Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Well I saw a number of team threads bringing up points about the tournament so let's bring the comments, observations and predictions here.
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2020 B1G Tournament
- Thread starter Hockeybuckeye
- Start date
klbaum1077
Registered User
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
You know where i stand on this format. The second round should be best 2 of 3. I saw your post elsewhere about what is more important or valued more. I give more credit to a 6 month process than getting hot over 3 weekends. If it were me the auto bid would go to the regular season champion.
You know where i stand on this format. The second round should be best 2 of 3. I saw your post elsewhere about what is more important or valued more. I give more credit to a 6 month process than getting hot over 3 weekends. If it were me the auto bid would go to the regular season champion.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Then you also saw where I said the conference doesn't do the 3 game second round or championship because they want what teams make it to the dance to be reasonably healthy to make a strong push for the conference.
Let's face it the NCAA tournament is the real brass ring and the regular season and tournament titles are just a bit of extra icing on that cake.
You know where i stand on this format. The second round should be best 2 of 3. I saw your post elsewhere about what is more important or valued more. I give more credit to a 6 month process than getting hot over 3 weekends. If it were me the auto bid would go to the regular season champion.
Then you also saw where I said the conference doesn't do the 3 game second round or championship because they want what teams make it to the dance to be reasonably healthy to make a strong push for the conference.
Let's face it the NCAA tournament is the real brass ring and the regular season and tournament titles are just a bit of extra icing on that cake.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
I just don't see any one team as dominate in the B1G this season and the season's points don't give an accurate perspective to how much parity there is to those outside the conference.
Any one of the 7 teams could realistically win the tournament in my opinion and home ice will only be a slight advantage.
I just don't see any one team as dominate in the B1G this season and the season's points don't give an accurate perspective to how much parity there is to those outside the conference.
Any one of the 7 teams could realistically win the tournament in my opinion and home ice will only be a slight advantage.
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Wisconsin will not win.
They’re on a 4-1-1 run right now, but I figure there’s a regression to the mean on the horizon more than I see them as having finally turned the corner.
The bad turnovers and anemic defending hasn’t disappeared, they just haven’t been paying for it like usual.
Wisconsin will not win.
They’re on a 4-1-1 run right now, but I figure there’s a regression to the mean on the horizon more than I see them as having finally turned the corner.
The bad turnovers and anemic defending hasn’t disappeared, they just haven’t been paying for it like usual.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
I hate to say it but they played fairly decent last weekend.
Wisconsin will not win.
They’re on a 4-1-1 run right now, but I figure there’s a regression to the mean on the horizon more than I see them as having finally turned the corner.
The bad turnovers and anemic defending hasn’t disappeared, they just haven’t been paying for it like usual.
I hate to say it but they played fairly decent last weekend.
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Yeah, probably the best they’ve looked since the UMD sweep early this year.
As much as I want to make a more concerted effort to be less negative in my life, I stand by my reasoning. My expectations are very, very low.
Yeah, probably the best they’ve looked since the UMD sweep early this year.
As much as I want to make a more concerted effort to be less negative in my life, I stand by my reasoning. My expectations are very, very low.
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
A little sandbagging perhaps?My expectations are very, very low.
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
So if Wisconsin somehow takes the weekend, would that mean OSU is out? Being 11th is REALLY close to not being in, and getting beaten twice would be pretty bad.
Other than PSU (and maybe OSU) everyone must win it all to get to the figure skate.
I hate the format, too. I'm STILL mad that the B1G never once promoted the tournaments in Minneapolis or Detroit- which resulted in lower turn out than the CCHA did when we visited that. Had they just gotten to that level, it would have been a fun weekend. Instead of actually pushing that for a fun and mixed weekend, the B1G just showed all of us their contempt for college hockey and just said "you deal with it". Had they really done a good job at that, we'd all have one more weekend of potential playing time instead of heading into the tournament this weekend.
And it would be nice if just one more school added- 8 teams in best of 3 for one weekend, and then followed by final 4 the next. Would work great.
