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2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Florence is now a Cat 4 and looks like it is headed for Bermuda.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Not to alarm anyone in the DMV, but next Thursday Evening could be interesting...

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-lang="en"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">GFS (left) and EURO (right) show a similar track for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Hurricane?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Hurricane</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Florence?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Florence</a><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HurricaneFlorence?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#HurricaneFlorence</a> <a href="https://t.co/PB2zk5TET4">pic.twitter.com/PB2zk5TET4</a></p>— NortheastWeatherWx (@NEWeatherWx) <a href="https://twitter.com/NEWeatherWx/status/1037505617240510466?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 6, 2018</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
 
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Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

And Mike's Spaghetti Models has the Euro for the next 10 days. Just hit the play button.

The European model has done a horrendous job with this system so far. It can't even initialize the storm properly, so I don't trust anything it does with the system beyond that. None of the other models have done well either. Two days ago were nearly unanimous that when it barely became a hurricane, it would weaken a bit, then maybe, MAYBE, get back to hurricane strength later this week. Instead, it became a Category 4. If these models can't even get the first 48 hours right (or in the case of the European, an analysis), why would you ever think that a forecast for 7-10 days out would be remotely correct? Especially when the average error on these models for any storm (not just this one) is over 300 miles at Day 5 alone.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Florence is picking up and barreling toward the East coast.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

The Jim Reaper is on site in Wilmington, NC. Evacuation orders going out.

Stay safe, and remember, it ain't THAT the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing. If you get hit by a Volvo...
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Sounds like I'll be home Thursday and Friday while the hurricane dumps a foot of rain on us.

Im more inland NC. So not likely to get as much of the wind.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

They're predicting Florence will continue to strengthen over the next 24-48 hours. It jumped back up to a major hurricane this morning.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

The headline is going to be how powerful it is when it comes ashore, but it's also predicted to slow down considerably once it moves inland. The potential is there for some pretty devastating flooding.
 
Re: 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - the Cat is out of the bag!

Only send planes west. So far west they end up in Guam. See if the island will sink or capsize.

Guam got hit by a typhoon this morning.
 
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