2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

[Kepler]

From 538:

My big takeaway from these results tonight is that campaigns matter. Warnock and his Democratic allies outpaced Walker and the Republicans across the board. Warnock entered the runoff with three times as much campaign cash as Walker. He outspent Walker on TV 2-to-1, and Democratic super PACs outspent their GOP counterparts on TV by $10 million. Warnock ran more ads in all but two media markets — and in two markets that Walker didn’t even touch — and absolutely demolished him in digital advertising on platforms like Google and Facebook. Democratic outside groups spent more overall than their GOP counterparts, including a 2-to-1 advantage on canvassing expenses. And while Walker’s campaign had staff turnover and didn’t always get along with the candidate, Warnock’s team has now guided him through four tough elections in just two years. In a closely divided state where turnout is king, that stuff matters.

Scoob, even you should take time to really savor this. We do come through, sometimes. Warnock is a progressive candidate whose fiscal policy ideas could coexist happily with yours and mine. This is how progress happens. Morale and energy mater, which is why optimism correctly deployed is an effective tool if political pragmatism.

 

[psych]

To add onto that, as we’ve all read, Georgia is very inelastic. There’s almost no such thing as a swing voter. It’s all about turning out the base in Georgia. Kemp and Warnock killed it. Kemp’s side may have done some actual killing.

 

[RaceBoarder]

To add onto that, as we’ve all read, Georgia is very inelastic. There’s almost no such thing as a swing voter. It’s all about turning out the base in Georgia. Kemp and Warnock killed it. Kemp’s side may have done some actual killing.

This is gonna be the new norm across the board for at least the short term (2-6 years).

Everyone has made their choice politically. There is no changing that. You are either A or B. If you stay in the middle you are eaten alive by both sides.

 

[SonofSouthie]

One of the better outcomes is Sinema and Manchin have been spayed and neutered.

 

[Handyman]

To add onto that, as we’ve all read, Georgia is very inelastic. There’s almost no such thing as a swing voter. It’s all about turning out the base in Georgia. Kemp and Warnock killed it. Kemp’s side may have done some actual killing.

Actually, this election showed that to be a little less true. While it is still Red/Blue Georgia definetly has shades of Red. Walker not only underperformed Kemp but he underperformed a lot of base GOPers even in super Red counties. Georgia seems to want the older version of Cons (and by older I mean pre Trump) more than they want this current flavor. I read some chatter that independents in GA (the few I am assuming) helped Warnock as well.

This is a huge exploitable weakness all over the country...and why Biden openly labeling the GOP this way helped him massively in the Midterms.

Kep,

Times has always been behind. Tweet I posted was NBC guy last night who had it at 99%.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1600332171096498178

Laura Ingraham melted down because her Georgia Boy lost.

 

[Kepler]

https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1600332171096498178

Laura Ingraham melted down because her Georgia Boy lost.

Hard to tell from that. She's angry at the RNC, but is it because they fellate Dump and his brownshirts and keep putting up crackpot candidates? Or is she angry because they didn't support The Cause with sufficient fervor? Or is she angry at them for not taking every democrat out onto the Mall and shooting them; ya know, for Freedumb?

Has the crazy old broad accidentally stumbled into the revelation that the Dumpies are a cancer, or is she coming in hot from the Q side, lambasting them for not being crazy enough?

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Georgia seems to want the older version of Cons...

Older and...whiter.

 

[rufus]

I think it's the latter two.

 

[dxmnkd316]

NYT still has it at 2.2 with 5% remaining. From where are your results?

NBC and WaPo.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Actually, the difference between 95% and 99% is a matter of convention. I found this out in 2020 when I was trying to understand remaining votes by county. Some states and news outlets treat the status described by 95% and 99% as the same thing. Once you get to 95%, you're basically saying that 100% of "normal" ballots are in. THen some break it up further to indicate provisional ballot counting status, or absentee status, or even as "100% of votes are counted, we just haven't certified". So that's why my spreadsheet would treat 95% or greater as 100%.

 

[Kepler]

NBC and WaPo.

Thx, Times has caught up now. Closing in on 3%.

