What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

Status
Not open for further replies.
Christopher Bouzy...whose model called the Senate 3 days ago...says his model has the Dems winning 219. I highly highly doubt it but he has been way closer than anyone else.
 
Handyman said:
Christopher Bouzy...whose model called the Senate 3 days ago...says his model has the Dems winning 219. I highly highly doubt it but he has been way closer than anyone else.
Click to expand...

I think he’s a crack pot for other reasons but I hope he’s right on this
 
Joe Kent won't concede either...whining about cured votes. Funny they didn't care about that before...
 
With recounts and lawsuits coming, to deal with the Manchin Factor, and to put an exclamation point on all this, Ga is still huge. If the Senate votes all fall into place and Ds somehow reach 218 in the House, you can just take me now, Parise. It would give a nice vantage point to watch all those snot-nosed children kicking and screaming on the floor in front of the candy rack.
 
Last edited:
burd said:
With recounts and lawsuits coming, to deal with the Manchin Factor, and to put an exclamation point on all this, Ga is still huge. If the Senate votes all fall into place and Ds somehow reach 218 in the House, you can just take me now, Parise. It would give a nice vantage point to watch all those snot-nosed children kicking and screaming on the floor in front of the candy rack.
Click to expand...

I feel really, really good about the GA runoff, with the GOP bickering about 2024, plus it has to be demoralize GOP voters that they’ve already lost the Senate. It just becomes a lot easier to make excuses and be busy that day if you know your vote won’t be the reason that control was lost.
 
LynahFan said:
I feel really, really good about the GA runoff, with the GOP bickering about 2024, plus it has to be demoralize GOP voters that they’ve already lost the Senate. It just becomes a lot easier to make excuses and be busy that day if you know your vote won’t be the reason that control was lost.
Click to expand...

Goodf point. If Nevada holds, I wonder how many votes that would mean.
 
CO8 called for D
FLIP

The odds of us holding the house and senate before the election (in my opinion and not because of the Nates) was extremely remote. I figured 50-50 and maybe -15 in the house. It felt like shit was just not breaking the way we needed it, the media was being really gross covering Fetterman*, the fact that midterms are never good for the White House**, and just a general angst feeling.

* And never, ever, ever forget this one. They deliberately tried to tank this man because he has a potentially temporary disability that was EXTREMELY easy to accommodate. Never forget and never let them forget.

** I mean, it still wasn't great. Just objectively better than anyone in the last 100 years (W doesn't count because he convinced everyone a 747 was going to fly into their bedroom).
 
dxmnkd316 said:
CO8 called for D
FLIP

The odds of us holding the house and senate before the election (in my opinion and not because of the Nates) was extremely remote. I figured 50-50 and maybe -15 in the house. It felt like **** was just not breaking the way we needed it, the media was being really gross covering Fetterman*, the fact that midterms are never good for the White House**, and just a general angst feeling.

* And never, ever, ever forget this one. They deliberately tried to tank this man because he has a potentially temporary disability that was EXTREMELY easy to accommodate. Never forget and never let them forget.

** I mean, it still wasn't great. Just objectively better than anyone in the last 100 years (W doesn't count because he convinced everyone a 747 was going to fly into their bedroom).
Click to expand...

Considering how little they go after Walker (who is that problematic all the time) what the media did with Fetterman was ridiculous. I am not saying they should not have openly discussed his condition or been honest that he required help in his interview...but they made it sound like he was brain dead to anyone who didn't watch his interviews and debate. And some of them tried to defend it by saying "it isn't us coming up with the narrative" but:

A) that is a lie they flat out did come up with the narrative, they opined on it for days

B) even if they hadn't, they never countered any of the arguments because they are lazy hacks who were just happy to be talked about

And the thing is, that is just one of the egregious ways they covered all of this midterm. I could write an entire textbook on how the journalists at all the major news outlets (tv, print, blog...etc.) failed in their charter and completely violated journalistic ethics. Not all for the same reasons either. Some did it because they are plute suck ups (NYT/WaPo) some did it because they are afraid of being considered too biased towards liberals (most of the networks outside of NBC) and some did it because they suckle at the teet of their corporate fascist overlords. (NBC and CNN) Add in that apparently even the stats nerds bought in* for various reasons and the last 6 months are the perfect example of how not to cover politics in a free society.

