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2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Today's Scheduled Games

Afternoon Games

Northeast Regional - Worcester
#1 Cornell v. #4 Michigan

West Regional - Loveland
#1 Minnesota Duluth v. #4 Ohio State

Evening Games

Northeast Regional - Worcester
#2 Boston College v. #3 Bemidji State

West Regional - Loveland
#2 Denver v. #3 Maine

I am wondering if you might be able to address 2 questions.
The first being I never have found the PWR table calculated after all the conference championship games ended. I have asked various sources at USCHO but have not gotten a response. Can you point me to a source for that table?
Second, if KRACH is now being used as the simulator after the pairwise picking for these regional games aren't the winners for the first set of games already decided per the team's existing KRACH rating, being its a Monte Carlo simulator & provides the probability of the win ahead of the game?
Thanks!
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

I am wondering if you might be able to address 2 questions.
The first being I never have found the PWR table calculated after all the conference championship games ended. I have asked various sources at USCHO but have not gotten a response. Can you point me to a source for that table?
Second, if KRACH is now being used as the simulator after the pairwise picking for these regional games aren't the winners for the first set of games already decided per the team's existing KRACH rating, being its a Monte Carlo simulator & provides the probability of the win ahead of the game?
Thanks!

I believe if you go to collegehockeyranked.com you can enter in the simulated results to get a full PWR ranking.

KRACH is one of the elements used by the simulator. Theoretically, based purely on KRACH rankings, if you have Team A who is ranked at 300 points, and Team B is ranked at 150 points, Team A should come out ahead in 2 of 3 simulations. Likewise, if Team C is ranked at 450 points, and Team B is ranked at 150 points, then Team C should come out ahead in 3 of 4 simulations. However, if Team B plays Team D, ranked at 100 points, then Team B would be expected to come out ahead in 3 of 5 simulations.

Now, word on the street is that results should be coming shortly out of Worcester...so stay tuned!
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

LLLLeeeetttt'ssss Goooooooo BBBBBBeeeaaavvveeerrrssss!
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Northeast Regional – Worcester

#1 – Cornell v. #4 – Michigan
The Cornell Big Red and the Michigan Wolverines kicked off the 2020 NCAA Tournament this afternoon in Worcester, Massachusetts. While both sides were raring to go and pushing for the opening goal, the men between the pipes, Matthew Galajda for Cornell and Strauss Mann for the Wolverines, had other ideas. Galajda (9 saves) and Mann (7 saves) shut down the skaters in the opening twenty minutes. The best opportunity came with just under eight minutes left when Michigan’s Johnny Beecher was called for tripping, but the Big Red were unable to capitalize. The Wolverines nearly took a lead early in the second period when Cam York unleashed a howitzer from the point, which beat Galajda, but rang off the post. Finally, midway through the second, Sam Malinski found Max Andreev at the top of the far circle, and Andreev’s one-timer snuck between Mann’s pads and Cornell took a 1-0 lead. Cornell went back on the powerplay a few minutes later, and Ben Berard lasered a wrister from the top of the slot that beat Mann glove-side to put the Big Red up 2-0. While Cornell appeared to have the momentum, Michigan would respond. With just under two minutes to play in the middle frame, the Wolverines finally solved Galajda. Will Lockwood won a battle in the corner, and found Nick Pastujov in the slot, who ripped a wrister past Galajda’s blocker and after forty minutes of play, Cornell held a 2-1 advantage. Early in the third period, Michigan pushed for the equalizer, but Galajda made six saves in the opening four minutes of play in the third to keep the Big Red ahead by one. Midway through the final stanza, Michigan received a great opportunity when Alex Green was called for boarding, and the Wolverines went on the man advantage. Michigan put another four shots on goal with the man advantage, but Galajda came up big each time to kill the penalty and keep Cornell up 2-1. As the clock ticked down, the Wolverines ramped up their push. With just over four minutes to play, Nick Blankenburg attempted to pinch along the near boards to keep the puck in the Wolverines offensive zone, but the puck slid into the neutral zone leading to a 2 on 1. Cornell’s Morgan Barron skated in with Brenden Locke, and perfectly timed a saucer pass to Locke who roofed a one-timer past Mann’s outstretched blocker and gave the Big Red a 3-1 advantage. That would be all Galajda would need, as when the clock struck zero, Cornell earned a 3-1 victory and a spot in the Northeast Regional Final tomorrow afternoon.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

This came to us via email this afternoon. You have to love it- providing a hockey fix gets sent out to all the season tix holders and the local paper covering it too :D

