we know how the NHL playoffs can be. Given that the postseason often goes nothing like the regular season, are these the two teams we should expect to reach the Stanley Cup Finals?
To find out, we simulated the playoffs 10,000 times based on a new power-ranking metric that is entirely based on in-game statistics.
The rankings are derived from a statistic created by the blog Rink Stats. For every game, the stat estimates the probability that either team wins the game at every second, based on factors like the current score and power-play situations. The power rankings for each team are their average in-game win probability throughout their entire season, where recent games are more heavily weighted.
The findings: Boston is indeed the overall Cup favorite, but expect some upsets out West.
The Bruins, who won the Presidents' Trophy as the NHL's top regular-season team, have a 14% chance of winning it all and a 23% chance of making the Finals—hardly overwhelming odds, due to hockey's random nature, but the best in the league. In the West, though, the San Jose Sharks have the best odds of winning the Cup (9%) and reaching the finals (17%) despite finishing behind the Ducks.