2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

[beaverhockeyfan]

As for the possibility of 4 additional NC games, it's difficult getting a split of NC games right now. Michigan Tech had no NC games in their rink this year and many others only have 2 or 3. Good luck.

I was just thinking BSU was able to pull it off in the old CHA days, but the more I thought about it, they were mostly with teams that are now with them in the WCHA.

It would be intersting from a BSU perspective if this did come to being if they could get UMD, UND, SCSU and Minny on the schedule.

 

[gfmorris]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I was just thinking BSU was able to pull it off in the old CHA days, but the more I thought about it, they were mostly with teams that are now with them in the WCHA.

Yeah, I was thinking about that today, too. [That and Bill Wilkinson.]

GFM

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I've read that we're going to a 24-team schedule soon...
GFM

Holy cow! Did the entire ECAC apply for membership in the WCHA?
This is out of left field as I only heard ASU was looking for a new conference.

Ryan J

 

[oldish husky]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I've read that we're going to a 24-team schedule soon, maybe as early as next year. (I'll have to look up the press release and follow-on media stuff about that for timing.). I wonder if the plan here is to start the playoffs a week earlier and either do three straight, three-game series or provide a week off between the semis and final game to let people set up accommodations. But let's be honest:

1. If UAH, UAF, or UAA are the host school, it's not really going to matter if there's a one-week turn. The travel is going to suck. It sucks less to Alabama, but it still sucks.

2. For BG/MTU/LSSU/FSU/NMU, the chances are that the travel isn't going to be that bad (since it's 50-50 that their opponent will be a short drive away), and none of those barns are huge, anyway. Also, none of them are in big metro areas (don't talk to me about being close to Toledo, Falcon fanatics). The fact of the matter is that the locals will fill the place.

3. For the Minnesota schools, we actually have a good-problem-to-have. Both of those buildings are pretty solid facilities, and while the locals will help fill them up, they probably won't fill it completely. I'm thinking Mankato more than Bemidji, but it applies to both schools.

I think that this is the best approach. It beats rotating the tournament like College Hockey America sorta did (RMU never hosted).

GFM

The advantage of the 24 game schedule is that it provides room for WCHA teams to schedule non conference games against WCHA opponents too!

 

[gfmorris]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

Holy cow! Did the entire ECAC apply for membership in the WCHA?
This is out of left field as I only heard ASU was looking for a new conference.

Ryan J

Wouldn't that be a hoot!!!

The advantage of the 24 game schedule is that it provides room for WCHA teams to schedule non conference games against WCHA opponents too!

We don't all have in-state rivals down the road.

GFM

 

[Squarebanks]

I think its pretty obvious that winning is the most important, the rule seems to be play the most difficult games you know you can win...as far as helping your autobid chances...preparing you for the tournament is a different issue.

This. You have to win your non-conference games to get a shot at an at-large bid, and our results this year as a conference were atrocious. And playing conference teams in non-conference matchups does nothing to help the at-large issue. I won't be surprised if we are a one-bid league again next year.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

This. You have to win your non-conference games to get a shot at an at-large bid, and our results this year as a conference were atrocious. And playing conference teams in non-conference matchups does nothing to help the at-large issue. I won't be surprised if we are a one-bid league again next year.

I get that we need to win. I'm not that mathematically inept. What I was wondering -and obviously didn't state it very well originally- is should we scale back on the NCHC and Big games (24 and 25, respectively) in favor of more AH (6 this year) or ASU (0) games, given how well this worked for OSU and PSU in this year's Pairwise? Even if the AH or ASU games are road games, most of our NCHC games have been road games, and I'd think we'd do better than the 3-18-3 mark we posted against the NCHC this year. Here's where I can't figure out all the math on all this, but it would seem like even going .400 against the bottom 1/3 of the Pairwise is better than going .1875 against the top third.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I do think we are better off playing more ECAC/AHA than just B1G and NCHC. Because we should get more of those games in home buildings and we should win more of those games...

 

[AKSWF]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

The Commish did say in that interview that he would like to see WCHA teams filling their non-conference schedule with local/regional rivals whenever possible.

UA_ vs. UAA eight times a year incoming!

 

[Seawolf Fan]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

Here's where I can't figure out all the math on all this, but it would seem like even going .400 against the bottom 1/3 of the Pairwise is better than going .1875 against the top third.

If you're serious about wanting to know ask one of those people like Geoff who enjoy playing with numbers.