Good afternoon,
I hope this e-mail finds you and your family well in these uncertain times. Hopefully this e-mail includes a few tidbits for you to hit pause and think hockey for a few minutes.
In lieu of the game being played on the ice, USCHO.com simulated the Hockey East Semifinals and Championship. After River Hawk Nation crowded Hurricane’s before the game (new location this year), the River Hawks topped Massachusetts Friday night in overtime for a Championship match-up with Maine. There, an Andre Lee wrap-around goal won it for the River Hawks, behind Tyler Wall, who allowed just one goal in the weekend, shutting out Maine and proving he was the conference’s best goalie this season. No word on a the simulated banner going up at Tsongas next fall, but it was fun to read. The Lowell Sun’s Barry Scanlon caught up with Norm on the simulation, watching the River Hawk Hockey East Champion replays on NESN and then some here.
As we officially wrap up the River Hawks 2019-2020 season (although the simulations have a re-match of the Turkey Leg Classic Championship game in Allentown, as UMass Lowell takes on Penn State tonight…stay tuned), we can’t thank you enough for all of your support....

It included a link to the local paper article-
https://www.lowellsun.com/2020/03/22/simulations-suggest-river-hawks-had-success-coming/
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

northeast regional – worcester

#1 – cornell v. #4 – michigan
the cornell big red and the michigan wolverines kicked off the 2020 ncaa tournament this afternoon in worcester, massachusetts. While both sides were raring to go and pushing for the opening goal, the men between the pipes, matthew galajda for cornell and strauss mann for the wolverines, had other ideas. Galajda (9 saves) and mann (7 saves) shut down the skaters in the opening twenty minutes. The best opportunity came with just under eight minutes left when michigan’s johnny beecher was called for tripping, but the big red were unable to capitalize. The wolverines nearly took a lead early in the second period when cam york unleashed a howitzer from the point, which beat galajda, but rang off the post. Finally, midway through the second, sam malinski found max andreev at the top of the far circle, and andreev’s one-timer snuck between mann’s pads and cornell took a 1-0 lead. Cornell went back on the powerplay a few minutes later, and ben berard lasered a wrister from the top of the slot that beat mann glove-side to put the big red up 2-0. While cornell appeared to have the momentum, michigan would respond. With just under two minutes to play in the middle frame, the wolverines finally solved galajda. Will lockwood won a battle in the corner, and found nick pastujov in the slot, who ripped a wrister past galajda’s blocker and after forty minutes of play, cornell held a 2-1 advantage. Early in the third period, michigan pushed for the equalizer, but galajda made six saves in the opening four minutes of play in the third to keep the big red ahead by one. Midway through the final stanza, michigan received a great opportunity when alex green was called for boarding, and the wolverines went on the man advantage. Michigan put another four shots on goal with the man advantage, but galajda came up big each time to kill the penalty and keep cornell up 2-1. As the clock ticked down, the wolverines ramped up their push. With just over four minutes to play, nick blankenburg attempted to pinch along the near boards to keep the puck in the wolverines offensive zone, but the puck slid into the neutral zone leading to a 2 on 1. Cornell’s morgan barron skated in with brenden locke, and perfectly timed a saucer pass to locke who roofed a one-timer past mann’s outstretched blocker and gave the big red a 3-1 advantage. That would be all galajda would need, as when the clock struck zero, cornell earned a 3-1 victory and a spot in the northeast regional final tomorrow afternoon.

lgr!
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And here are the early results out West...

