2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Except he is right. You can talk context all you want you flip 200k Anti-Hills in 3 states Trump goes down in 2020. You can pretend that isnt a fundamental truth because of other candidates that lost but they lost for other reasons. Kerry didnt lose for the same reason Hillary lost nor did Al Gore.

The funny thing is for someone who is whining that the Rube is ignoring context you are doing the same ****ed thing. People stayed home where it mattered most. They didnt do it for any other reason than they didnt like the candidate.

There were many factors involved. And you and Rube point to one as being the only one? Really?

No, no, and no.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

This is another reason why I'd love Stacey Abrams to make a Senate bid in 2020. She can really drive turnout above and beyond what the top of the ticket is doing.

Also, the more strong black candidates downballot the more black turnout if we don't have a black nominee.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Agreed. Its more like Klobucher with the stupid instead of with the shade. I don't understand why we're trying to eat our own.

Regarding where you campaign, you can't ignore driving up vote totals in educated suburbs. Even if they're in Georgia or Arizona or Texas. Forces GOP to spend resources on these places and helps you win down ballot (think Obama's 2008 campaign). Money won't be a problem for either side in the upcoming election.

This is another reason why I'd love Stacey Abrams to make a Senate bid in 2020. She can really drive turnout above and beyond what the top of the ticket is doing.

Nobody is saying not to campaign there, we are saying you dont campaign there IN SPITE OF the places you need to win. You go there when you have sufficiently shored up the base and the number to win. The Clintons just assumed it was shored up (ignoring people on the ground saying otherwise) and decided to try and showboat as they crossed the goal line. They fumbled the ball.

Have your ducks in a row then throw some money at Red States...but not before.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Odd that people are pooh poohing the unprecedented and coordinated Russian effort with the GOP. People have a tendency to believe that would never work on their preferred candidate. Prepare to be surprised is all I have to say about that. So from my state the Russians are going to come after Warren for example with everything they have. Look for doctored photos on facebook with her dressed up in Native American gear if it looks like she's doing well in the NH primary.

People are already underestimating Trump and whether he can win again. Was listening to WCCO (CBS Radio in the Twin Cities) this morning and they had call ins record on their reactions to Klobuchar. One voter called in and said she was too "partisan". Another voter called in and said she was a baby killer and hated veterans.

Never underestimate the fact that the Republicans have more voters that will automatically vote for them than the Democrats do. Democrats are wishy washy and easily swayed to do stupid moronic things with their right to vote.

 

[5mn_Major]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Agreed. Its more like Klobucher with the stupid instead of with the shade. I don't understand why we're trying to eat our own.

Klobuchar and her new constituency: GOP senators. Her problem is that she gets things done. And I'm fine with that.

Republicans gush over Klobuchar
GOP senators praised the Minnesota Democrat for her deal-cutting ways — even as they worried it could doom her presidential bid.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/02/11/klobuchar-president-republicans-1159345

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Odd that people are pooh poohing the unprecedented and coordinated Russian effort with the GOP. People have a tendency to believe that would never work on their preferred candidate. Prepare to be surprised is all I have to say about that. So from my state the Russians are going to come after Warren for example with everything they have. Look for doctored photos on facebook with her dressed up in Native American gear if it looks like she's doing well in the NH primary.

I'm taking Russian interference as a wash when comparing 2016 to 2020. We're looking for differences. The most important difference is the voters will be comparing Dump promises to Dump performance. The next is we won't be saddled with Hillary this time.

After that... there may not be any real differences, unless the economy implodes.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

There were many factors involved. And you and Rube point to one as being the only one? Really?

No, no, and no.

It isnt the only one...no one said that. It is the most basic one and the easiest to fix. You dont like it because it ruins your "we are all screwed" bit. It isnt like we dont know they didnt like Hillary it was pretty common knowledge.

Trump will get the exact same amount of votes he got last time...the Dems show up they win. Hell they snored their way through last election and still almost one. They were apathetic on the candidate and it killed them. It isnt like they need Obama numbers to win they need Hillary + 200k divided up by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It isnt like they have to climb Everest or something to get there I am guessing that is within the margin of error.

No one is denying the other factors involved, what we are saying is even with all of that you get the people who stayed home because of Hillary in those states to vote and the result changes even with those factors. Think of it like a football game. Late in the game the team is driving with a shot to win but the QB throws a INT so they lose. Now a million things in that game contributed to the loss and in reality you could argue any of them are the reason but the fundamental truth is the INT is what ultimately prevented them from winning.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

It isnt the only one...no one said that. It is the most basic one and the easiest to fix. You dont like it because it ruins your "we are all screwed" bit. It isnt like we dont know they didnt like Hillary it was pretty common knowledge.

Trump will get the exact same amount of votes he got last time...the Dems show up they win. Hell they snored their way through last election and still almost one. They were apathetic on the candidate and it killed them. It isnt like they need Obama numbers to win they need Hillary + 200k divided up by Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. It isnt like they have to climb Everest or something to get there I am guessing that is within the margin of error.

No one is denying the other factors involved, what we are saying is even with all of that you get the people who stayed home because of Hillary in those states to vote and the result changes even with those factors. Think of it like a football game. Late in the game the team is driving with a shot to win but the QB throws a INT so they lose. Now a million things in that game contributed to the loss and in reality you could argue any of them are the reason but the fundamental truth is the INT is what ultimately prevented them from winning.

Kerry
Gore
Dukakis
Mondale

23 Trillion dollars gone.

No, I did not get a tax cut.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

I'm taking Russian interference as a wash when comparing 2016 to 2020. We're looking for differences. The most important difference is the voters will be comparing Dump promises to Dump performance. The next is we won't be saddled with Hillary this time.

