2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

He won't win the Senate seat anyway. Hillary thought she was going to carry Georgia and Arizona. Too much Fool's Gold with these Democrats. They can't even hold Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and they blew Iowa and I believe Obama won there twice.

These are all places where different trends are playing out. GA and NC are smartening up and moving towards a blue future. MI, OH, and PA are dumbing down and moving towards a red future. Things change. It isn't a simple pendulum swing over the entire country.

Look at the long term: the crazies hold out in the Mountain West (ID, MT, WY, UT), on the Prairie (NE, OK, KS, I guess WI maybe), in the very worst part of the SEC (LA, AT, TN, MS, AL, FL), and in the Hillbilly Belt (KY, WV, PA, OH, IN, maybe MI).

And. That's. It.

Any place that has a university-information base will pull in the educated who will turn them blue. Just as VA, NM, OR and WA came over to the Free World so NC, GA, TX, and AZ will eventually leave the Slave States.

Our job is to limit the damage and prevent the animals from actually destroying the world between now and then.

 

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

You can include the Dakotas and a majority of MN in that Prairie Belt.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

You can include the Dakotas and a majority of MN in that Prairie Belt.

I wasn't sure about the Dakotae.

MN has always been saved by Minneapolis and the educated there. I hope they aren't going in the wrong direction.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

These are all places where different trends are playing out. GA and NC are smartening up and moving towards a blue future. MI, OH, and PA are dumbing down and moving towards a red future. Things change. It isn't a simple pendulum swing over the entire country.

Look at the long term: the crazies hold out in the Mountain West (ID, MT, WY, UT), on the Prairie (NE, OK, KS, I guess WI maybe), in the very worst part of the SEC (LA, AT, TN, MS, AL, FL), and in the Hillbilly Belt (KY, WV, PA, OH, IN, maybe MI).

And. That's. It.

Any place that has a university-information base will pull in the educated who will turn them blue. Just as VA, NM, OR and WA came over to the Free World so NC, GA, TX, and AZ will eventually leave the Slave States.

Our job is to limit the damage and prevent the animals from actually destroying the world between now and then.

Greenland and Iceland have melted. Too late.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Greenland and Iceland have melted. Too late.

To be fair the existing DNC wasn't doing sh-t, either.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

To be fair the existing DNC wasn't doing sh-t, either.

That's because the DNC thinks STILL to this day they can work with the other side to get things done. And they've never had any support from the other side on this issue. Hell, even Carbon Taxes which I believe is a GOP original idea like Obamacare is an original GOP idea is not supported by those ****ing clowns.

So, Biden, stop saying you can work with the terrorists. You can't. Every day the House should be having a press conference about what they've passed and what Turtle Boy is sitting on. EVERY SINGLE DAY. They need to cudgel them to death. That's exactly Republicans have done and fire has to be fought with fire.

 

[Handyman]

I wasn't sure about the Dakotae.

MN has always been saved by Minneapolis and the educated there. I hope they aren't going in the wrong direction.

We aren't. Don't let Scooby fool ya. The populated areas all trend blue.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

We aren't. Don't let Scooby fool ya. The populated areas all trend blue.

Good. The mental and moral decline of the Rust Belt explains Dump and to some extent Dubya. And if a state turns red then the corruption and bad governance will drive it further into impoverishment and amplify the effect that made it slip in the first place. That's why I assume there's no way out for the prairie and the deep south. Nobody has any reason to move there, so they merely cycle down the reactionary toilet. And I assume Snow Appalachia (OH, PA, MI) is headed there too.

 

[geezer]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

These are all places where different trends are playing out. GA and NC are smartening up and moving towards a blue future. MI, OH, and PA are dumbing down and moving towards a red future. Things change. It isn't a simple pendulum swing over the entire country.

Look at the long term: the crazies hold out in the Mountain West (ID, MT, WY, UT), on the Prairie (NE, OK, KS, I guess WI maybe), in the very worst part of the SEC (LA, AT, TN, MS, AL, FL), and in the Hillbilly Belt (KY, WV, PA, OH, IN, maybe MI).

And. That's. It.

Any place that has a university-information base will pull in the educated who will turn them blue. Just as VA, NM, OR and WA came over to the Free World so NC, GA, TX, and AZ will eventually leave the Slave States.

Our job is to limit the damage and prevent the animals from actually destroying the world between now and then.

Don't write off MI yet. 2018 was unprecedented in that we elected a Democratic woman to every statewide office, by about 8%. A clean sweep. The Trump backlash is alive and well.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

We aren't. Don't let Scooby fool ya. The populated areas all trend blue.

Minnesota is holding but given what I am reading in the paper about Walz and the legislature I'm not going to hold my breath.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Don't write off MI yet. 2018 was unprecedented in that we elected a Democratic woman to every statewide office, by about 8%. A clean sweep. The Trump backlash is alive and well.