West Regional – Loveland

#1 – Minnesota Duluth v. #4 – Ohio State
The top-seeded and two-time defending National Champions Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs met up with the Ohio State Buckeyes in the opener here in Loveland, Colorado for the first of two West Regional Semifinals. Minnesota Duluth got off to a quick start, as Hobey Baker finalist Scott Perunovich whistled a slapshot past OSU netminder Tommy Nappier to give the Bulldogs a 1-0 just three minutes into the game. Ohio State pushed back strong, and midway through the opening frame earned a powerplay when Quinn Olson hauled down Gustaf Westlund behind the Bulldog net. The Buckeyes would capitalize with the man advantage, as Carson Meyer ripped a wrister from the slot that beat Duluth’s Hunter Shepard on the stick side and knotted the score at 1 apiece. Shepard and Nappier held the skaters off the board the rest of the way in the first period, and after twenty minutes of action, Duluth and Ohio State were tied 1-1. Ohio State controlled the second period of play, drawing two minor penalties, and launching 13 shots on goal. However, Hunter Shepard, going for his ninth consecutive NCAA Tournament victory between the pipes, was up to the task, stopping all 13 attempts on net. Minnesota Duluth nearly took the lead in the waning seconds of the second period when Dylan Samberg’s wrister from the near boards deflected off a Buckeye defensemen and to the stick of Cole Koepke. Unfortunately for the UMD Sophomore, his wrister flew over the top of a wide open net, and through two periods of play, the sides remained tied at 1. Ohio State jumped out again in the third period, launching three shots on goal in the opening 90 seconds, but Shepard again was in control keeping the Buckeyes off the board. Finally, about six minutes into the third frame, Ohio State solved Shepard for the second time. Matt Miller kept a bouncing puck in along the near boards and cycled it behind the Bulldogs’ net where it found Quinn Preston’s stick who in turn found a streaking Ronnie Hein in the slot, who ripped a one-timer past Shepard on the glove side to give the Buckeyes a 2-1 advantage. Duluth pushed into a new gear following the OSU goal, and swarmed Nappier. Midway through the third period, Duluth earned a powerplay, but despite launching four shots on net with the man advantage, were unable to knot the score. Nappier continued his strong play, keeping the Bulldogs off the scoreboard as the clock continued to wind down. However, with just over a minute to play and with an extra attacker, Duluth’s Nick Wolff sent a wrister in on net that Nappier stopped, but Justin Richards found the rebound at the top of the crease and popped the puck over Nappier’s blocker and into the back of the net to tie the game at 2-2. At the end of regulation, the score remained tide and the sides prepared for overtime. Both squads had great opportunities in the extra frame. Duluth’s Quinn Olson corralled a rebound at the bottom of the far circle, but his wrister found nothing but Nappier’s glove, who managed to slide over just in time and glove the puck. Later in overtime, Ohio State’s Tanner Laczynski won a puck-battle behind the UMD net, and found Matt Miller all alone at the top of the slot. Miller unleashed a one-timer that looked destined for the back of the net, but Shepard showed that his glove was equal to Nappier’s, robbing the Buckeye blueliner. Finally, just over halfway through the overtime session, OSU’s Wyatt Ege ripped a wrister from the near blueline that looked like it was going to go wide. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it hit Dylan Samberg’s backside, and landed right on Carson Meyer’s stick in the slot, who roofed a wrister past the out-of-position Shepard to push the Buckeyes into the West Regional final with a 3-2 overtime victory.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

And here are the early results out West...

West Regional – Loveland

#1 – Minnesota Duluth v. #4 – Ohio State
The top-seeded and two-time defending National Champions Minnesota Duluth Bulldogs met up with the Ohio State Buckeyes in the opener here in Loveland, Colorado for the first of two West Regional Semifinals. Minnesota Duluth got off to a quick start, as Hobey Baker finalist Scott Perunovich whistled a slapshot past OSU netminder Tommy Nappier to give the Bulldogs a 1-0 just three minutes into the game. Ohio State pushed back strong, and midway through the opening frame earned a powerplay when Quinn Olson hauled down Gustaf Westlund behind the Bulldog net. The Buckeyes would capitalize with the man advantage, as Carson Meyer ripped a wrister from the slot that beat Duluth’s Hunter Shepard on the stick side and knotted the score at 1 apiece. Shepard and Nappier held the skaters off the board the rest of the way in the first period, and after twenty minutes of action, Duluth and Ohio State were tied 1-1. Ohio State controlled the second period of play, drawing two minor penalties, and launching 13 shots on goal. However, Hunter Shepard, going for his ninth consecutive NCAA Tournament victory between the pipes, was up to the task, stopping all 13 attempts on net. Minnesota Duluth nearly took the lead in the waning seconds of the second period when Dylan Samberg’s wrister from the near boards deflected off a Buckeye defensemen and to the stick of Cole Koepke. Unfortunately for the UMD Sophomore, his wrister flew over the top of a wide open net, and through two periods of play, the sides remained tied at 1. Ohio State jumped out again in the third period, launching three shots on goal in the opening 90 seconds, but Shepard again was in control keeping the Buckeyes off the board. Finally, about six minutes into the third frame, Ohio State solved Shepard for the second time. Matt Miller kept a bouncing puck in along the near boards and cycled it behind the Bulldogs’ net where it found Quinn Preston’s stick who in turn found a streaking Ronnie Hein in the slot, who ripped a one-timer past Shepard on the glove side to give the Buckeyes a 2-1 advantage. Duluth pushed into a new gear following the OSU goal, and swarmed Nappier. Midway through the third period, Duluth earned a powerplay, but despite launching four shots on net with the man advantage, were unable to knot the score. Nappier continued his strong play, keeping the Bulldogs off the scoreboard as the clock continued to wind down. However, with just over a minute to play and with an extra attacker, Duluth’s Nick Wolff sent a wrister in on net that Nappier stopped, but Justin Richards found the rebound at the top of the crease and popped the puck over Nappier’s blocker and into the back of the net to tie the game at 2-2. At the end of regulation, the score remained tide and the sides prepared for overtime. Both squads had great opportunities in the extra frame. Duluth’s Quinn Olson corralled a rebound at the bottom of the far circle, but his wrister found nothing but Nappier’s glove, who managed to slide over just in time and glove the puck. Later in overtime, Ohio State’s Tanner Laczynski won a puck-battle behind the UMD net, and found Matt Miller all alone at the top of the slot. Miller unleashed a one-timer that looked destined for the back of the net, but Shepard showed that his glove was equal to Nappier’s, robbing the Buckeye blueliner. Finally, just over halfway through the overtime session, OSU’s Wyatt Ege ripped a wrister from the near blueline that looked like it was going to go wide. Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, it hit Dylan Samberg’s backside, and landed right on Carson Meyer’s stick in the slot, who roofed a wrister past the out-of-position Shepard to push the Buckeyes into the West Regional final with a 3-2 overtime victory.