 

[LynahFan]

Suck it, MAGAts:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ari...-kris-mayes-beat-republican/story?id=95932251

 

[Swansong]

The outcomes are good, but I'm absolutely horrified by how close these races were.

 

[RaceBoarder]

The outcomes are good, but I'm absolutely horrified by how close these races were.

Agreed...


This is the water getting right up to the top of your sandbag levy. Hopefully the current trends hold and the flood of stupid continues to recede.

 

[Kepler]

The outcomes are good, but I'm absolutely horrified by how close these races were.

The only positive I can come up with is nobody switches to back the GOP anymore. They are a mafia, so it's only them and their offspring. No sane person wakes up one day and decides "hey, I'm going to throw away my citizenship in a democracy and join an authoritarian cult." You have to be raised to do that. The Echo Chamber and the parents themselves have been reinforcing that propaganda in the epistemic closure of their sub-society for thirty years now -- two full generations of homeschooling. Just as there is no way back for those barn animals, there is also no way in for a human being.

It's simply a numbers game. Outgrow them and then remove them gradually from contact with every level of power, federal, state, local, schoolboard, HOA. Cut them out and contain them.

 

[state of hockey]

I think it’ll take more work than that. They’re the ones squirting out four, five, or six, and we’re not reproducing at all or stopping at one. (Two if you’re wealthy)

 

[Kepler]

I think it’ll take more work than that. They’re the ones squirting out four, five, or six, and we’re not reproducing at all or stopping at one. (Two if you’re wealthy)

I know, but:

1. They die earlier and kill each other a lot because they are unhealthy and stupid and violent.

2. Immigration brings in diverse, curious, brave, imaginative people - in other words, the opposite of the Nazis.

3. With Dobbs, they just shanked themselves. Liberals and Leftists are going to have more kids, accidentally at first, and find out it doesn't suck. Our family sizes will increase, after cratering during the Age of Perennial Adolescence of the last 50 years.


The Right had only one thing going for it demographically: the Center and the Left aborted future voters. Well, now we won't as much. And as we don't, we will rediscover that family is more important and fulfilling and joyful than staying a child into your 40s and trying to fill the void with consumption. And, as our numbers increase again, the Nazis are electoral dead meat.

Eat it, MAGATs.

 

[unofan]

I know, but:

1. They die earlier and kill each other a lot because they are unhealthy and stupid and violent.

2. Immigration brings in diverse, curious, brave, imaginative people - in other words, the opposite of the Nazis.

3. With Dobbs, they just shanked themselves. Liberals and Leftists are going to have more kids, accidentally at first, and find out it doesn't suck. Our family sizes will increase, after cratering during the Age of Perennial Adolescence of the last 50 years.


The Right had only one thing going for it demographically: the Center and the Left aborted future voters. Well, now we won't as much. And as we don't, we will rediscover that family is more important and fulfilling and joyful than staying a child into your 40s and trying to fill the void with consumption. And, as our numbers increase again, the Nazis are electoral dead meat.

Eat it, MAGATs.

Lol, educated women are not going back to having 4+ kids as a standard, whether abortion is legal or not. Yeah, the Mormons and whatever few devout educated Catholics are left might, but that's it.

That trend holds worldwide, as women get educated the birthrate declines.

 

[Kepler]

Lol, educated women are not going back to having 4+ kids as a standard, whether abortion is legal or not.

Probably not 4+, no. But maybe 2-3. And men and women will be sharing the duties of child-raising. And our legal system will continue, under the Center-Left, to make greater accommodation for parents and particularly mothers, so it will be far less onerous to have children.

And remember too that while there are dipsh-t fundies broodsows who pump out 5 kids, there are also vast populations of incel conservative geeks who will never touch a woman because they are so repellent. Not to mention their criminality will force more of the Right into prisons which will be perfectly happy to have them as the Jim Crow penal system is wound down.

We won't win the baby wars head-to-head, but we will win overall. And the most important fact is that while in every generation of conservatives there are a few who are bright enough to escape and become liberal, only serious brain damage creates the anomalous case of someone moving left to right given the sick disaster the Right has become. It's practically a one-way transfer at this point.

And finally remember, the Right is already pegged at the top of their child production. Their women are incubators. So *every* tenth of one percent of increase in liberals' family size shivs the Right in the balls.