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2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
- Thread starter joecct
- Start date
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
Well, the Euro model has Dorian doing a hard right turn just off the FLA coast and running right up the Eastern seaboard until it heads out around the NC Capes. Still a slow mover, though.
Well, the Euro model has Dorian doing a hard right turn just off the FLA coast and running right up the Eastern seaboard until it heads out around the NC Capes. Still a slow mover, though.
FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
That's actually been the trend in the models since yesterday afternoon. The vast majority have a hard turn to the north, the question is, does it make the turn with the center onshore or offshore? It makes a big difference.
That's actually been the trend in the models since yesterday afternoon. The vast majority have a hard turn to the north, the question is, does it make the turn with the center onshore or offshore? It makes a big difference.
yea. The Euro forecasts a High dropping down over Northern Florida and blocking the westward movement and forcing Dorian up the coast. How far off the coast remains to be seen.
5pm
<img src="https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL052019_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/205152_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png" /src>
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ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
Actually, it's how quickly the Bermuda High erodes as a trough of low pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley. Those are the two factors that will turn the storm northward.
Actually, it's how quickly the Bermuda High erodes as a trough of low pressure moves across the Tennessee Valley. Those are the two factors that will turn the storm northward.
Back in the mid 50s, the Bermuda High steered a number of Hurricanes up the east coast. One of them, Hazel, disrupted my parents' wedding plans.
MadTownSioux
Fighting Sioux Hockey Fan
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
Anybody know where Vero Beach is in relation fo landfall? That's where my BIL lives. Getting worried about his family.
Anybody know where Vero Beach is in relation fo landfall? That's where my BIL lives. Getting worried about his family.
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ticapnews
Never graduate.
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
https://www.google.com/maps/@27.4824089,-80.0990914,9.33z/data=!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s/g/11hz_3v1pw
That's not good...
https://www.google.com/maps/@27.4824089,-80.0990914,9.33z/data=!4m3!15m2!1m1!1s/g/11hz_3v1pw
That's not good...
MadTownSioux
Fighting Sioux Hockey Fan
wow, OK. Thanks.
ScottK
Riverhawk Radio Meteorologist and Statistician
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
That's assuming the Hurricane Center's forecast is right. The average forecast error at that point is nearly 200 miles. The majority of the forecast models now keep the center offshore. While a hurricane passing 20 miles offshore is very bad, it is actually quite a bit better than if the storm makes landfall.
That's assuming the Hurricane Center's forecast is right. The average forecast error at that point is nearly 200 miles. The majority of the forecast models now keep the center offshore. While a hurricane passing 20 miles offshore is very bad, it is actually quite a bit better than if the storm makes landfall.
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
Very much so. That’s what Matthew did in 2016 - it was supposed to make landfall and grind up the coast. At the last minute, it veered 30 miles east, so instead of taking the 130 mph eyewall up the ***, we “only” got the 85 mph inner bands. Thanks for the reacharound, Matty!
(Yes, a little punchy after a redeye last night and then 14 straight hours of prep and packing. We hit the road in the morning - headed up to Tennessee to stay with a relative.)
Very much so. That’s what Matthew did in 2016 - it was supposed to make landfall and grind up the coast. At the last minute, it veered 30 miles east, so instead of taking the 130 mph eyewall up the ***, we “only” got the 85 mph inner bands. Thanks for the reacharound, Matty!
(Yes, a little punchy after a redeye last night and then 14 straight hours of prep and packing. We hit the road in the morning - headed up to Tennessee to stay with a relative.)
walrus
Wind up workin' in a gas station
Re: 2019 Atlantic Hurricane season - what's in a name?
Yeah, thats right,its still in that cone. I've watched and heard so much on the storm and there projected track you think thats really the where its going. Yesterday a weatherman who does local radio but also does work for the shipping industry, https://www.fleetweathergroup.com/ said he gave it 50 50 shot of reforming into a hurricane in the gulf after it crossed Florida, 12 hours later its going to hit Charleston instead.
Yeah, thats right,its still in that cone. I've watched and heard so much on the storm and there projected track you think thats really the where its going. Yesterday a weatherman who does local radio but also does work for the shipping industry, https://www.fleetweathergroup.com/ said he gave it 50 50 shot of reforming into a hurricane in the gulf after it crossed Florida, 12 hours later its going to hit Charleston instead.