 

[Bale]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I get that we need to win. I'm not that mathematically inept. What I was wondering -and obviously didn't state it very well originally- is should we scale back on the NCHC and Big games (24 and 25, respectively) in favor of more AH (6 this year) or ASU (0) games, given how well this worked for OSU and PSU in this year's Pairwise? Even if the AH or ASU games are road games, most of our NCHC games have been road games, and I'd think we'd do better than the 3-18-3 mark we posted against the NCHC this year. Here's where I can't figure out all the math on all this, but it would seem like even going .400 against the bottom 1/3 of the Pairwise is better than going .1875 against the top third.

I think this is the rub that I was concerned about all along though. The budgets of the teams in the WCHA are so thin the way it is that trading gauranteed conference games for games that require even more travel for the sake of MAYBE making the NCAAs is a losing proposition. If you don't get return home games, it creates a precedent that likely isn't going turn around if you start it in that if teams don't have to make a return trip now, they aren't going to do it in the future. At that point, the financial snowball is rolling and it will be difficult to stop are best and impossible to stop at worst.

I'm not sure that the PSU method of scheduling is the way to go for the WCHA. You can do that, but it's incumbant that you win those games (and everyone has to win those games) or else it kills you as a team and it kills the conference. The reverse may be the better option. CC is a perfect example of why I say this. If you look at the Pairwise, CC had 8 wins and was 38th in the pairwise. Meanwhile, NMU had 5 more wins and was 48, Ferris had 5 more wins and was 49, Alaska had 4 more wins and was 52, Lake had 3 more wins and was 53 and UAH had 1 more win and was 56. Even more ****ing is that Bowling Green had a whopping 13 more wins and was tied in the Pairwise with CC at 38th. This is a long way of saying, strength of schedule is huge. The danger of scheduling lesser teams is that if you don't win, it's an even worse situation than what we've got now AND you're traveling further and spending more money without increasing revenue. Remember, the conference went 3-3 against the AHA and 1-4 against the ECAC this year. Success isn't guaranteed.

If the conference as a whole could at least go .500 OOC with the schedules we've got now, we'd be in the running to potentially get 2 teams in the tourney each year. If our teams crap the bed out of conference and then dominate the conference a la BSU this year, it's not going to matter who we're playing.

 

[BGFan]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

Playing non-conference games against lower level competition just to get home games does little to help your pairwise rankings. The Big 10 is finding this out since they are getting few good teams to buy into their 2 for 1 agreement and are, therefore, getting crappy non-conference home games. From a purely selfish POV, this would hurt BG since we now have regular home games scheduled with WMU, Miami, and OSU. We also have a home and home scheduled next year with Michigan State. My guess is that Michigan will eventually follow suit if they can get out of the way of their arrogance.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I think this is the rub that I was concerned about all along though. The budgets of the teams in the WCHA are so thin the way it is that trading gauranteed conference games for games that require even more travel for the sake of MAYBE making the NCAAs is a losing proposition. If you don't get return home games, it creates a precedent that likely isn't going turn around if you start it in that if teams don't have to make a return trip now, they aren't going to do it in the future. At that point, the financial snowball is rolling and it will be difficult to stop are best and impossible to stop at worst.

I'm not sure that the PSU method of scheduling is the way to go for the WCHA. You can do that, but it's incumbant that you win those games (and everyone has to win those games) or else it kills you as a team and it kills the conference. The reverse may be the better option. CC is a perfect example of why I say this. If you look at the Pairwise, CC had 8 wins and was 38th in the pairwise. Meanwhile, NMU had 5 more wins and was 48, Ferris had 5 more wins and was 49, Alaska had 4 more wins and was 52, Lake had 3 more wins and was 53 and UAH had 1 more win and was 56. Even more ****ing is that Bowling Green had a whopping 13 more wins and was tied in the Pairwise with CC at 38th. This is a long way of saying, strength of schedule is huge. The danger of scheduling lesser teams is that if you don't win, it's an even worse situation than what we've got now AND you're traveling further and spending more money without increasing revenue. Remember, the conference went 3-3 against the AHA and 1-4 against the ECAC this year. Success isn't guaranteed.

