klbaum1077
Registered User
What if brown wins ecac and bg loses
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2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
- Thread starter ticapnews
- Start date
What if brown wins ecac and bg loses
The Exiled One
New member
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
Minnesota State #1 overall (meaning they'd be placed in Fargo)
EDIT: Can someone explain to me how Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison with SCSU?
Minnesota State #1 overall (meaning they'd be placed in Fargo)
EDIT: Can someone explain to me how Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison with SCSU?
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ThePowerConference
Registered User
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
Northeastern beat St Cloud during the regular season so they would win the head to head comparison, right?
I can't find a scenario that puts Mankato ahead of St Cloud as the top overall seed.
Northeastern beat St Cloud during the regular season so they would win the head to head comparison, right?
I can't find a scenario that puts Mankato ahead of St Cloud as the top overall seed.
The Exiled One
New member
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
Click on the link in my post. I think the USCHO predictor is broken. I don't think Northeastern can win the common opponent comparison.
If you keep track of the records of the teams, the tie seems to propagate strangely, e.g. SCSU's record increases by multiple ties in some scenarios in which I give them a tie. Of course, it's possible that's a display bug, not a calculation bug, but I can't consistently duplicate those scenario results from USCHO, either.
I can consistently duplicate CHN's results by being willing to switch back and forth between counting the on campus championship games as home or neutral, but which I have to choose depends on the other set of games, and there's no obvious pattern. Makes me wonder about some sort of cache, but I can't figure it out.
I suppose either could be an issue of previous runs not completely resetting, but I worked pretty hard to start clean on my tests on CHN.
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Ralph Baer
Let's Go 'Tute!
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
Reading these thread makes one hope that whatever software the committee uses to pick the teams is bug free.
Reading these thread makes one hope that whatever software the committee uses to pick the teams is bug free.
Was thinking the same thing
TheRevengeance
2016 Hockey East Overlords
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
NU shouldn't be able to pass St. Cloud as far as I know. The current common opponents are Union (both teams have a .000) and BC (SCSU had a 1.000, NU currently has a .667). SCSU did not play anybody else on NU's schedule.
NU shouldn't be able to pass St. Cloud as far as I know. The current common opponents are Union (both teams have a .000) and BC (SCSU had a 1.000, NU currently has a .667). SCSU did not play anybody else on NU's schedule.
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
I've been poking at it for about a day, and still don't feel that all the issues are worked out. The calculators all give different results in important edge cases.
I'm not yet worried about the committee's calculations. Calculating PWR from a list of games is relatively easy, and I haven't seen a different result out of our three implementations (CHN, USCHO, and my own) since the last change in formula. So far, these errors are consistent with problems with the user interfaces that the sites use to allow users to specify some of the results in the lists of games. But, until we figure it out, that's just my best guess.
I've been poking at it for about a day, and still don't feel that all the issues are worked out. The calculators all give different results in important edge cases.
I'm not yet worried about the committee's calculations. Calculating PWR from a list of games is relatively easy, and I haven't seen a different result out of our three implementations (CHN, USCHO, and my own) since the last change in formula. So far, these errors are consistent with problems with the user interfaces that the sites use to allow users to specify some of the results in the lists of games. But, until we figure it out, that's just my best guess.
The Exiled One
New member
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
<img src=https://i.imgur.com/qrhHbEW.png></img>
For the Sum of Win% column, I believe it should read 1.000 for both teams. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.
I'm not sure the USCHO is even trying to fix their predictor tool, which appears to be miscalculating the common opponents variable.
<img src=https://i.imgur.com/qrhHbEW.png></img>
For the Sum of Win% column, I believe it should read 1.000 for both teams. Somebody correct me if I'm wrong.
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
After working with the CHN guys a bit on it, their calculator is now producing the same results as my forecasts. It was the home/neutral issue, and they're now treating Big Ten and WCHA championships as home games for the hosts. Now that I trust the results again, I'll see if I can whip up some interesting analysis in the remaining 2 days.
Here's the most unlikely one:
Union gets in!