Finally beat the Dogs!
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

I am sure that this has been mentioned, but which region plays which in the semifinals in two weeks?
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Northeast vs. Midwest
East vs. West

Thanks

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">SIMULATION: Even the computer knows every NCAA tournament needs a major upset. Carson Meyer’s OT goal pushes #4 seed Ohio State (<a href="https://twitter.com/OhioStateMHKY?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@OhioStateMHKY</a>) past #1 Minnesota Duluth (<a href="https://twitter.com/UMDMensHockey?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@UMDMensHockey</a>), 3-2, at Loveland Regional.</p>— USCHO.com (@USCHO) <a href="https://twitter.com/USCHO/status/1243668076975083525?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">March 27, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Northeast Regional – Worcester

#2 – Boston College v. #3 – Bemidji State
The Boston College Eagles and the Bemidji State Beavers matched up this afternoon in the second Northeast Regional Semifinal in Worcester with a spot in the Regional Final against Cornell on the line. The Eagles struck first early in the first period. Aaron Miller was called for boarding, and BC’s David Cotton made the Beavers pay, ripping a wrister from the bottom of the near circle past BSU’s Zach Driscoll to give Boston College a 1-0 lead. Driscoll held he Eagles in check through the rest of the first, and BC’s Spencer Knight matched his counterpart in net, and after twenty minutes the Eagles held a 1-0 lead. Boston College took a two-goal advantage minutes into the second period when Ben Finkelstein’s blast from the point was redirected by Mike Hardman past Driscoll. Down 2-0, Bemidji State opened things up a bit, and slowly turned the momentum in their favor, but were unable to solve Knight on their 11 shots on goal in the second period, and after two, it was 2-0 BC. The Beaver however would continue their strong play in the third, and midway through the period Bemidji’s Adam Brady found Owen Sollinger in the slot, and Sollinger flung a wrister that beat Knight five-hole, and brought the Beavers back to within one. BSU continued their pressure in the following minutes, and with just over six to play found themselves on the powerplay after Graham McPhee was called for tripping. Brady nearly tied the game on a one-timer from the far circle, but the shot rang of the crossbar. BC killed the rest of the penalty, and Spencer Knight stopped each of BSU last three shots on net the rest of the way, and when the buzzer sounded, it was the Boston College Eagles squeaking past Bemidji State 2-1 and into the Regional Final against Cornell.
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

Northeast Regional – Worcester

#2 – Boston College v. #3 – Bemidji State
The Boston College Eagles and the Bemidji State Beavers matched up this afternoon in the second Northeast Regional Semifinal in Worcester with a spot in the Regional Final against Cornell on the line. The Eagles struck first early in the first period. Aaron Miller was called for boarding, and BC’s David Cotton made the Beavers pay, ripping a wrister from the bottom of the near circle past BSU’s Zach Driscoll to give Boston College a 1-0 lead. Driscoll held he Eagles in check through the rest of the first, and BC’s Spencer Knight matched his counterpart in net, and after twenty minutes the Eagles held a 1-0 lead. Boston College took a two-goal advantage minutes into the second period when Ben Finkelstein’s blast from the point was redirected by Mike Hardman past Driscoll. Down 2-0, Bemidji State opened things up a bit, and slowly turned the momentum in their favor, but were unable to solve Knight on their 11 shots on goal in the second period, and after two, it was 2-0 BC. The Beaver however would continue their strong play in the third, and midway through the period Bemidji’s Adam Brady found Owen Sollinger in the slot, and Sollinger flung a wrister that beat Knight five-hole, and brought the Beavers back to within one. BSU continued their pressure in the following minutes, and with just over six to play found themselves on the powerplay after Graham McPhee was called for tripping. Brady nearly tied the game on a one-timer from the far circle, but the shot rang of the crossbar. BC killed the rest of the penalty, and Spencer Knight stopped each of BSU last three shots on net the rest of the way, and when the buzzer sounded, it was the Boston College Eagles squeaking past Bemidji State 2-1 and into the Regional Final against Cornell.

w00000t!! any day the Beagles lose is a good day! Plus I have a soft spot for bemij-j-ji state. I can never say that right
 
Re: 2020 NCAA Hockey Tournament - What If: A Simulation of the 2019-2020 Postseason

CHN has a different bracket than USCHO which has a different bracket than MyHockey.

Driving me nuts
 
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