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2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

U.S. Politics
Odds to Win the 2020 Presidential Election
08:00 PM
2001 Donald Trump -110
2006 Elizabeth Warren +700
2004 Joe Biden +750
2002 Bernie Sanders +900
2003 Kamala Harris +1400
2068 Andrew Yang +2200
2060 Pete Buttigieg +2800
2025 Tulsi Gabbard +4000
2047 Beto ORourke +6600
2007 Cory Booker +6600
2017 Amy Klobuchar +10000
2069 Marianne Williamson +10000
2005 Mike Pence +10000
2015 Julian Castro +12500
2061 Bill de Blasio +15000
2057 Jay Inslee +15000
2050 John Hickenlooper +15000
2008 Kirsten Gillibrand +15000
2070 Michael Bennet +15000
2065 Seth Moulton +15000

I feel like Cory Booker is probably "the best bet" right now.

Pence.

What does Dump's -110 mean? A $1000 bet wins $890 more?
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

So a positive x means $100 gets you x, and a negative y means y gets you $100.

(i.e., -200 would mean a $200 bet wins $100, +200 means a $100 bet wins $200)

Right?

So, +200 = -50?
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

-110 = You bet 110, you win 100 on top of your original bet
+110 = You bet 100, and you win 110 on top of your original bet
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

So a positive x means $100 gets you x, and a negative y means y gets you $100.

(i.e., -200 would mean a $200 bet wins $100, +200 means a $100 bet wins $200)

Right?

So, +200 = -50?

Yeah, but you'd never see -50, you'd see +200. Just like you'd never see +50, you'd see -200 instead. Lowest most casinos will go for an absolute value is -110, which indicates a tossup. After that they'd switch to positive numbers to indicate an underdog. Occasionally you'll see -105 paired with -115 to indicate something like a 1-point underdog.

Most Vegas books have a spread of 20 for their NFL moneylines. So if the favorite was -160, the underdog would be +140, for instance.
 
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Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

All signs point there. He has a 50-point lead in the primary and a 13-point lead in the general.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

All signs point there. He has a 50-point lead in the primary and a 13-point lead in the general.

Yes. It's where he belongs. Good decision on both ends.

The correct place for the "I won in a purple state!" Democrats is there in that purple state. They build their careers, we make inroads into Dumbf-ckistan, and we both deny fascists seats and governorships. What's not to love?

I'd like to see Bullock, Castro, Inslee, Klobuchar, O'Rourke, Ryan, and Sestak likewise drop out, go back to their states, win elections there, and help us build our state and local organizations.
 
I'd like to see ... O'Rourke, ... drop out, go back to their states, win elections there, and help us build our state and local organizations.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">. <a href="https://twitter.com/BetoORourke?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@BetoORourke</a> says running for Senate "would not be good enough for El Paso." He says, "We must take the fight directly to the source of this problem."</p>— David Siders (@davidsiders) <a href="https://twitter.com/davidsiders/status/1162002117789245440?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">August 15, 2019</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

It's all gamesmanship. You aim high and suit your rhetoric to it right up until... you don't.

I think we may all live long enough to see a TX Senate delegation of 2 Dems, whether that's O'Rourke and Castro or somebody else. I know it's a stupid state and I know the GOP cheats and will only cheat harder as they dwindle, but declaring a pogrom on Latinos is likely not the most effective way for the GOP to recruit them.

I hope in my lifetime there is a solid blue Southwest from LA to the Sabine River.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

I think we may all live long enough to see a TX Senate delegation of 2 Dems, whether that's O'Rourke and Castro or somebody else. I know it's a stupid state and I know the GOP cheats and will only cheat harder as they dwindle, but declaring a pogrom on Latinos is likely not the most effective way for the GOP to recruit them.

Similar to Colorado, we need a couple million more Californians to move in first to swing it.
 
Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers IV: Culling the Herd

Beto's ego is getting the better of him.

He won't win the Senate seat anyway. Hillary thought she was going to carry Georgia and Arizona. Too much Fool's Gold with these Democrats. They can't even hold Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania and they blew Iowa and I believe Obama won there twice.
 
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