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2026 Elections: To the Midterms and Beyond!

mookie1995 said:
still not convinced we don’t see R holding the house or sen….. polling seems to be left with morons answering the phones. Plus people still are shy to admit they support trump 💁🏾

Had to laugh with Elon tweeting that if D take congress they will add DC and PR as states 🙄
Didn’t he need to pass a civics test🤔
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I wouldn’t be shocked at all if Republicans held the Senate. I would be shocked if they held the House. 2024 is all I need to steel myself against building any hope that voting-age Americans will ever figure it out. That said, Trump voters generally only show up for Trump.

Kepler said:
We're going to find out a lot about polling sampling in these days.

Nate and Ezra had a great discussion about it which many here will never sit through because they think they understand these things better than they.
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There’s only like 8-10 of us who regularly post on this part of the cafe anymore, and I know I’m a relative latecomer as I (wrongly) assumed the political boards of a rich-people sport’s website were conservative (that- or y’all scared ‘em all off- well done, I say). Anyways, para mi, no creo que I know better than either Ezra or Nate, as I definitely don’t…it’s just I’d rather read you summarize it para mi, por favor.

That said, I don’t think Nate’s Deluxe Edition ever did any better than the Classic Edition, so you don’t really need an expert’s “extra” stuff to know what’s going on.
 
aparch said:
She's trying to torpedo Abdul, because she can lead the charge with "See, people don't want such extremist positions, they really want my 'moderate' position."
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Liberals would rather the Republicans keep Congress than they lose control of the Democratic party.

Take note. Liberals have always been like this, since the beginning of time. Given the choice, they will ally with fascists before they support the Left, because the Left exposes the lie that Liberals play the game for anyone but themselves.
 
Interesting bifurcation of prediction sites. FiftyPlusOne has the median Dem pick up in the House from their Monty Carlo at +42 seats. Sabato's Crystal Ball has it as +20. Silver has it at just +10.

All three give the probability of a House pickup around 95% and Senate at around 75%. So very interesting that the House margins are so wildly different.

I think the basic difference is the strict math indicates the Dems have a shot at Trump's +10 to +15 seats from 2024, while Sabato and Silver even moreso draw the (valid) distinction that Trump vs a specific Dem (Harris) is not a defensible comparison to generic GOP vs generic Dem. So all those aggregators from CNN and MS Now and NBC who are breathlessly reporting that the Dems are polling ahead in seats where Trump won by 18 points are reporting something they know is a misleading comparison and which they cannot draw a trendline from.

We'll know in a week. At this point I just hope we flip both chambers. The gerrymandering is so undemocratic in the House a pickup of 20 seats now is probably equivalent to a pickup of 60 seats in any year before 1980.
 
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Kepler said:
Yeah, fuck those experts. I did my own research.
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I read what the experts post about the polls and past results of that district. I trust them to aggregate that information for me. My point was Nate’s extra information he layered on top of that was no more predictive of who would win that particular seat than merely using past results/current polls to draw a conclusion. Not sure why you’re being so obtuse.
 
psych said:
I read what the experts post about the polls and past results of that district. I trust them to aggregate that information for me. My point was Nate’s extra information he layered on top of that was no more predictive of who would win that particular seat than merely using past results/current polls to draw a conclusion. Not sure why you’re being so obtuse.
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Well, you know me. Stupid to the core.

Not saying this is you, but I have read so much NATE SO DUMB HURR HURR HE SAID HILLARY WAS FAVORED AND SHE LOST HURR HURR SO DUMB that when people with no domain training critique people who have been doing this for a living for decades after intense study, we are watching a Republican Congressman throw a snowball at a climate scientist.

Fuck that. Experts are the best we've got. They are not inerrant, as they will tell you themselves, but we don't know shit so we should STFU and listen to them.
 
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