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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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WeAreNDHockey said:
Over/under on the number of republican losers who declare victory in November? My guess is at least 2/3rds of them will not officially concede, and at least 50% will outright declare themselves the winner and allege massive voter fraud by democrats.
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So what? They can declare whatever they want, they wont hold the office. Trump declared victory how is his second term going?
 
Handyman said:
So what? They can declare whatever they want, they wont hold the office. Trump declared victory how is his second term going?
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You're ignoring all the GQP election fraud loyalists they've been installing in AG and election official offices in states all over the country.

If not for a few old school Republican party officials in like Arizona, Michigan, and Georgia, who were unwilling to take that final step, we very well might have trump as president still. And those people aren't gonna be there next time. Instead, it will be people perfectly willing to go along with the steal.
 
unofan said:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...for-democrats/

Tl;dr: The GOP really is the dog that caught the car with Dobbs, and it's actually shifted the electorate left.
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The corpses of the guys who built the Republican Derp Machine -- Bill Buckley, Lee Atwater, Irving Kristol, Rich Lowry, Rush Limbaugh, Roger Ailes -- are whirling in their graves. THE WHOLE POINT was to keep the issue as a bloody shirt forever so the derps would keep mashing the feeder bar. The last thing on earth they wanted to do was remove a fundamental right from 51% of the population. Poor Karl Rove, he lived to see it.

Angry Sky Daddy only works for the 25% most mentally deficient humans. The rest actually think straight, and this is lethal to them. The cons don't realize what they have done. They can keep cheating and stealing and lying but the underlying landscape has slipped from 45-55 to 40-60, and that's probably too much to suppress unless you literally end elections.
 
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If only your last paragraph was true. The Senate, gerrymandering (GOP has more opportunities than Dems and they clearly take advantage), plus the Electoral College will take your 60/40 derp-free/derp ratio and will, at worst, equalize it for derps.
 
psych said:
If only your last paragraph was true. The Senate, gerrymandering (GOP has more opportunities than Dems and they clearly take advantage), plus the Electoral College will take your 60/40 derp-free/derp ratio and will, at worst, equalize it for derps.
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As long as we can keep elections actually happening in this country, we will find our way out without bloodshed. In the end, despite my misgivings about many parts of the American experiment, I do believe our democracy can fix its own worst problems. We overthrew the yoke of the Plutes once before. We rid the Democratic party of the Dixiecrats. We can makes things better. We will always be fighting fascists, but we have always fought them. Our institutions are the right tools, we just need the right people to wield them. And while Dems born between roughly 1935 and 1985 failed miserably, Dems born since 1985 seem to have grasped the essentially facts that (1) we are in a fight to the death with the Right, and (2) the gentle and gentile NYT method of conducting that fight is a disaster. We are, slowly and after a half century of pain, finally shedding the contented smirk of the Center for the serious commitment of the Left.
 
psych said:
If only your last paragraph was true. The Senate, gerrymandering (GOP has more opportunities than Dems and they clearly take advantage), plus the Electoral College will take your 60/40 derp-free/derp ratio and will, at worst, equalize it for derps.
Click to expand...

You can only gerrymander so much and the truth is some issues offset the gerrymander anyways. Abortion appears to be one of those issues because what was once thought to be a hail mary chance to hold both houses come November is now almost even money. (and my prediction for the Senate is now the betting favorite because of the idiots the GOP put up) Women exist even in the most gerrymandered districts which is why the GOP is having issues.

That could all change in a week, but if it holds and Pelosi still rules the House then we might have just saved this country. Think how much fun Biden will have with 2 years of little to no obstruction...
 
Handyman said:
So what? They can declare whatever they want, they wont hold the office. Trump declared victory how is his second term going?
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Its comical and curious that so many people are untethered to reality, that's the so what. I'm pretty sure I realize trump is not currently enjoying a second term as president.
 
The so what is stuff like January 6. That's just a preview. Now imagine state houses in purple states.

These morons are armed and a lot of people are going to die next time. The Right is always one demagogue away from a riot and now the entire GOP is one big conspiracy machine, and the leadership doesn't care because they've got their jets fueled and ready for Ibiza, Saint Barths, or Gstaad.
 