Oh, well, gotta deal with what we have.
Our weekend is really up to how MSU deals with our team. Do they do what Notre Dame did? If yes- we lose. If no- maybe we get some scoring back and take it. Still, better than last season where we just needed ONE point in the last two weekends to host at Yost, and got swept for the last 6 games. Hosting is a big deal for this team.
So if Wisconsin somehow takes the weekend, would that mean OSU is out? Being 11th is REALLY close to not being in, and getting beaten twice would be pretty bad.
Other than PSU (and maybe OSU) everyone must win it all to get to the figure skate.
I hate the format, too. I'm STILL mad that the B1G never once promoted the tournaments in Minneapolis or Detroit- which resulted in lower turn out than the CCHA did when we visited that. Had they just gotten to that level, it would have been a fun weekend. Instead of actually pushing that for a fun and mixed weekend, the B1G just showed all of us their contempt for college hockey and just said "you deal with it". Had they really done a good job at that, we'd all have one more weekend of potential playing time instead of heading into the tournament this weekend.
And it would be nice if just one more school added- 8 teams in best of 3 for one weekend, and then followed by final 4 the next. Would work great.
Oh, well, gotta deal with what we have.
Our weekend is really up to how MSU deals with our team. Do they do what Notre Dame did? If yes- we lose. If no- maybe we get some scoring back and take it. Still, better than last season where we just needed ONE point in the last two weekends to host at Yost, and got swept for the last 6 games. Hosting is a big deal for this team.
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
A little sandbagging perhaps?
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
CHN’s pairwise probability matrix has them at 6% chance to win their tourney.
That’s probably 5-6% better than any other conference 7-seed (likely to change once we see the Nacho and HOCKEY RAST fields). I guess that’s something.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
I tell you Alpha it's crazy how expectations have gone out the window from one weekend to the next this season. Personally I'd like to see Ohio State & Michigan advance and have you down here which would be where we met last time in the playoffs, at Nationwide Arena, the Jackets home ice but what I'd like to see and what will happen next weekend is anybody's guess.
I tell you Alpha it's crazy how expectations have gone out the window from one weekend to the next this season. Personally I'd like to see Ohio State & Michigan advance and have you down here which would be where we met last time in the playoffs, at Nationwide Arena, the Jackets home ice but what I'd like to see and what will happen next weekend is anybody's guess.
ExileOnDaytonStreet
Drunkard
So if Wisconsin somehow takes the weekend, would that mean OSU is out? Being 11th is REALLY close to not being in, and getting beaten twice would be pretty bad.
CHN currently has them as a 56% chance to get an at-large. But I’d imagine dropping two to a ~30 PWR team won’t help much.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Some have brought it up on your team threads but woman's basketball gets the nod over our tournament on BTN.
Do they REALLY bring in more viewers?
Some have brought it up on your team threads but woman's basketball gets the nod over our tournament on BTN.
Do they REALLY bring in more viewers?
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers & Maryland don't have D1 hockey programs, and thus a following. But every one has a women's basketball team.
My guess is that they do.Some have brought it up on your team threads but woman's basketball gets the nod over our tournament on BTN.
Do they REALLY bring in more viewers?
Northwestern, Illinois, Purdue, Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Rutgers & Maryland don't have D1 hockey programs, and thus a following. But every one has a women's basketball team.
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Wisconsin has a HUGE spoiler role to play this weekend. OSU is particularly PWR vulnerable right now (6-7-3 since Jan.). If Wis wins the 1st round, OSU will drop like a rock and most likely their season is over. Even one L against Wis. and OSU will lose a lot of PWR traction and most likely be on the bubble depending on the outcome of Gophers/ND (series), Mass-Lowell/UConn and Maine/Providence.
BTW the CHN's PPM is based upon KRACH making their MLE methodology essentially meaningless. Randomly assigned outcomes may avoid an availability heuristic, but there are obvious confounds in their inferential data. The CHN's assumption that each data point is generated independently and represents a Gaussian distribution is not true for all data points, therefore it is not a pure omnibus probability density model.
