats said:
Despite the recent issues that have sprung up with this Conservative government, I really do hope they win a majority in this next election, and not just because I vote Conservative. But because Stephen Harper is clearly the best and most effective leader this country has had in a very long time. I genuinely respect him as a person and as a leader and think he is exactly what this country needs. I would love to see what he can do with a majority where he doesn't constantly have to capitulate to the Liberals, Bloc and NDP all the time just to get bills passed.
Click to expand...

The thought of Iggy running the country with help from Layton and Duceppe scares the absolute living SHAT out of me, and I haven't lived north of the 49th for nearly 20 years. Harper and the Conservatives aren't perfect (witness the G20 fiasco) but I agree with your assessment of his leadership skills.

Interestingly, the Conservatives' decision to not help fund a new arena in Quebec City could cost Harper some much needed support in the one area in Quebec which tilts Conservative.

Harper noted the Conservative caucus debated whether to help fund professional sport facilities and decided against it at a time of fiscal restraint.

"You either fund them all or you don't fund any," he said. "There will be no double standard on this toward Quebec City or anywhere else."

Quebec City Mayor Regis Labeaume had previously called the Conservatives' decision "suicidal" and asserted the Tories would pay a hefty political price in the region where they hold six seats. (The party holds 11 provincewide.)

Recent polls have shown the Conservatives are losing support in Quebec City, mainly in favour of the Bloc Quebecois.

The prime minister acknowledged the arena decision has disappointed Quebecers, but he remained confident they would understand, like a majority of Canadians, that this was the right thing to do.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

I'm interested to see what will come of the party leaders - most of them have been where they are for quite some time. Duceppe has led the Bloc since 1997, Layton's been the man at the NDP since 2003, and even Harper has pretty much been the leader of the Conservatives since 2002 dating back to when he was the leader of the Canadian Alliance. All three do seem to be more firm in their positions than Ignatieff if this election doesn't go well for the Liberals.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Red Cloud said:
I'm interested to see what will come of the party leaders - most of them have been where they are for quite some time. Duceppe has led the Bloc since 1997, Layton's been the man at the NDP since 2003, and even Harper has pretty much been the leader of the Conservatives since 2002 dating back to when he was the leader of the Canadian Alliance. All three do seem to be more firm in their positions than Ignatieff if this election doesn't go well for the Liberals.
Click to expand...

Well Duceppe really has no reason to leave. He knows he can't win the election, but he can stir the pot and get a bunch of patronage plums for Quebec. Layton's had some health issues, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him step down sometime after this election. Not to mention that the federal NDP are becoming less and less meaningful on the federal stage, especially as the Green party begins to make strides. If the Conservatives win a majority I'm sure Ignatieff will bolt for whatever country will have him.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Red Cloud said:
I'm interested to see what will come of the party leaders - most of them have been where they are for quite some time. Duceppe has led the Bloc since 1997, Layton's been the man at the NDP since 2003, and even Harper has pretty much been the leader of the Conservatives since 2002 dating back to when he was the leader of the Canadian Alliance. All three do seem to be more firm in their positions than Ignatieff if this election doesn't go well for the Liberals.
Click to expand...

Peter Worthington thinks this election is Iggy's way to gracefully exit the political scene in Ottawa:

Losing an election is an ideal way to get out of the job without losing face. Resigning after losing an election and turning the reins of the party over to another (Bob Rae is likely panting for a chance to lead) can even seem noble and is certainly honourable.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Well, this is kind of telling.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-...ate-moved-due-to-hockey-playoff-cbc-says.html

Canada’s four largest political parties have agreed to change the date of their French-language debate this week to avoid a conflict with a playoff hockey game, the Canadian Broadcasting Corp. reported.

The debate, which was planned for April 14, has been rescheduled to take place a day earlier, the CBC said on its website. The CBC is a member of the broadcasting group that organizes debates among leaders during election campaigns.

The leaders from the four parties -- the governing Conservative Party, the Liberal Party, the New Democratic Party and the Bloc Quebecois -- are also scheduled to hold an English- language debate on April 12. The federal elections will be held on May 2.

The parties and the broadcasters changed the date of the French-language debate after the National Hockey League scheduled a playoff game between the Montreal Canadiens and Boston Bruins on the same day, the CBC said.
Click to expand...
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Ignatieff is doing a bit of correcting today.