After that... there may not be any real differences, unless the economy implodes.

A second shutdown over border security is not going to help Trump in any way.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

A second shutdown over border security is not going to help Trump in any way.

The narrative on that changed this morning. We'll see.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Kerry
Gore
Dukakis
Mondale

23 Trillion dollars gone.

No, I did not get a tax cut.

Good god now you arent even bothering to post a sentence for your bit you are just listing talking points. You are Faux News without the hot ladies being groped by the staff

I do love how context matters in the Hillary election but it doesnt when comparing the various Dem candidates over the years.

Be careful Scooby you play a character too long you become the character

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

The narrative on that changed this morning. We'll see.

Everything I see says nothing has changed. How exactly has the narrative changed?

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Good god now you arent even bother to post a sentence for your bit you are just listing talking points. You are Faux News without the hot ladies being groped by the staff

I do love how contexts matters in the Hillary election but it doesnt when comparing the various Dem candidates over the years.

Be careful Scooby you play a character too long you become the character

I'd argue the Democrats have been running the same stupid script for 40+ years. Yes, every candidate was different and yes every election was different. But the Democrats have had the same problems in every single election.

The most amazing aspect of all of this is the Republicans win in spite of themselves. They've lied for decades and people continue to believe them over and over and over again. Listening to the radio this morning reminded me again about how many mindless zombies we have in this electorate.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

People are already underestimating Trump and whether he can win again. Was listening to WCCO (CBS Radio in the Twin Cities) this morning and they had call ins record on their reactions to Klobuchar. One voter called in and said she was too "partisan". Another voter called in and said she was a baby killer and hated veterans.

Never underestimate the fact that the Republicans have more voters that will automatically vote for them than the Democrats do. Democrats are wishy washy and easily swayed to do stupid moronic things with their right to vote.

This is hard for me to say, but, Scooby's absolutely right. On every point above, he is right.

We can't underestimate Dump. He has the benefit of the strongest forces in American politics and culture. American politics is built for dummies to thrive. The messages we pound into our citizens' heads from birth to death are about the brave story of little guy, the Jeffersonian nobility of the simple farmer, and the pomposity of that expert who thinks he's smarter than you just because, well, he's smarter than you.

Every American cultural trope has been carefully constructed to soothe the dummies so they will keep on doing all those gross, disgusting jobs which are the only ones they have the mental capacity for, for infinitesimal reward, and a once-per-generation chance to be slaughtered in resource wars that enrich the wealthy.

Those who challenge Dump challenge all the great stupid myths of America. And the vast majority of voters would rather keep believing those lies than face up to the brutal truth of their worthless lives.

(Do you think this will go good on a bumper sticker?)

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Everything I see says nothing has changed. How exactly has the narrative changed?

From what I have read and heard the Democrats have gotten them to cry uncle on the money for the wall and are now asking for something else, essentially moving the goalposts. I like the strategy but if it ultimately shuts down the government I don't like it.

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Remember also that Clinton never would have won his election without Ross Perot.

This is a myth that is debunked.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

This is a myth that is debunked.

Fair enough. I will correct myself and not go with that line anymore.

 

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

From what I have read and heard the Democrats have gotten them to cry uncle on the money for the wall and are now asking for something else, essentially moving the goalposts. I like the strategy but if it ultimately shuts down the government I don't like it.

Yeah that was the narrative last night so it hasnt changed. It is about the detention centers at the border which is part of reigning in ICE. They dont want to give them billions and let ICE just put every immigrant in jail indefinitely. Makes sense not to give the money without covering for the (not so) unintended consequences. (since you know that is what the GOP wants...ICE with unfettered control down there)

I never like the idea of a shutdown but the Dems have to continue playing hardball. When you make your opponent bend a knee you dont let them back up you keep them down. This is politics you play to win. The GOP is scared [beepless] of another shutdown for a ton of reasons on top of the fact that it might force the Dummy to declare a national emergency which then sets a precedent they know will screw them if and when a Dem wins the White House again.

 

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Yeah that was the narrative last night so it hasnt changed. It is about the detention centers at the border which is part of reigning in ICE. They dont want to give them billions and let ICE just put every immigrant in jail indefinitely. Makes sense not to give the money without covering for the (not so) unintended consequences. (since you know that is what the GOP wants...ICE with unfettered control down there)

I never like the idea of a shutdown but the Dems have to continue playing hardball. When you make your opponent bend a knee you dont let them back up you keep them down. This is politics you play to win. The GOP is scared [beepless] of another shutdown for a ton of reasons on top of the fact that it might force the Dummy to declare a national emergency which then sets a precedent they know will screw them if and when a Dem wins the White House again.

Plus its not like the Dems are making a stand on a trivial issue here. Kids being put in cages so knuckledraggers can jerk off to illegals being tortured is a policy they d amn well should take issue with.

 

[SJHovey]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers III: Weekend at Bernie's

Nobody is saying not to campaign there, we are saying you dont campaign there IN SPITE OF the places you need to win. You go there when you have sufficiently shored up the base and the number to win. The Clintons just assumed it was shored up (ignoring people on the ground saying otherwise) and decided to try and showboat as they crossed the goal line. They fumbled the ball.

Have your ducks in a row then throw some money at Red States...but not before.

Klobucher needs to spend and campaign in Iowa or one or two other early states, and do so effectively.

She'd be a perfectly fine President, and probably better than most of the rest of the possibles we've seen so far. But, she's not independently wealthy. She's got the charisma of rock. There is a big likelihood that she gets like 4% support in Iowa, 5% in New Hampshire, then folds the tent before the first big primary date because no one is sending her money.