Wisconsin has a HUGE spoiler role to play this weekend. OSU is particularly PWR vulnerable right now (6-7-3 since Jan.). If Wis wins the 1st round, OSU will drop like a rock and most likely their season is over. Even one L against Wis. and OSU will lose a lot of PWR traction and most likely be on the bubble depending on the outcome of Gophers/ND (series), Mass-Lowell/UConn and Maine/Providence.
BTW the CHN's PPM is based upon KRACH making their MLE methodology essentially meaningless. Randomly assigned outcomes may avoid an availability heuristic, but there are obvious confounds in their inferential data. The CHN's assumption that each data point is generated independently and represents a Gaussian distribution is not true for all data points, therefore it is not a pure omnibus probability density model.
Hockeybuckeye
Well-known member
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
OSU like many teams was dealing with a lot of guys not 100% the second half of the season but was reasonably healthy last weekend and even finally had CJ Regula back after his fractured neck back in January against ironically Wisconsin.
Wisconsin came in and played the spoiler denying OSU their first back to back titles in program history. If that's not incentive for OSU to bring it all this weekend along with to save their season and end Wisconsin's as the Thank You then I don't know what is.
Wisconsin has a HUGE spoiler role to play this weekend. OSU is particularly PWR vulnerable right now (6-7-3 since Jan.). If Wis wins the 1st round, OSU will drop like a rock and most likely their season is over. Even one L against Wis. and OSU will lose a lot of PWR traction and most likely be on the bubble depending on the outcome of Gophers/ND (series), Mass-Lowell/UConn and Maine/Providence.
BTW the CHN's PPM is based upon KRACH making their MLE methodology essentially meaningless. Randomly assigned outcomes may avoid an availability heuristic, but there are obvious confounds in their inferential data. The CHN's assumption that each data point is generated independently and represents a Gaussian distribution is not true for all data points, therefore it is not a pure omnibus probability density model.
OSU like many teams was dealing with a lot of guys not 100% the second half of the season but was reasonably healthy last weekend and even finally had CJ Regula back after his fractured neck back in January against ironically Wisconsin.
Wisconsin came in and played the spoiler denying OSU their first back to back titles in program history. If that's not incentive for OSU to bring it all this weekend along with to save their season and end Wisconsin's as the Thank You then I don't know what is.
Last edited:
wolverineTrumpet
not particularly bad
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
I agree that playing well over the whole season deserves more credit than being hot for a few weekends. However, I like that the autobid goes to the tourney champ. It gives the conference an opportunity for more teams in the NCAA tourney, and it gives every team something to continue to play for. In theory the team winning the regular season championship should be sitting high enough in the pairwise that they're going without needing an autobid. That is the logic used by conferences giving the autobid to their tourney champ.
You know where i stand on this format. The second round should be best 2 of 3. I saw your post elsewhere about what is more important or valued more. I give more credit to a 6 month process than getting hot over 3 weekends. If it were me the auto bid would go to the regular season champion.
I agree that playing well over the whole season deserves more credit than being hot for a few weekends. However, I like that the autobid goes to the tourney champ. It gives the conference an opportunity for more teams in the NCAA tourney, and it gives every team something to continue to play for. In theory the team winning the regular season championship should be sitting high enough in the pairwise that they're going without needing an autobid. That is the logic used by conferences giving the autobid to their tourney champ.
ScoobyFanClub
Registered User
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Do you expect any of us to understand one friggin word of that? Maybe you can write them and suggest changes.
BTW the CHN's PPM is based upon KRACH making their MLE methodology essentially meaningless. Randomly assigned outcomes may avoid an availability heuristic, but there are obvious confounds in their inferential data. The CHN's assumption that each data point is generated independently and represents a Gaussian distribution is not true for all data points, therefore it is not a pure omnibus probability density model.
Do you expect any of us to understand one friggin word of that? Maybe you can write them and suggest changes.
