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2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
- Thread starter Handyman
- Start date
WeAreNDHockey
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Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Gerrymandering is bad. When either party does it. There are examples of democrats taking advantage of it but republicans have raised it to an art form. Without gerrymandering, the U.S. House would probably have remained in the hands of the Democratic party in recent years and this year's election would have been a disaster for republicans instead of just a sound defeat.
North Carolina is a perfect example. Despite a clear majority of congressional votes going to democrats this year, republicans will hold 10 of North Carolina's 13 House seats. Similar vote totals in 2016 (democrats took just under half the vote) yielded the same democratic-republican breakdown. Ohio suffers from the same gerrymandered mis-representation. In 2016 approximately 42% of votes for the U.S. House went to democrats yet just 4 of the 16 Ohio seats were won by democrats. This year it was even worse. Democrats won 48% of all house votes but Ohio will still send the same 4 democrats from the same 4 districts to Washington.
Ohio will be a reliably red state for the next generation at least as far as the presidential races and most statewide elections. But fairly drawn districts in both state and federal House races would yield a much more equitable and accurate representation of the people's voting choices. While I feel like all of the electoral work I have done since the summer was wasted (a red sweep of state races and the only state-wide ballot measure failed, despite my wishes) I at least am happy that Ohio did pass a measure to combat the horrible gerrymandering in this state last May that my organization worked to craft and get on the ballot. Fairly drawn districts would likely send at least 6 and probably 7 (if not even 8 because it is impossible to draw districts perfectly) Representatives to Washington and would prevent a veto-proof majority in the State House and Senate. If Ohio democrats ever manage to field a governor's candidate with an actual pulse and some fire that will matter.
Gerrymandering is bad. When either party does it. There are examples of democrats taking advantage of it but republicans have raised it to an art form. Without gerrymandering, the U.S. House would probably have remained in the hands of the Democratic party in recent years and this year's election would have been a disaster for republicans instead of just a sound defeat.
North Carolina is a perfect example. Despite a clear majority of congressional votes going to democrats this year, republicans will hold 10 of North Carolina's 13 House seats. Similar vote totals in 2016 (democrats took just under half the vote) yielded the same democratic-republican breakdown. Ohio suffers from the same gerrymandered mis-representation. In 2016 approximately 42% of votes for the U.S. House went to democrats yet just 4 of the 16 Ohio seats were won by democrats. This year it was even worse. Democrats won 48% of all house votes but Ohio will still send the same 4 democrats from the same 4 districts to Washington.
Ohio will be a reliably red state for the next generation at least as far as the presidential races and most statewide elections. But fairly drawn districts in both state and federal House races would yield a much more equitable and accurate representation of the people's voting choices. While I feel like all of the electoral work I have done since the summer was wasted (a red sweep of state races and the only state-wide ballot measure failed, despite my wishes) I at least am happy that Ohio did pass a measure to combat the horrible gerrymandering in this state last May that my organization worked to craft and get on the ballot. Fairly drawn districts would likely send at least 6 and probably 7 (if not even 8 because it is impossible to draw districts perfectly) Representatives to Washington and would prevent a veto-proof majority in the State House and Senate. If Ohio democrats ever manage to field a governor's candidate with an actual pulse and some fire that will matter.
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
So some good news on that front since Dems have finally smartened up and stopped waiting for the SCOTUS to ban gerrymandering. For example:
AZ: Citizens referendum put map drawing in hands of independent commission. Goopers sued but lost mildly surprising decision with SCOTUS. AZ delegation is now 5/4 Dems in an evenly divided state in 2018.
FL: Again citizens put anti incumbent protection law on the books. Goopers sued and lost. Now delegation is 15/14 GOP in evenly divided state.
PA: Dems sued to state supreme court and won to redraw lines. SCOTUS declined to intervene. Result, a 9/9 delegation.
In 2018, redistricting law passed in MI. Delegation now 7/7 I believe and on borrowed time. Dems will also control redistricting for PA due to Gov and Court majority. One seat away in House and Senate from controlling VA. In North Carolina, Dems winning state supreme court means maps are also in trouble as similar lawsuit as PA should take care of that.
Having said all that the lines in WI, GA, TX and OH are no doubt costing us seats (as are IL and MD ones benefitting Dems). Not sure if any remedy is in the works for GA and TX. Time will tell if OH Republicans truly voted to take away their own redistricting advantage. In WI I suspect it will take winning control of the state supreme court in 2020.
