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2026 Elections: To the Midterms and Beyond!

ericredaxe said:
Nobody (or almost nobody) is OK with the incidents in Minneapolis etc - I think you are overestimating the rage / motivation this will give a big chunk to go out and vote. A "cabbage" is not going to be enough to beat Collins.
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Susan was fine with what happened in Mpls. She was also fine in ending Roe Vs. Wade. And she loves the War with Iran. She'll still win.
 
ericredaxe said:
Curious about his overall favorability in Maine? First impression is that he does not have the same charisma / is as inspiring of a speaker etc as Plattner did, but maybe the "backwoods Mainer" image will speak to enough Mainers to flip the seat? I know the one poll out showed him in a strong position - but wondering as more people hear him how it will play out.
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Not sure if he was born in the county or not? But he certainly has a Canadian French accent. Haven't heard much out of Troy yet. Collins has been running ads saying he supported Graham so apparently they don't have much dirt.
 
walrus said:
Not sure if he was born in the county or not? But he certainly has a Canadian French accent. Haven't heard much out of Troy yet. Collins has been running ads saying he supported Graham so apparently they don't have much dirt.
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He was born in Fort Kent.

Oh, they have dirt! Apparently in a closed door meeting he got so angry about the lack of prescription drug coverage he threw an empty plastic bottle in the general direction of a female legislator. She was so shaken up by the experience she didn't run for reelection, but was able to overcome her affliction to accept a job as a political appointee in the Mills administration.

Granted, it's not raping children or grabbing women by the pussy, but still...
 
When Faux is running a piece that Jackson "struggled" to explain his support for Platner before the rape accusation, you know they have zilch at this point.

It's sort of like how the best thing they can dig up on El Sayed thus far is one time about 10 years ago, as a newly minted MD, when he supposedly said he didn't want to work with anyone over 40. :LOL:
 
FadeToBlack&Gold said:
When Faux is running a piece that Jackson "struggled" to explain his support for Platner before the rape accusation, you know they have zilch at this point.

It's sort of like how the best thing they can dig up on El Sayed thus far is one time about 10 years ago, as a newly minted MD, when he supposedly said he didn't want to work with anyone over 40. :LOL:
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I don't want to work with anyone over the age of 0.
eww people small.jpg
 
Harris is still popular in CD1 but that's not where this election will be decided. Her popularity is soft though, since she was the alternative to the child rapist war criminal. Liz Truss' head of lettuce would be polling well when compared to him.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
Susan is a lock.
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An incumbent that is generally viewed as a moderate (by most people not on these boards) that has for the most part had high favorability ratings is always hard to unseat.

With that said, given the current environment and a downtick in her approval ratings post Dobbs the seat could be in play.

She proved the pollsters wrong before though.... i wonder how many polling misses there have been that were as big as last time against Gideon?

It would also help if the Democrats didn't keep shooting themselves in the foot.
 
Most margins of error in any polling are based on a 95% confidence interval. So in the long run, about 1 out of every 20 polls should miss by more than that.

Then there are rarer and rarer outliers beyond that. But the point is they still happen even when everything is done correctly, and that's not a fault of the polling.

The problem is most people suck at statistics and view anything from, say, 45-55% as being 50/50, anything in the 60/40 range as being 90/10, and everything beyond that as a 100% lock.

In reality, an 80% favorite should still actually lose 20% of the time, otherwise they weren't a 80% favorite.
 
ericredaxe said:
An incumbent that is generally viewed as a moderate (by most people not on these boards) that has for the most part had high favorability ratings is always hard to unseat.

With that said, given the current environment and a downtick in her approval ratings post Dobbs the seat could be in play.

She proved the pollsters wrong before though.... i wonder how many polling misses there have been that were as big as last time against Gideon?

It would also help if the Democrats didn't keep shooting themselves in the foot.
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This is the only universe that exists that reelects Susan Collins after destroying Roe V Wade, backing ICE's new tactics, and supporting the Iran War. Every Republican is Trump and Trump is every Republican.

Hell the gas prices alone would normally be enough. I'm sick and tired of Maga being the exception to every rule.

Also everyone can thank the Democratic Socialists faction for going too far. Can't we have a normal party to vote for? It's just insanity. For all the power the Dems ever had we got Manchin/Collins policies at best. So now the Dems are creating their own Maga extreme on the other side.

It's insanity. This country is DUMB.
 
ericredaxe said:
It would also help if the Democrats didn't keep shooting themselves in the foot.
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In ME, the Dems have not "shot themselves in the foot." When Platner's sexual assault allegation surfaced they responded immediately. The stuff against him before then was ginned up nonsense.

The old narratives aren't holding anymore. The Dems are the serious party of adults with their shit together. The other guys are the gang that couldn't shoot straight, which is a good thing given they are fasc.
 
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