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
I'll try to simplify SteveO's comments with my own....(ha ha making that work welll....)
CHN probably takes the KRACH ratings and does a few thousand random runs of the test of the season with KRACH ratings as odds for 'who wins each game'. But, that method has flaws: For one, based on last week, does OSU have UW's number? Are those games really a random draw? Probably not.
Further, to what extent can you actually make predictions in college hockey? Not a large extent. There are only a few games left, really, and hockey has a great deal of randomness to it anyway. Further, statisticians will tell you that with the number of games left to be played here, it's more likely that something strange happens than that nothing strange happens.
So, don't pay much attention to predictions or probabilities at this stage.
Now, to comment on the tourney itself.....I'm sure that the BIG as a conference has decided to play on campus because revenue there will be similar to renting a venue, and no need to pay to do so. I'm also sure that the single game on campus semi (rather than Best of 3) is for the sake of preserving availability. I don't think the conference itself is thinking about player safety or getting more teams into the NCAAs. It's probably more financial and logistical than anything.
So, if there were an 8th team, what would happen? Well, first, the conference sched would go to 28 games. I like 24 better myself. Second, I'm not sure the playoffs wold change at all except that the Reg Season champ wouldn't get a bye.
Just a few thoughts....
I'll try to simplify SteveO's comments with my own....(ha ha making that work welll....)
CHN probably takes the KRACH ratings and does a few thousand random runs of the test of the season with KRACH ratings as odds for 'who wins each game'. But, that method has flaws: For one, based on last week, does OSU have UW's number? Are those games really a random draw? Probably not.
Further, to what extent can you actually make predictions in college hockey? Not a large extent. There are only a few games left, really, and hockey has a great deal of randomness to it anyway. Further, statisticians will tell you that with the number of games left to be played here, it's more likely that something strange happens than that nothing strange happens.
So, don't pay much attention to predictions or probabilities at this stage.
Now, to comment on the tourney itself.....I'm sure that the BIG as a conference has decided to play on campus because revenue there will be similar to renting a venue, and no need to pay to do so. I'm also sure that the single game on campus semi (rather than Best of 3) is for the sake of preserving availability. I don't think the conference itself is thinking about player safety or getting more teams into the NCAAs. It's probably more financial and logistical than anything.
So, if there were an 8th team, what would happen? Well, first, the conference sched would go to 28 games. I like 24 better myself. Second, I'm not sure the playoffs wold change at all except that the Reg Season champ wouldn't get a bye.
Just a few thoughts....
ScoobyFanClub
Registered User
Re: 2020 B1G Tournament
Most certainly that method - or ANY method - has flaws like you described. Because of how hockey is, and because of not knowing how to handle recent results. But I don't think those were the "flaws" that SteveO was addressing - which were more mathematical in nature. But yeah, if you want to say there are flaws with trying to predict the future of hockey - and so therefore you should ignore the CHN thing - then by all means, ignore it. Not sure the math of it is far off, however.
I'll try to simplify SteveO's comments with my own....(ha ha making that work welll....)
CHN probably takes the KRACH ratings and does a few thousand random runs of the test of the season with KRACH ratings as odds for 'who wins each game'. But, that method has flaws: For one, based on last week, does OSU have UW's number? Are those games really a random draw? Probably not.
Further, to what extent can you actually make predictions in college hockey? Not a large extent. There are only a few games left, really, and hockey has a great deal of randomness to it anyway. Further, statisticians will tell you that with the number of games left to be played here, it's more likely that something strange happens than that nothing strange happens.
So, don't pay much attention to predictions or probabilities at this stage.
Most certainly that method - or ANY method - has flaws like you described. Because of how hockey is, and because of not knowing how to handle recent results. But I don't think those were the "flaws" that SteveO was addressing - which were more mathematical in nature. But yeah, if you want to say there are flaws with trying to predict the future of hockey - and so therefore you should ignore the CHN thing - then by all means, ignore it. Not sure the math of it is far off, however.