So some good news on that front since Dems have finally smartened up and stopped waiting for the SCOTUS to ban gerrymandering. For example:
AZ: Citizens referendum put map drawing in hands of independent commission. Goopers sued but lost mildly surprising decision with SCOTUS. AZ delegation is now 5/4 Dems in an evenly divided state in 2018.
FL: Again citizens put anti incumbent protection law on the books. Goopers sued and lost. Now delegation is 15/14 GOP in evenly divided state.
PA: Dems sued to state supreme court and won to redraw lines. SCOTUS declined to intervene. Result, a 9/9 delegation.
In 2018, redistricting law passed in MI. Delegation now 7/7 I believe and on borrowed time. Dems will also control redistricting for PA due to Gov and Court majority. One seat away in House and Senate from controlling VA. In North Carolina, Dems winning state supreme court means maps are also in trouble as similar lawsuit as PA should take care of that.
Having said all that the lines in WI, GA, TX and OH are no doubt costing us seats (as are IL and MD ones benefitting Dems). Not sure if any remedy is in the works for GA and TX. Time will tell if OH Republicans truly voted to take away their own redistricting advantage. In WI I suspect it will take winning control of the state supreme court in 2020.
WeAreNDHockey
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Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
The districts will have to be drawn in a way that get the approval of 60% of the state house and senate, including at least half of the minority party. If they can't do that, the task shifts to a 7 person commission -- 2 R lawmakers, 2 D lawmakers and the governor, sec of state and state auditor and they will have to get at least one vote from the minority party. If that fails, it reverts back to the legislators but they will have to follow strict rules about how they draw the districts and they will last just 4 years instead of full ten years until a new census. There is still room for shenanigans, but both parties supported these changes and I have hope it will actually result in districts drawn fairly.
The districts will have to be drawn in a way that get the approval of 60% of the state house and senate, including at least half of the minority party. If they can't do that, the task shifts to a 7 person commission -- 2 R lawmakers, 2 D lawmakers and the governor, sec of state and state auditor and they will have to get at least one vote from the minority party. If that fails, it reverts back to the legislators but they will have to follow strict rules about how they draw the districts and they will last just 4 years instead of full ten years until a new census. There is still room for shenanigans, but both parties supported these changes and I have hope it will actually result in districts drawn fairly.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema continued to expand her lead over GOP Rep. Martha McSally on Sunday as new votes were counted in Arizona’s still-uncalled Senate race <a href="https://t.co/QMvKdpKNWU">https://t.co/QMvKdpKNWU</a> <a href="https://t.co/fXTTNHZbOf">pic.twitter.com/fXTTNHZbOf</a></p>— POLITICO (@politico) <a href="https://twitter.com/politico/status/1062011519322464256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema continued to expand her lead over GOP Rep. Martha McSally on Sunday as new votes were counted in Arizona’s still-uncalled Senate race <a href="https://t.co/QMvKdpKNWU">https://t.co/QMvKdpKNWU</a> <a href="https://t.co/fXTTNHZbOf">pic.twitter.com/fXTTNHZbOf</a></p>— POLITICO (@politico) <a href="https://twitter.com/politico/status/1062011519322464256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
WeAreNDHockey
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Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Are there countless democrats calling for McSally to just go ahead and concede or is everyone just waiting patiently for the ballot count to wrap up? Contrast that with Florida and Georgia, where plenty of republicans are screaming for democratic party challengers to go ahead and concede.
If memory serves, when trump took office he had a 52-48 majority in the Senate (46 Ds and 2 Is who caucused with the Ds). When this plays out he will (most likely) have a 53-47 majority. This despite an extremely difficult map for democrats to protect in 2018. A one seat pick-up is defined as "winning?"
When all is said, done, and counted democrats will have likely picked up at least 35 and perhaps as many as 40 seats in the House. A 1% improvement is seen as "winning?" What the hell is a 9% improvement? My joy on election day was tempered because of an across-the-board whupping of candidates I campaigned for in Ohio. But in a lot of places in the other 49 states this was a solid day for the good guys.
Now the democrats in the House need to use the purse strings to thwart trump whenever they can, conduct real oversight into his transgressions via hearings and subpoena, and put forth legislation on taxes, jobs and healthcare (regardless of their chances of passage) that help the working and middle classes. I've been saying for two years now we had two elections to save the country. We made a decent start with 2018. A similar score in 2020 (with a much more favorable senate map) would go a long way to at least postponing the apocalypse.
Are there countless democrats calling for McSally to just go ahead and concede or is everyone just waiting patiently for the ballot count to wrap up? Contrast that with Florida and Georgia, where plenty of republicans are screaming for democratic party challengers to go ahead and concede.