Obviously you need all but Atlantic Hockey to be won by teams that otherwise finish in the top 15. Then you have to get Union up to 15, which is a delicate balancing act (e.g. the scenario above pushes Union's RPI .0002 above Notre Dame's); so many scenarios that meet the previous criterion, like Mass defeating Northeastern, wouldn't work. Of about 49,000 possible remaining outcomes, Union makes it in 20.
(Of course, due to all the issues discussed in this thread, that scenario won't produce the same result in USCHO's calculator).
After working with the CHN guys a bit on it, their calculator is now producing the same results as my forecasts. It was the home/neutral issue, and they're now treating Big Ten and WCHA championships as home games for the hosts. Now that I trust the results again, I'll see if I can whip up some interesting analysis in the remaining 2 days.
Here's the most unlikely one:
Union gets in!
Obviously you need all but Atlantic Hockey to be won by teams that otherwise finish in the top 15. Then you have to get Union up to 15, which is a delicate balancing act (e.g. the scenario above pushes Union's RPI .0002 above Notre Dame's); so many scenarios that meet the previous criterion, like Mass defeating Northeastern, wouldn't work. Of about 49,000 possible remaining outcomes, Union makes it in 20.
(Of course, due to all the issues discussed in this thread, that scenario won't produce the same result in USCHO's calculator).
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ThePowerConference
Registered User
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
Everything else I keep reading from other sources says that St Cloud is the guaranteed top overall seed based on any and all outcomes this weekend. But for some reason the Exiled One can still find a route that shows Mankato passing them. Maybe that "bug" has now been fixed with the home/neutral sites for the Big Ten and WCHA, per Jim Dahl.
Everything else I keep reading from other sources says that St Cloud is the guaranteed top overall seed based on any and all outcomes this weekend. But for some reason the Exiled One can still find a route that shows Mankato passing them. Maybe that "bug" has now been fixed with the home/neutral sites for the Big Ten and WCHA, per Jim Dahl.
QUAlum2004
Well-known member
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
Season not officially over for Union. CHN found one scenario (actually 4) that gets Union into the tournament. Its unlikely but anything is possible. It doesn't matter what the Atlantic Hockey teams do by the way because if any of the 4 win then Union would still be in.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/r...=16&yatc[9][f]=52&yatc[10][f]=60#.XJKb9ChKiUm
Season not officially over for Union. CHN found one scenario (actually 4) that gets Union into the tournament. Its unlikely but anything is possible. It doesn't matter what the Atlantic Hockey teams do by the way because if any of the 4 win then Union would still be in.
https://www.collegehockeynews.com/r...=16&yatc[9][f]=52&yatc[10][f]=60#.XJKb9ChKiUm
The Exiled One
New member
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
No, the home/neutral debate affects RPI. The bug on the predictor tool is with Common Opponents. It's still broken.
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
And, amazingly, this outcome depends on CC winning the NCHC conso game. That gets them just barely above Notre Dame in the RPI. And, they come out ahead of Providence because of 2 interesting results:
1- Notre Dame still wins the compare with Providence
2- Union wins the compare with St Cloud.
And, amazingly, this outcome depends on CC winning the NCHC conso game. That gets them just barely above Notre Dame in the RPI. And, they come out ahead of Providence because of 2 interesting results:
1- Notre Dame still wins the compare with Providence
2- Union wins the compare with St Cloud.
Actually 20 (of the 49,152).
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
I think that you are looking at the overall Common Opponent record whereas the calculators count the records against each opponent separately and then calculate again. For example 0-2 and 0-1 against an opponent are the same .0000 and 1-0 would be 1.000 while 3-1 would be .7500. Averaging the results brings one to .5000 and the other to .3750 even though total common opponent would be .5000 for each.
I think that you are looking at the overall Common Opponent record whereas the calculators count the records against each opponent separately and then calculate again. For example 0-2 and 0-1 against an opponent are the same .0000 and 1-0 would be 1.000 while 3-1 would be .7500. Averaging the results brings one to .5000 and the other to .3750 even though total common opponent would be .5000 for each.
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
It's not the average of the results but the sum of the winning percentages against each.
It's not the average of the results but the sum of the winning percentages against each.
Re: 2019 USCHO Pairwise Predictor
I didn't know quite know how to express that but meant to explain that you separate the records against each opponent and not just combine the total common opponent record. Thanks for clarifying it.