I don't get why people are falling under Scooby's spell either. If a state voted Dem every Prez election since 1992, except for last time, I don't think writing off the state is the best idea. That includes PA and WI as well. When Bill Clinton won Arizona in 1996, I don't recall Republicans saying "oh well, looks like we gotta let that one go", or after Obama won Indiana in 2008.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

There's a difference between writing a state off and understanding the long term trends. What part of "the white working class is now permanently right wing" don't you understand?

We may still be able to squeeze some juice out it one more time, but "450 is my truck and my Math SAT" is Republican forever.

The realignment of politics in this country is now stable: poorly educated whites and any straggler white fundamentalists not captured by the first category vs the field. That lumpenproletariot isn't getting any bigger. The GOP's only hope is massive suppression measures, restricting redistricting to citizens, and outright ballot theft. Even then, if we remain a democracy the GOP cannot survive demographically as anything but a regional, white power party. Hence the full-throated embrace of fascism by the right now.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

There's a difference between writing a state off and understanding the long term trends. What part of "the white working class is now permanently right wing" don't you understand?

We may still be able to squeeze some juice out it one more time, but "450 is my truck and my Math SAT" is Republican forever.

The realignment of politics in this country is now stable: poorly educated whites and any straggler white fundamentalists not captured by the first category vs the field. That lumpenproletariot isn't getting any bigger. The GOP's only hope is massive suppression measures, restricting redistricting to citizens, and outright ballot theft. Even then, if we remain a democracy the GOP cannot survive demographically as anything but a regional, white power party. Hence the full-throated embrace of fascism by the right now.

Then why would we write off Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin because they happen to have some working class rural white areas ? Makes no sense especially given Dem dominance in statewide races. Why does Scooby want us to blow off North Carolina which is seeing an influx of educated people?

EDIT: Go Lizzy go! https://iowastartingline.com/2019/0...ren-jumps-out-to-big-lead-in-the-iowa-caucus/

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Then why would we write off Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin because they happen to have some working class rural white areas ? Makes no sense especially given Dem dominance in statewide races. Why does Scooby want us to blow off North Carolina which is seeing an influx of educated people?

EDIT: Go Lizzy go! https://iowastartingline.com/2019/0...ren-jumps-out-to-big-lead-in-the-iowa-caucus/

This is excellent news. She should have a slight advantage in New Hampshire as well. Win both and the momentum might be overwhelming.

North Carolina? More Fools Gold. I thought about moving there once. Forget it.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Its only one poll of course but I like the trajectory of Warren's campaign. With Biden running in place (somewhat surprisingly) and Bernie taking on water, the only logical thing to do is for Sanders to drop out and endorse Warren before the NH primary which should put her over the top.

Regarding the voters, I don't think we should consider every white working class person a Nazi, or put another way, we need more evidence. The fine people of VT, NH, and ME to name a few contain quite a lot of non-college educated whites who aren't completely insane. I'm assuming the same goes for places like Colorado and New Mexico as well. So before we throw in the towel on a place like Iowa, where 3 out of the 4 Reps are Dems and one's a Nazi (Steve King) lets give it another election or two.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Its only one poll of course but I like the trajectory of Warren's campaign. With Biden running in place (somewhat surprisingly) and Bernie taking on water, the only logical thing to do is for Sanders to drop out and endorse Warren before the NH primary which should put her over the top.

Regarding the voters, I don't think we should consider every white working class person a Nazi, or put another way, we need more evidence. The fine people of VT, NH, and ME to name a few contain quite a lot of non-college educated whites who aren't completely insane. I'm assuming the same goes for places like Colorado and New Mexico as well. So before we throw in the towel on a place like Iowa, where 3 out of the 4 Reps are Dems and one's a Nazi (Steve King) lets give it another election or two.

Because. I was on the phone with my mother today and she was telling me that she was watching someone interview a WOMAN of COLOR from Minnesota. She voted for Trump last time. During the interview they asked her will you vote for Trump again? She said yes. During the interview they asked her if she thinks Trump is a racist? Her answer? Oh, he's just ignorant.

Number one rule of this election is this. DO NOT try to convince Trump voters to vote for the Democrat. Go after the voters that stayed home in 2016, or voted 3rd party because they were ignorant. If they voted for Trump they'll probably double down and vote for him again. If any of them actually stay home themselves or flip to Blue then it's all gravy. But, I wouldn't spend a nickle trying to move them.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Then why would we write off Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin because they happen to have some working class rural white areas ? Makes no sense especially given Dem dominance in statewide races. Why does Scooby want us to blow off North Carolina which is seeing an influx of educated people?