And it is only going to get worse. Trump/DeSantis is going to suck the air out of the room for the next 2 years. It won't matter if the GOP wins the House, the media will make it sound like everything wrong in the world is because Biden is so divisive and his agenda is not something the people want. They will hammer his approval rating (like they did Trumps...which funny he vastly overperformed as did Biden this Midterm) and make it sound like the Dems are the reason nothing got done. Then every stumble Biden makes will be ripped to shreds while the media decides whether they like their fascism flavored orange or deep fried. They will pretend Ronny is moderate (despite his abortion stance, his fight with Di$ney, the fact he wants professors to reveal their politics openly, his anti-gay stance...etc) and Trump is a conquering hero that can't be beat and when Biden wins they will all wonder how the narratives they made up in their little corporate bubbles never came to be.

And the answer is simple, not one of them has the balls to actually just talk to the average voter. They are either chicken[bleep] or arrogant depending on who we are talking about. They think if they go to small town Indiana and talk to 12 people at a diner that tells them a story. It doesn't. That is lazy pandering and is like the loser in HS who writes 12 paragraphs of rambling nonsense in his research paper but figures a few lines of stats and anecdotes will be enough to get a good grade. They think if they do the bare minimum they can use lame math and lots of editorializing to fill in the context. They do no critical thinking or critical work. Hell they don't even use basic logic. A 10th grader could have figured out that in a divided country where everything seems 50/50 a "Red Wave" makes no sense...especially when the hottest issue (if you actually talk to people not machines) was fucking ABORTION! They used to be smarter than this, they used to have better long term memory too. Remember all the special elections, the ones that showed the Dems were in better shape than they thought? Remember the Kansas Abortion vote which again showed how important that issue was? All of that was forgotten or ignored by the time October rolled around. Then it was all about how the Dems were trending downwards because of the economy (even though unemployment is at historic lows) and gas prices (which have been trending down not up) and Inflation. (which has been flat and likely to drop soon) They just assumed women stopped caring. They just assumed Dems wouldn't vote in the Midterms, and then they saw polls that agreed with their hypothesis and ran with them instead of even looking into the basics of what the polling said or how it was done. That is why for weeks non-partisans kept trying to tell them it was all wrong.

Ugh...sorry I really needed to rant I guess.




* Watching Nate Silver, RCP and Cook completely buy into the BS narratives of polls that were so obviously terrible even morons who can't do math (like me!) can figure out how lame they are was disheartening on many levels. And it isn't like this is the first time, in 2020 they did the same thing when the GOP started flooding the market with terrible polls (Jason Lewis and Tina Smith are tied!!1!1!) and the nerds bought it hook, line and sinker. They just don't get you can't quantify everything and there is no amount of weighting that can offset a completely biased and ridiculous poll. Also, people are not machines, just because they say something doesn't mean it is true, honest, or accurate. 2016 proved that in spades and yet they still circle jerk every time Rasmussen or YouGov or CBS puts out a new poll like it tells them anything of real value. It doesn't, and what we are learning is it likely never did.
 
Handyman said:
Big rant....
Click to expand...

One thing that really bugs me about modern news channels- they make a HUGE amount of money on political advertising. So as long as they make it close, the campaigns will be forced to spend more and more money on advertising.

Basically, yellow journalism (and by this I mean urine, not the color of the paper), make them a lot of money- and it's quite circular. I would not be surprised to hear that advertising rates for the last month is higher than normal.
 
burd said:
Goodf point. If Nevada holds, I wonder how many votes that would mean.
Click to expand...

It takes away the national aspect from the race and makes it all about Walker, and even GOP voters there are not excited about Walker, so it sure hurts Walker. Maybe there is less urgency for Warnock too as a result, but I have to think it hurts Walker more. Plus, Warnocks voters are used to turning out a second time for him.
 
ericredaxe said:
Somehow I remember Maricopa County favoring dens more….. but maybe I’m misremembering
Click to expand...

It's very purple. Early vote heavily favors the Dems, in person is closer to Red but not as bad as it has been. It's why she needs to do better than 54%.

Plus I believe there is still more votes in Pima which favors Hobbs. Wasserman said there isnt much of a path.

Speaking of Wasserman: https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...KgS-JPfiQ&s=19

I've seen enough: Andrea Salinas (D) defeats Mike Erickson (R) in #OR06. A critical Dem pickup in Oregon's newly added seat.
Click to expand...

Edit: Wasserman has it at 219-216 GOP.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top