2023 NCAA DIII Championship Tournament

[Scott_TG]

CHAMPIONSHIP DATES

Wednesday 3/8: First Round Games
Saturday 3/11: Quarterfinals
Friday 3/17: Semifinals
Sunday 3/19: Championship

FIRST ROUND
Norwich at Colby
Nazareth at Hamilton
Suffolk at Middlebury

QF:
Colby/Norwich winner at Amherst
Nazareth/Hamilton winner at Adrian
Suffolk/Middlebury winner at Plattsburgh
UW-River Falls at Gustavus Adolphus


Personal thoughts:

For the first round, I think the toughest game will be Norwich at Colby. Norwich is 0-3 against the NESCAC with the closest game being against Midd. They did not score on Trinity or Amherst. Norwich only allowed one goal in the NEHC tourney so they are heating up at the right time so Colby shouldn't look past them.

Hamilton beat Nazareth 4-1 on January 10th and Naz also has losses to Williams, Bowdoin, and Elmira. The only "good" team Naz has beaten is Utica, whose record/reputation is propped up by beating up an abysmal UCHC conference and cheerleading from a certain hockey "journalist" who calls his personal rankings a poll.

Suffolk could challenge Middlebury. They did split the set with Endicott when Endicott was still ranked #13 in the USCHO poll and they did beat Trinity. They didn't win but didn't get blown out in games against Amherst and Adrian. Midd has struggled against good teams, losing to River Falls, Amherst, Hamilton, Plattsburgh and Norwich (the last two were both in OT) and skated to a tie with Endicott.

I think Norwich upsets Colby and Hamilton and Middlebury win their games as expected.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Hamilton beat Nazareth 4-1 on January 10th and Naz also has losses to Williams, Bowdoin, and Elmira. The only "good" team Naz has beaten is Utica, whose record/reputation is propped up by beating up an abysmal UCHC conference and cheerleading from a certain hockey "journalist" who calls his personal rankings a poll.

Nazareth was quite good last year. I saw their playoff game against Elmira. But they seemed to have dropped down a bit this year. They certainly struggled at times.

 

[SHockey98]

CHAMPIONSHIP DATES

Wednesday 3/8: First Round Games
Saturday 3/11: Quarterfinals
Friday 3/17: Semifinals
Sunday 3/19: Championship

FIRST ROUND
Norwich at Colby
Nazareth at Hamilton
Suffolk at Middlebury

QF:
Colby/Norwich winner at Amherst
Nazareth/Hamilton winner at Adrian
Suffolk/Middlebury winner at Plattsburgh
UW-River Falls at Gustavus Adolphus


Personal thoughts:

For the first round, I think the toughest game will be Norwich at Colby. Norwich is 0-3 against the NESCAC with the closest game being against Midd. They did not score on Trinity or Amherst. Norwich only allowed one goal in the NEHC tourney so they are heating up at the right time so Colby shouldn't look past them.

Hamilton beat Nazareth 4-1 on January 10th and Naz also has losses to Williams, Bowdoin, and Elmira. The only "good" team Naz has beaten is Utica, whose record/reputation is propped up by beating up an abysmal UCHC conference and cheerleading from a certain hockey "journalist" who calls his personal rankings a poll.

Suffolk could challenge Middlebury. They did split the set with Endicott when Endicott was still ranked #13 in the USCHO poll and they did beat Trinity. They didn't win but didn't get blown out in games against Amherst and Adrian. Midd has struggled against good teams, losing to River Falls, Amherst, Hamilton, Plattsburgh and Norwich (the last two were both in OT) and skated to a tie with Endicott.

I think Norwich upsets Colby and Hamilton and Middlebury win their games as expected.

I’m not too familiar with these people.. who is the “journalist?” I only know of the USCHO poll.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

I’m not too familiar with these people.. who is the “journalist?” I only know of the USCHO poll.

It's about Twitter...

 

[SHockey98]

It's about Twitter...

Biggs?

 

[Scott_TG]

Biggs?

No, not Biggs.

 

[SHockey98]

No, not Biggs.

Ahhh… initials C.S?

 

[Scott_TG]

Ahhh… initials C.S?

Bingo

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Who's everyone picking in the first round games tonight?

I'm predicting these results, similar to Scott's above.

Hamilton 4-0 over Nazareth
Middlebury 2-0 over Suffolk
Norwich 3-2 over Colby in OT

I'm picking the same winners. But I think Nazareth (who I know are not as good as last year) will play that one closer than you think.

 

[4and20]

Who's everyone picking in the first round games tonight?

I'm predicting these results, similar to Scott's above.

Hamilton 4-0 over Nazareth
Middlebury 2-0 over Suffolk
Norwich 3-2 over Colby in OT

I am going to go with Nazareth Suffolk and Colby just to be different.