Handyman said:
You can only gerrymander so much and the truth is some issues offset the gerrymander anyways. Abortion appears to be one of those issues because what was once thought to be a hail mary chance to hold both houses come November is now almost even money. (and my prediction for the Senate is now the betting favorite because of the idiots the GOP put up) Women exist even in the most gerrymandered districts which is why the GOP is having issues.

That could all change in a week, but if it holds and Pelosi still rules the House then we might have just saved this country. Think how much fun Biden will have with 2 years of little to no obstruction...
Click to expand...

I still think the built-in GOP advantage in the House is too great to overcome, but I feel moderately better about the Senate. If the GOP had incumbents like Toomey in Pa, or less bat-shit (but no less dangerous in my book) candidates in places like Ga, they would still be my pick to win. That said, Nevada will be close, Arizona will be close.
If Democrats defy decades of inevitability by holding the House, with Roe v. Wade being the once-in-a-lifetime crazy catalyst, I want Pelosi to retire on top. God knows she wouldn’t. I know some say the same about Biden, but I won’t go there…
 
Handyman said:
Women exist even in the most gerrymandered districts which is why the GOP is having issues.
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This is a really great point. If only we could convince women to vote in their self interest, there's no way to gerrymander them out of their votes.
 
LynahFan said:
This is a really great point. If only we could convince women to vote in their self interest, there's no way to gerrymander them out of their votes.
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Well that seems to be happening if Kansas and a few other states are to be believed.
 
psych said:
I still think the built-in GOP advantage in the House is too great to overcome, but I feel moderately better about the Senate. If the GOP had incumbents like Toomey in Pa, or less bat-**** (but no less dangerous in my book) candidates in places like Ga, they would still be my pick to win. That said, Nevada will be close, Arizona will be close.
If Democrats defy decades of inevitability by holding the House, with Roe v. Wade being the once-in-a-lifetime crazy catalyst, I want Pelosi to retire on top. God knows she wouldn’t. I know some say the same about Biden, but I won’t go there…
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Lets make a friendly wager (for charity) on the Senate since you seem to think it will defy the odds. I win you give money to a charity I choose you win and I will do the same. I will take the Senate to stay Blue (will even take it expands if it makes you feel better) and you take that it does not.

In a month or so we can talk about adding The House :^)
 
Kepler said:
The corpses of the guys who built the Republican Derp Machine -- Bill Buckley, Lee Atwater, Irving Kristol, Rich Lowry, Rush Limbaugh, Roger Ailes -- are whirling in their graves. THE WHOLE POINT was to keep the issue as a bloody shirt forever so the derps would keep mashing the feeder bar. The last thing on earth they wanted to do was remove a fundamental right from 51% of the population. Poor Karl Rove, he lived to see it.

Angry Sky Daddy only works for the 25% most mentally deficient humans. The rest actually think straight, and this is lethal to them. The cons don't realize what they have done. They can keep cheating and stealing and lying but the underlying landscape has slipped from 45-55 to 40-60, and that's probably too much to suppress unless you literally end elections.
Click to expand...

The gop was supposed to appeal to the idiots not become them. Problem is, you become what you encourage.
 
LynahFan said:
This is a really great point. If only we could convince women to vote in their self interest, there's no way to gerrymander them out of their votes.
Click to expand...

Not only that, but cracking and packing is a double edged sword. In landslide years it can really fuck you.
 
Handyman said:
Lets make a friendly wager (for charity) on the Senate since you seem to think it will defy the odds. I win you give money to a charity I choose you win and I will do the same. I will take the Senate to stay Blue (will even take it expands if it makes you feel better) and you take that it does not.

In a month or so we can talk about adding The House :^)
Click to expand...

I definitely wasn’t clear with my “moderately better” definition of Democrats’ Senate chances earlier. The little I have read, it’s 60/40 Democrats, trending blue. The GOP having weak candidates has to cost them if you’re a Democratic candidate. Fetterman, Barnes, etc. all seem to be running good campaigns, flush with cash. Making it 52/48 D would be huge. But, the House. I’d take you up on your offer with the House. I think it goes red no matter what. What dx states is true, but it’s not true this election. We keep the House? The chains would be undone. Gotta be seen as close to a mandate from the American people if Dems hold the House and expand their lead in the Senate.
 
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