Michael Ignatieff says he’s voted Labour in Britain but never cast a ballot in the United States, as he attempted to untangle a series of contradictory comments about his participation in foreign elections...
“I’m a Canadian citizen. I’ve never been the citizen of another country. I’ve never voted – I can’t vote in the United States. But I’m a Commonwealth Citizen, so I have voted in a British election,” he told reporters Monday.
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I wonder how people got an impression to the contrary?

The report points to one quote Mr. Ignatieff provided to the Glasgow Herald in 2004, when he was a Harvard professor: “I am an American Democrat. I will vote for [John] Kerry in November.”
Click to expand...

Oh.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

The English debate is tonight, starting in about half an hour.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canadavotes2011/leaders-debate/

Interesting format. Instead of having the four leaders answering every question, they're doing six head-to-head encounters, starting with Harper/Duceppe, then moving to Ignatieff/Layton, Harper/Ignatieff, Duceppe/Layton, Ignatieff/Duceppe, and Layton/Harper. Then each one gets a closing argument.

Subtext to this - Green leader Elizabeth May (who strikes me as bizarre for the sole fact that she lived in the US until she was 18), who participated in the debates in the last election, is not being invited to participate this time around. This is in part because the Greens don't have any members of Parliament even though they have candidates in basically every riding. The reason she was allowed to participate last time is because a former Liberal MP turned Green right before the end of the 39th Parliament, and although he never sat as a Green, he technically counted as the first ever Green MP, and thus the Greens were allowed into the last debate.

Should be fun.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

According to this poll, it's starting to look good for Harper:

Stephen Harper's Conservatives have gained a massive 21-point lead over Michael Ignatieff's Liberals, according to a new COMPAS Research poll obtained exclusively by QMI Agency.

In Ontario, the Liberals trail their Conservative opponents in every area of the province except Toronto — although Harper leads in the city's suburbs.

The poll, the largest telephone survey of the campaign, also found that Ignatieff is trailing both the Conservatives and the NDP in Quebec, as NDP Leader Jack Layton shows some surprising strength in the province.

Pollster Conrad Winn said Harper is particularly strong in Ontario and all points west.

"The way things are going, he's destined for a majority," Winn said. "The only chance they have is to prevent him from forming a majority, and for that they would need far higher public confidence in the leaders of the opposition than exists."
Click to expand...
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Interesting article (written by an American) in the Ottawa Citizen late last week.

http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/decision-canada/Americanstyle+doesn+look/4619814/story.html

Polls seem to indicate that Harper and the Tories are going to win a 3rd straight election, the question remains whether he's going to be able to get a majority or another minority.

Ignatieff and the Liberals are pretty much dead in the water, it looks like. The only real movement on the left side of things has come from Jack Layton and the NDP. The New Democrats are currently fourth in the House of Commons with 36 seats, but a number of recent polls as them gaining on the Liberals in the popular vote - in fact, one poll released yesterday that is currently a bit of an outlier has the NDP tied with the Liberals. The NDP would probably have to significantly outpoll the Liberals to actually surpass their number of seats in Parliament, but it's good news for Layton and bad news for Iggy.

The Greens appear to be doomed to another election in which they fail to break through and grab a seat. The party for the last few cycles has been hoping to have a breakthrough the way the Bloc Quebecois did in their very first election in 1993 (actually becoming the Official Opposition thanks to the collapse of the Progressive Conservatives and a splintering of the conservative vote). That hasn't happened, in part because the Bloc have a very focused agenda around a position that no other party espouses, if you're apt to vote Green, there are plenty of reasons to go with the NDP or the Liberals already.

The Greens have candidates in every riding but four - the Liberals and the NDP are the only parties with candidates in every riding since the Tories are staying out of one riding in Quebec where the incumbent is an independent who more often than not votes with them.