 

[Bill-R-]

After one period:
Colby 3 Norwich 0
Middlebury 1 Suffolk 0
Hamilton 1 Nazareth 1

 

[Scott_TG]

After 2:

Colby 4 - Norwich 0
Hamilton 3 - Nazareth 1
Middlebury 3 - Suffolk 0

 

[SHockey98]

It'll be a NESCAC sweep.

Despite a 5-2 score, Colby-Norwich was pretty evenly played. Mules had the better high-danger chances, but Norwich had plenty as well.

Suffolk showed good fight, but Midd showed they are just in a different tier than the Rams. High-skill goals for the Panthers per usual.

Naz kept it close the entire game, but Hamilton dominated the final two periods. Hamilton deserved to win by about 5 or 6, but credit to the Flyers for playing defensively sound.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

Everyone done complaining about the NESCAC (deservedly) getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament?

It’s almost like this Pairwise thing works or something…

 

[SHockey98]

Everyone done complaining about the NESCAC (deservedly) getting four teams into the NCAA Tournament?

It’s almost like this Pairwise thing works or something…

I mean the NESCAC is decisively awesome and the best conference in America. However, pairwise doesn't work with how little cross-region play we get. That's the issue. Colby/Middlebury over Cortland or Elmira was never the issue. It's Colby/Middlebury over Eau Claire/St. Norbert/Augsburg. We flat out do not have the data to make that a reasonable call. I think they're all really good teams.

 

[bodyup88]

I mean the NESCAC is decisively awesome and the best conference in America. However, pairwise doesn't work with how little cross-region play we get. That's the issue. Colby/Middlebury over Cortland or Elmira was never the issue. It's Colby/Middlebury over Eau Claire/St. Norbert/Augsburg. We flat out do not have the data to make that a reasonable call. I think they're all really good teams.

I couldn't agree more with SHockey98. Middlebury has 26 bites at the apple and comes away with 16 wins. Three tries vs. Amherst and goes 0-3, also a loss to River Falls in November. Eau Claire with 22 wins and a 7-4 win over River Falls, then a 1-1 tie at River Falls. Not nearly enough data to make Pairwise the only determinant of admittance to this exclusive club.

 

[bodyup88]

One would think that loss and tie to Connecticut College the last week of January might have done more damage to the Panthers' Pairwise ranking than it did. Looks like their best wins are 4-3 OT and a 3-2 regulation wins over Colby and one over Hamilton. Not sure the strength of schedule argument does much when you don't beat said strong teams.

 

[SHockey98]

One would think that loss and tie to Connecticut College the last week of January might have done more damage to the Panthers' Pairwise ranking than it did. Looks like their best wins are 4-3 OT and a 3-2 regulation wins over Colby and one over Hamilton. Not sure the strength of schedule argument does much when you don't beat said strong teams.

100%. There HAS to be a hybrid method of selection. It's not feasible given how little the regions play each other. The West does not have the margin for error. Like I said, Elmira and Cortland have had their chances. I'm not saying Colby didn't deserve a bid over them (unless we're taking into consideration 21 regular season games). I know for a fact a couple SID's/AD's are not happy about this, and there could be a new pilot program upcoming.

 

[PrezdeJohnson09]

100%. There HAS to be a hybrid method of selection. It's not feasible given how little the regions play each other. The West does not have the margin for error. Like I said, Elmira and Cortland have had their chances. I'm not saying Colby didn't deserve a bid over them (unless we're taking into consideration 21 regular season games). I know for a fact a couple SID's/AD's are not happy about this, and there could be a new pilot program upcoming.

I don't have the time at this second to do the comparison..but I'd love to see what the old criteria comparisons would look like between Colby and Middlebury and those schools in the West that you mention that take into account SOS (Colby and Midd would win that easy with the OOC record of the NESCAC), common opponents, Winning % and record vs. NCAA ranked teams.

A subjective process simply creates more confusion and chaos when it's completely unnecessary. At the end of the day, win your league. Otherwise accept whatever fate you've drawn up for yourselves.

 

[tjoneslo]

Predictions for this weekend:

Colby at Amherst - Amherst 3-0. The Amherst goaltender is a wall, having 13 shutouts as a first year, including two in the NESCAC tournament. Amherst is just flying on offense as well.

Hamilton at Adrian - Hamilton 3-1. Based on nothing more than fan bias. Adrian has always been a tough team to beat. But I know little about their style. This will, I think, come down to the Hamilton defense vs the Adrian offense and if the former can get enough opportunities to score.

Middlebury at Plattsburgh - Plattsburg 2-1. The Cardinals have both speed and forechecking skill over Midd, It was what gave Midd such fits against Amherst, and their previous meetings. This is a huge rivalry and both team are going to be amped for it. But Plattsburgh almost always comes out on top.

Rivers Falls vs Gustavus - Gustavus 5-3. From what I know both of these teams have aggressive, high scoring offensive minded teams. Otherwise this is just a guess.