If memory serves, when trump took office he had a 52-48 majority in the Senate (46 Ds and 2 Is who caucused with the Ds). When this plays out he will (most likely) have a 53-47 majority. This despite an extremely difficult map for democrats to protect in 2018. A one seat pick-up is defined as "winning?"
When all is said, done, and counted democrats will have likely picked up at least 35 and perhaps as many as 40 seats in the House. A 1% improvement is seen as "winning?" What the hell is a 9% improvement? My joy on election day was tempered because of an across-the-board whupping of candidates I campaigned for in Ohio. But in a lot of places in the other 49 states this was a solid day for the good guys.
Now the democrats in the House need to use the purse strings to thwart trump whenever they can, conduct real oversight into his transgressions via hearings and subpoena, and put forth legislation on taxes, jobs and healthcare (regardless of their chances of passage) that help the working and middle classes. I've been saying for two years now we had two elections to save the country. We made a decent start with 2018. A similar score in 2020 (with a much more favorable senate map) would go a long way to at least postponing the apocalypse.
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Another way to look at it is the Dems will have gone 23/33 in Senate races. That's a pretty **** good result; the only problem was they went 24/33 the last time around, so it gets missed by comparison.
Another way to look at it is the Dems will have gone 23/33 in Senate races. That's a pretty **** good result; the only problem was they went 24/33 the last time around, so it gets missed by comparison.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
While I think Nelson will lose cant count him out yet and the Mississippi special election could get interesting if the Republican keeps making ridiculous statements like the one I posted this morning. I wouldnt put any money on it mind you but the "big victory" isnt in the bag just yet for His Golden Showerness.
While I think Nelson will lose cant count him out yet and the Mississippi special election could get interesting if the Republican keeps making ridiculous statements like the one I posted this morning. I wouldnt put any money on it mind you but the "big victory" isnt in the bag just yet for His Golden Showerness.
French Rage
NICKERSON HAS [CENSORED]
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Rick Scott has no evidence of corruption in the recount: https://twitter.com/alexkotch/status/1062040176053182464
Rick Scott has no evidence of corruption in the recount: https://twitter.com/alexkotch/status/1062040176053182464
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
Of course not. Entire idea is to get the idiot GOP voters to repeat that there is fraud and rile up the base.
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
But her emails!!
Florida county and email...republican county, don’t hear republicans yelling about this
https://www.newsandguts.com/florida-county-allowed-voters-email-ballots/
But her emails!!
Florida county and email...republican county, don’t hear republicans yelling about this
https://www.newsandguts.com/florida-county-allowed-voters-email-ballots/
Last edited by a moderator:
D
Deutsche Gopher Fan
Guest
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Sinema declared winner of AZ
Sinema declared winner of AZ
rufus
rock and roller
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Wasnt sure if this was posted:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Judge denies Scott's request for injunction against Broward County <a href="https://t.co/XVcEqKSO4b">https://t.co/XVcEqKSO4b</a> <a href="https://t.co/7tDGNiMjSz">pic.twitter.com/7tDGNiMjSz</a></p>— The Hill (@thehill) <a href="https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1062174737718276096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Wasnt sure if this was posted:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-cards="hidden" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Judge denies Scott's request for injunction against Broward County <a href="https://t.co/XVcEqKSO4b">https://t.co/XVcEqKSO4b</a> <a href="https://t.co/7tDGNiMjSz">pic.twitter.com/7tDGNiMjSz</a></p>— The Hill (@thehill) <a href="https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1062174737718276096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
Interesting thread on the AZ race:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">180K Arizonans who voted for Gov. Ducey voted for Kyrsten Sinema. She won independents by 10 and no doubt received quite a few Republican votes. It’s quite obvious why. McSally, who deserves credit for a gracious concession, made a strategic decision to go all in with Trump. 1/</p>— Mark Salter (@MarkSalter55) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkSalter55/status/1062170546455150592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Interesting thread on the AZ race:
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">180K Arizonans who voted for Gov. Ducey voted for Kyrsten Sinema. She won independents by 10 and no doubt received quite a few Republican votes. It’s quite obvious why. McSally, who deserves credit for a gracious concession, made a strategic decision to go all in with Trump. 1/</p>— Mark Salter (@MarkSalter55) <a href="https://twitter.com/MarkSalter55/status/1062170546455150592?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 13, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
bronconick
Yep, still here
Re: 2018 Midterms 2: I Need A Drink!
So Trump and his lackeys gleefully hounded Flake into retirement and followed it up by losing his seat.
So Trump and his lackeys gleefully hounded Flake into retirement and followed it up by losing his seat.