EDIT: Go Lizzy go! https://iowastartingline.com/2019/0...ren-jumps-out-to-big-lead-in-the-iowa-caucus/

I'm all for writing off OH already. The others I still want to compete in if only because they all have cities with significant POC pops. But you can see where those end up. Those lower class, unskilled whites are going to keep pumping out children. They have neither the skills not the imagination to leave so they will continue to fester, repeating the cycle of substance abuse and domestic violence generation after generation. POC will grow and flourish and move out of there to better places to live in VA, NC, and GA. When these Rust Belt white trash geezers retire they'll continue to pollute FL making that place even worse.

In 20 years we'll be writing them all off. In the meantime we should keep them on the burner and take our shots whenever we can.

This is not a bad thing in the long run. In the same way it was good for the soul (if not for elections) that we cut the racist south loose, we are in the process of cutting racist Appalachia loose. Those people never belonged in our coalition. They are Morlocks scrabbling for feces in their fetid pits, they have no ability or comprehension to turn their eyes skyward and start thinking of a future beyond their bigoted, blighted biographies. They are a cultural cul de sac, like their southern thumper brethren. Adios.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Because. I was on the phone with my mother today and she was telling me that she was watching someone interview a WOMAN of COLOR from Minnesota. She voted for Trump last time. During the interview they asked her will you vote for Trump again? She said yes. During the interview they asked her if they thing Trump is a racist? Her answer? Oh, he's just ignorant.

Number one rule of this election is this. DO NOT try to convince Trump voters to vote for the Democrat. Go after the voters that stayed home in 2016, or voted 3rd party because they were ignorant. If they voted for Trump they'll probably double down and vote for him again. If any of them actually stay home themselves or flip to Blue then it's all gravy. But, I wouldn't spend a nickle trying to move them.

I agree Scoobs. I'm not trying to convince Nazi's stop being Nazi's. What I don't know and need more evidence on is how many Trump 2016 voters aren't Nazis? I'm sure most of them are, but if say 5% of them have finally woken up Chump is screwed. If its 1% he can squeak by again.

Back of the envelope calculation: Chump got 46% of vote on 63M/137M total votes. Approx 2M of those people are disgruntled Berners who aren't going to make that mistake again (presumably they'd just stay home this time). That puts him at around 44-45% of the vote, but his approval is closer to 42-43 % on average. That means another 3M people have potentially stepped off the crazy train. That would be worth fighting for IMHO if those %'s hold through next fall. What I don't know, again, is who the are. Could be educated whites who were in it for the tax breaks but are now realizing its all a con, or old timey George HW Bush types who can't fathom allowing Vlady Putin to make our foreign policy decision for us. Could be working class people who don't get off on seeing kids in cages. I'd attack Chump from all angles in all places and see what sticks. He could very well win another narrow victory, but its just as likely the bottom falls out.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

TPM ran a story a while back saying it is all but impossible mathematically for Dump to win again without a third party candidate in the race. This brings me back to the Greens. Speaking as somebody well to the left of them on many issues, if the Greens don't swallow hard and not field a Prez candidate this time I swear to God...

As somebody who used to love third parties and who understands full well how the co-optation of the Democratic party by rich f-cks sold us down the river in the '90s and '00s, I would encourage the Green to fold up shop and reintegrate with the Dems as a strong liberal caucus within the party. The CBC doesn't run under the Black Party for a reason. Our first job now -- every one of us; every American citizen -- is to stop the GOP. We have to strip them down to nothing. We need supermajorities of Democrats in every legislative chamber in the country to undo the damage of the last 40 years before we are dead as a nation and as a concept of human dignity and liberty.

We really are fighting the Nazis. So ally up all you people. We can haggle over the emergency room bill after we've stopped the bleeding.

 

[dxmnkd316]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

I agree Scoobs. I'm not trying to convince Nazi's stop being Nazi's. What I don't know and need more evidence on is how many Trump 2016 voters aren't Nazis? I'm sure most of them are, but if say 5% of them have finally woken up Chump is screwed. If its 1% he can squeak by again.

Back of the envelope calculation: Chump got 46% of vote on 63M/137M total votes. Approx 2M of those people are disgruntled Berners** who aren't going to make that mistake again (presumably they'd just stay home this time). That puts him at around 44-45% of the vote, but his approval is closer to 42-43 % on average. That means another 3M people have potentially stepped off the crazy train. That would be worth fighting for IMHO if those %'s hold through next fall. What I don't know, again, is who the are. Could be educated whites who were in it for the tax breaks but are now realizing its all a con, or old timey George HW Bush types who can't fathom allowing Vlady Putin to make our foreign policy decision for us. Could be working class people who don't get off on seeing kids in cages.

I agree, with one exception:

** Source??

I'd attack Chump from all angles in all places and see what sticks. He could very well win another narrow victory, but its just as likely the bottom falls out.

This is dead on, 100% correct.