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2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Subscribed because this season is gonna blow. I saw the previews.
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

So here's a basic weather question for any meteorologist here. When they say that there is a 30% chance of rain, it might mean one of two things:
-- if you have ten days like today, it likely would rain on three of them
-- if you take the area for which the forecast is provided, it will rain in 30% of that area.

I've wondered which of those two options they meant for many years.....
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

FreshFish said:
So here's a basic weather question for any meteorologist here. When they say that there is a 30% chance of rain, it might mean one of two things:
-- if you have ten days like today, it likely would rain on three of them
-- if you take the area for which the forecast is provided, it will rain in 30% of that area.

I've wondered which of those two options they meant for many years.....
Click to expand...

Well if it is ergodic, it won't make a difference. :)
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

FreshFish said:
So here's a basic weather question for any meteorologist here. When they say that there is a 30% chance of rain, it might mean one of two things:
-- if you have ten days like today, it likely would rain on three of them
-- if you take the area for which the forecast is provided, it will rain in 30% of that area.

I've wondered which of those two options they meant for many years.....
Click to expand...

I don't know a single meteorologist who would say that there's a 30% chance of rain over the next 10 days.
 
ScottK said:
I don't know a single meteorologist who would say that there's a 30% chance of rain over the next 10 days.
Click to expand...

That's not what he said Scott.... It's a probabalistic question. Is P(Rain at all today)=.3 or say P(Rain at a randomly chosen time)=.3
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Patman said:
That's not what he said Scott.... It's a probabalistic question. Is P(Rain at all today)=.3 or say P(Rain at a randomly chosen time)=.3
Click to expand...

Still, this line:
FreshFish said:
-- if you have ten days like today, it likely would rain on three of them
Click to expand...

doesn't make any sense from a forecast perspective.

As for the probability itself, most meteorologists don't use them because they are confusing. I usually word my forecasts "Chance of rain" or "Showers possible" or "Rain likely" or "Start building an ark now".
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
As for the probability itself, most meteorologists don't use them because they are confusing.
Click to expand...
I hope that you mean confusing to the public who can't do simple arithmetic, let alone understand probability theory.
 
Ralph Baer said:
I hope that you mean confusing to the public who can't do simple arithmetic, let alone understand probability theory.
Click to expand...

Does that mean if tails has come up the last 5 times, there's a near 100% probability that the next toss will be heads?
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Ralph Baer said:
I hope that you mean confusing to the public who can't do simple arithmetic, let alone understand probability theory.
Click to expand...

Yes, that is what I meant. If people can't understand the forecast, then it's of no use at all.
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Still not sure if I have an answer to the question, although I did get some very good tips on how to phrase it better! :)

To use Patman's terminology: if the forecast says there is a 30% chance of rain.
-- does it mean that there is a 30% likelihood that it will rain at all?
-- or does it mean that there is a very high likelihood that it will rain somewhere in the forecast area (e.g., southern CT, say) and a 30% chance that the "somewhere" will be where you are?
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

FreshFish said:
Still not sure if I have an answer to the question, although I did get some very good tips on how to phrase it better! :)

To use Patman's terminology: if the forecast says there is a 30% chance of rain.
-- does it mean that there is a 30% likelihood that it will rain at all?
-- or does it mean that there is a very high likelihood that it will rain somewhere in the forecast area (e.g., southern CT, say) and a 30% chance that the "somewhere" will be where you are?
Click to expand...

The way I see it, it can mean 1 of 2 things:

1. There is a 30% chance that it will rain in any one spot
2. Any showers that develop will cover 30% of the forecast area.

Since it can be interpreted either way, I usually avoid percentages in my forecasts.
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

ScottK said:
The way I see it, it can mean 1 of 2 things:

1. There is a 30% chance that it will rain in any one spot
2. Any showers that develop will cover 30% of the forecast area.

Since it can be interpreted either way, I usually avoid percentages in my forecasts.
Click to expand...

Got it. Either way, it is the second alternative of my question not the first. Thanks ! :)
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

My line is 50%.

If there's a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, it's almost certainly going to rain at some point. /anecdotal
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

dxmnkd316 said:
My line is 50%.

If there's a 50% chance of rain tomorrow, it's almost certainly going to rain at some point. /anecdotal
Click to expand...


Speaking of "anecdotal," I remember once driving down a street where it was raining on the south side of the street and completely dry on the north side of the street.
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

Happens all the time. Just this weekend we saw it at Canterbury.
 
Re: 2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Non-Minnesotans arguing about the weather...

joecct said:
It will do what it pleases.
Click to expand...

Oh, but you can't expect to wield supreme executive power just because some watery tart threw a sword at you.
 
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