If the conference as a whole could at least go .500 OOC with the schedules we've got now, we'd be in the running to potentially get 2 teams in the tourney each year. If our teams crap the bed out of conference and then dominate the conference a la BSU this year, it's not going to matter who we're playing.

actually your assessment of why CC is so high is wrong, it is not strength of schedule, it is opp-opp W%. BC the NCHC has such great win percentages and they all play each other, CC gets this doubling effect on all their 24 conference games were against teams that played tough schedules. I mean realistically, what the WCHA should want to do is play the bottom teams of the best conferences because it maximizes OOW% and gives the WCHA teams the best chance to win.

 

[oldish husky]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

actually your assessment of why CC is so high is wrong, it is not strength of schedule, it is opp-opp W%. BC the NCHC has such great win percentages and they all play each other, CC gets this doubling effect on all their 24 conference games were against teams that played tough schedules. I mean realistically, what the WCHA should want to do is play the bottom teams of the best conferences because it maximizes OOW% and gives the WCHA teams the best chance to win.

Playing the bottom teams from best conferences is definitely the strategy. It increases your chances of winning, while providing a potential boost in your common opponent winning percentage if those bottom teams can manage to win 1/4 against the top teams in their league. Now you get to compare a 2-0 record against a 3-1 record and you look really good against Denver as an example, even if they are a better team with RPI. Of course, with RPI being the tie-breaker, with no head-to -head games, this strategy has a ceiling. Only beating good teams can get you over the hump.

 

[Bale]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

actually your assessment of why CC is so high is wrong, it is not strength of schedule, it is opp-opp W%. BC the NCHC has such great win percentages and they all play each other, CC gets this doubling effect on all their 24 conference games were against teams that played tough schedules. I mean realistically, what the WCHA should want to do is play the bottom teams of the best conferences because it maximizes OOW% and gives the WCHA teams the best chance to win.

That was actually my point. Maybe my way of explaining was off. When I said the conference's OOC record is what held up CC was my main point. I blurred the lines by then talking about each individual team.

My larger point is that the only real option for WCHA teams when looking at both competitive balance and finances is to play local teams in the Big Ten and NCHC. Eastern teams are not going to be flocking to the midwest to play us. There is no incentive for them.They are in bus leagues and it keeps expenses down.Why would they raise their expenses by playing Mankato when they can go just down the road and play someone of the same level and not have to pay so much more? The idea just doesn't match the reality.

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

TechHockeyGuide hopes to invest a ton of time into analyzing the PWR this summer. We're going to try and break down the best way to build a schedule, understand how different things effect the rankings. It will be quite the undertaking but hopefully we can shed some light on what the WCHA can do to be better.

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

TechHockeyGuide hopes to invest a ton of time into analyzing the PWR this summer. We're going to try and break down the best way to build a schedule, understand how different things effect the rankings. It will be quite the undertaking but hopefully we can shed some light on what the WCHA can do to be better.

I just finished the rough draft of the article and have attached it below if anyone wants to comment on it.
Ryan J

"How to improve your PWR"
Step 1: Win
Step 2: See step 1

 

[Shirtless Guy]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I just finished the rough draft of the article and have attached it below if anyone wants to comment on it.
Ryan J

"How to improve your PWR"
Step 1: Win
Step 2: See step 1

It's going to be much deeper than that. Understanding how other games effect your PWR, when the NCAA switched from 25/50/25 to 25/21/49 it craters his space where it is much harder to know ahead of time what is better for your team in another result.

 

[purpleinnebraska]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I just finished the rough draft of the article and have attached it below if anyone wants to comment on it.
Ryan J

"How to improve your PWR"
Step 1: Win
Step 2: See step 1

It's solid advice, but I'd also note that in Kato, we won 22 times this year, went 2-0 against the NCHC, 1-1 against the Big, and 1-1 against the ECAC (road win), and weren't even within shouting distance of the top 15 in the Pairwise. I'm not saying we belonged in the field, but I am sorta questioning a system that didn't even have us remotely close to making the field.

 

[JohnsonsJerseys]

Re: 2017 WCHA Playoff Thread - Home Ice Advantage

I am sorta questioning a system that didn't even have us remotely close to making the field.

Well unfortunately you played almost 20% of your games against a team that was #27 in the PWR (Michigan Tech) and some additional game against teams that were even lower. Sorry we could not be of greater assistance... Next year all WCHA teams need to go undefeated all season and we'll fix this problem. Hopefully the WCHA will be cool with the new concept of awarding wins to BOTH teams to help the cause and boost our PWR.

Ryan J