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2019 Elections

Kepler

Kepler

Si certus es dubita
Quick one-off thread for tonight. Here's a 538 preview.

I opened my VA precinct this morning (Hunter Mill, stop by). Weather is gorgeous, a good 80% or so of traffic stopping at the Dem table rather than the GOP (we have been running 70/30 in recent elections). I was happy to see the GOP precinct captain was wearing his own Bail Bonds company shirt and looked and talked like a seedier version of Louie De Palma. That's gonna play great in a Unitarian GS-15 well-scrubbed district where the only worry is the kids may not get into Harvard and will have to settle for Hopkins.

It's a potentially huge day in VA as we have the chance to put the nail in the coffin of the 2-vote GOP-majorities in the State Senate and House of Delegates. Today we can turn VA solid blue, perhaps for a long, long time to come.

Here's a live site for tracking results.
 
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Re: 2019 Elections

Kepler said:
Quick one-off thread for tonight. Here's a 538 preview.

I opened my VA precinct this morning (Hunter Mill, stop by). Weather is gorgeous, a good 80% or so of traffic stopping at the Dem table rather than the GOP (we have been running 70/30). I was happy to see the GOP precinct captain was wearing his own Bail Bonds company shirt and looked and talked like a seedier version of Louie De Palma. That's gonna play great in a Unitarian GS-15 well-scrubbed district where the only worry is the kids may not get into Harvard and will have to settle for Hopkins.

It's a potentially huge day in VA as we have the chance to put the nail in the coffin of the 1-vote GOP-majorities in the State Senate and House of Delegates. Today we can turn VA solid blue, perhaps for a long, long time to come.
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Sorry Kep, but I have it on good authority (Scooby) that Goopers win VA legislature in a rout! ;)
 
Re: 2019 Elections

538 ranks pollsters by methodology and accuracy. Sort by grade, then scroll to the bottom and click "Show more pollsters."

The A+ pollsters:

Marist
Monmouth
ABC/WaPo
Siena/NYT
Selzer
Muhlenberg

The prominent terrible polls:

Rasmussen
Zogby
SurveyMonkey

The most badly biased polls:

5.1 D SurveyMonkey
3.4 D Jayhawk
3.2 D Nielsen
2.9 D UNH

4.5 R TCJ
2.5 R ccAdvertising
 
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Re: 2019 Elections

Biggies in CO are:

- repeal of the TABOR refund clause (Taxpayer Bill of Rights, requires the state to create an estimate of how much revenue any new tax will bring in, any overage must be returned to the taxpayers via refund check or have a referendum to allow it to be spent, this measure would repeal that clause)
- legalization of sports gambling to fund the state water plan

Other than that, just school board in Denver, plus a few proposals to split transportation and venue management off from Public Works.
 
Re: 2019 Elections

Twitch Boy said:
Biggies in CO are:

- repeal of the TABOR refund clause (Taxpayer Bill of Rights, requires the state to create an estimate of how much revenue any new tax will bring in, any overage must be returned to the taxpayers via refund check or have a referendum to allow it to be spent, this measure would repeal that clause)
- legalization of sports gambling to fund the state water plan

Other than that, just school board in Denver, plus a few proposals to split transportation and venue management off from Public Works.
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I recall a CO election, maybe 2008, where the GOP managed to survive an otherwise national blue wave by obsessing on NRA talking points. Is that still a winning strategy there?
 
Re: 2019 Elections

Deutsche Gopher Fan said:
Same here, mine turned into nearly as much of a circus as a us house race though.
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Yeah, you guys are big time over there. Me? Meh. There have been two times there was something major going on over here with the schools and I ended up on the losing side both times. Was very disappointed.
 
Re: 2019 Elections

I just moved to a new city this weekend. Took a look at a sample ballot on the MN Sec. of State's site, and there's only a school board election on it. Only one candidate has a campaign site, the rest do not. We're the blind leading the blind here.
 
Re: 2019 Elections

ScoobyDoo said:
All I have where I live is school board elections.
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Those are huge. Do the research and get out to vote. Bring a friend. In elections that are only way low down ticket sometimes turnout is less than 10%. You can have a HUGE impact if you just get say a half dozen people to come down. With a dozen you might even swing the election. I'm not kidding. Those are the results you see election night that get decided in single digits.
 
Re: 2019 Elections

St. Clown said:
I just moved to a new city this weekend. Took a look at a sample ballot on the MN Sec. of State's site, and there's only a school board election on it. Only one candidate has a campaign site, the rest do not. We're the blind leading the blind here.
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Call the district Dem party HQ, they'll tell you who is who, who they endorse, and they will answer specific questions. They like doing it.
 
Re: 2019 Elections

Kepler said:
Call the district Dem party HQ, they'll tell you who is who, who they endorse, and they will answer specific questions. They like doing it.
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The school board is officially a non-partisan election here. Can they do that?
 
Re: 2019 Elections

The Sicatoka said:
Isn't SurveyMonkey not a true poll (and shouldn't even be considered as such) as it's self-selected respondents and not scientifically sampled/adjusted?
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It's an online tool that different entities partner with and which occasionally announces its own surveys to advertise itself. I've seen it reported non-critically in many places, particularly on liberal sites when it gives them ammunition for a narrative. Terrible methodology.

It's similar to Rasmussen in that they realize they are loaded on house effect and they don't correct for it because their discriminator is they are useful to one side.
 
Re: 2019 Elections

St. Clown said:
The school board is officially a non-partisan election here. Can they do that?
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Sure, VA does it too. Non-partisan only means the state (the ballot) can't list the party, but the parties can always endorse. 1A FTW!
 
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