To a lesser degree than the British system, the Canadians have plenty of other parties running candidates, but none of them ever come close to actually electing MPs. The Marxist-Leninist Party is actually the biggest of the also-rans, as they have 70 different candidates across the 308 ridings. Among other parties:

Christian Heritage - A remnant of the Social Credit movement of the 1960s and 1970s. They're pretty much exactly as you'd gather from the name.
Libertarian - Yup.
Communist - Yes, there are two different Communist parties in Canada.
Rhinoceros - The Canadian equivalent of the Monster Raving Loony Party in the UK, basically just a satirical organization.
Canadian Action - These guys are big into anti-globalization measures.
Pirate - Not a joke party as you might imagine. They're big into copyright reform and net neutrality. Think The Pirate Bay.
Progressive Canadian - Basically a bunch of hangers on from the old Progressive Conservatives who think the Tories are too far to the right.
Marijuana - Take a wild guess.
Western Block - An attempt at a Bloc Quebecois type party representing Western Canada, which has traditionally felt tread upon by Ontario and Quebec. There's not really as much actual separatist fervor in the western provinces, but this party represents those that are.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

Some very interesting dynamics going on in Quebec. That's not unusual, of course, but it's a lot of different things that are making the overall election a lot more interesting.

First and foremost, Jack Layton is quickly becoming the rock star of this election, and Quebec is a big part of that. Seems kind of weird, from the American perspective, that a guy who has been the public face of his party for eight years is suddenly growing in popularity, but that's how it is with Layton. It's at least partially because the NDP has been only the 4th largest party in Parliament since the Bloc came onto the scene in 1993, but it's still a little strange, because it's not like the NDP is on the fringe of Canadian politics.

Layton did very well in the French debate (as did BQ leader Gilles Duceppe), but that alone doesn't fully explain his burgeoning popularity in Quebec, where the NDP has just one incumbent MP out of 75. Rather, there appears to be some Bloc fatigue setting in.

Since the Bloc's emergence, they have always controlled at least half of Quebec's Ottawa delegation, but the complaint now is that their message rarely, if ever, changes, especially since Duceppe took over way back in 1997. The story is always "vote for us to protect Quebec's interests" with a hint at sovereignty and/or outright independence always in the background. The foes change based on who is in power in Ottawa - the BQ attacked Chretien and the Liberals in the 1990s, they attack Harper and the Conservatives now.

Layton seems to be the only candidate offering something new in the distinct left-of-center political atmosphere that much of the province is in. Some polls indicate that the NDP may actually be drawing more support than the BQ, which would be disastrous for the Bloc. That could see their numbers shrink to well below half of the province's MPs, which would render them functionally irrelevant.

However, recent occurrences in provincial politics in Quebec are worth looking at as well. The National Assembly of Quebec (they really do have this whole "we're our own nation" thing down pretty good, eh?) is dominated by two parties basically cut along federalist/sovereignist lines: the Liberals and the Parti Quebecois. Both are basically left-of-center, the Bloc has basically always been informally considered the PQ's federal wing.

The PQ has been out of power and floundering since 2003, but they are on the rise. Since the Liberals won back a majority in 2008 (after an interlude with a minority government when a third party rose up to become the opposition then quickly lost nearly all of its members), the PQ has won most opinion polls, including every significant poll since January 2010. Further, the PQ's increasingly popular leader, Pauline Marois, won a tremendously lopsided confidence vote at the PQ's annual convention this week. If there were an election in Quebec today, it seems the PQ would probably retake power, and there have been murmurs of a third independence referendum if this happens.

Fortunately for the federalists, the Liberals in Quebec as the majority (albeit a super slim one) don't have to call an election until 2013. Majority governments don't call early elections unless they think they can increase their majority, and that's definitely not the case here. Unless they lose their majority through by-elections (basically special elections when a seat is vacated), the PQ is basically in check until then.

What does this have to do with the federal election? Well, the Bloc will be in big trouble if their numbers fall significantly AND the Tories win a majority. That will give the BQ zero credibility in Ottawa. If they want to have a shot at reaching the referendum they desire, they need a weaker federal government: a 3rd Harper minority government and a situation in which the Bloc forms the balance of power - that is, they have enough seats to deny the Liberals and the NDP a majority of seats.

That doesn't seem likely, especially now that the NDP is catching fire elsewhere, too, especially in British Columbia and Saskatchewan. In fact, since that poll last week that had the NDP tied with the Liberals, there have now been three more that have them either tied or ahead of the Liberals. That doesn't necessarily mean they'll poll the second most seats, but it could be enough to make Layton the leader of the opposition... or in a situation where the Conservatives don't reach a majority, could give him the leverage and moxie to make a play for the head of an NDP-Liberal coalition.
 
Re: 41st Canadian Election: Bloc Party!

NDP are more "socialist" than the others????

Just asking, not labeling.
 
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