2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

[UnionHockeyManiac]

HUUUGE weekend for Union, but we're still #4 in the Pairwise. Ferris State somehow moved ahead of us. A big thank you to SLU for beating Quinnipiac! The 3 point lead in the standings is nice, but still isn't 100% comfortable. Gotta keep winning. Let's go U!

*Up to #3 in the Pairwise.

 

[UnionFan4Life]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Great weekend for Union! I'm glad to have Rick back for the rest of the season as well. I think this is where we take our game to the next level.

 

[rdf8585]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Here's another highlight from last night, the Ciampini-Carr give-and-go in the third that made it a 3-2 Union lead -

http://youtu.be/3C8ipaHTnCo

Kind of quiet around here considering the big weekend... though the Pairwise is what matters, it will be interesting to see where Union is in the USCHO poll. With Minnesota losing twice and Quinnipiac once, there's a chance the Dutchmen could go from fourth to second. If they are second, it would be their highest-ever ranking. Third may be more likely.

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Here's another highlight from last night, the Ciampini-Carr give-and-go in the third that made it a 3-2 Union lead -

http://youtu.be/3C8ipaHTnCo

Kind of quiet around here considering the big weekend... though the Pairwise is what matters, it will be interesting to see where Union is in the USCHO poll. With Minnesota losing twice and Quinnipiac once, there's a chance the Dutchmen could go from fourth to second. If they are second, it would be their highest-ever ranking. Third may be more likely.

Very quiet here. Where is everyone?

I've been thinking about the poll as well. As you said, the PWR is much more important and it's great to see us at #3 there. If the season ended today, we'd be the #1 seed in Bridgeport. Can't ask for more than that. As for the poll, it'd be incredible to see us in the #2 spot. With Minnesota losing two straight to Wisconsin, I'm guessing/hoping the top 5 will look like this:

1. BC
2. Union
3. Minnesota
4. Ferris
5. Quinnipiac

 

[SPSalum]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Matt Eversmann dropped the puck to start Sat's game. The Yale captain looked up at him and told him that he had just done a term paper on Matt and Black Hawk Down!

 

[Nottme]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

"Very quiet here. Where is everyone?"

Holding my breath... 3 wins in 4 games after the suspensions, players and coaches step up and no one loses their focus. Very proud of all these guys. Next weekend will be even tougher.

 

[Dutchman]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Its great being a Union College Hockey Fan, especially this year, where the expectations were lower than a lot of other teams, in the ECAC. Regardless of how this season ends from here on out, this team has been a joy to watch. Seeing Daniel Carr step up to score that critical 3ed goal against the National Champs, Yale, reminded me of him scoring the winning goal against Harvard two years ago in Atlantic City. We are never going to be able to replace this kid. He epitimizes the upperclassmen leadership that we have seen all year. When the going gets tought ... the tough get going.

I hate polls.

Nationally, looking at the PW we are either tied for 4th with QU and behind Ferris or in 3rd.
Looking at the RPI
College Hockey News http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ncaapwcr.php
Ferris .5712
Union .5704
USCHO http://www.uscho.com/rankings/rpi/d-i-men/ and SiouxSports.com http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/rpi/
Union .5710
Ferris .5707

What the polls don't show is:
- The air is very thin up here in the top 5 and if you breath too much, you will start hallucinating
- There is a great deal of sensitivity in the RPI calculations from #3 to #11 and not so much for BC and Minnessota. Hard to move up .... very easy to drop like a rock.
- Ferris has 6 games remaining and all of their opponents are, in general, in the bottom half of their league (WCHA) and none of them are ranked.
- We are facing six teams that are out for us and four are ranked and one is ranked 6th (woops 9th) and is in a foul mood, has a history of beating us and is almost impossible to beat at home. Another is the defending National Champ.
- While 26 points are great, and usually enought to secure an ECAC bye and home advanatge, as it has been the past 5 seasons, mathematically there are scenerio's, however improbable, where we would not make it.

The good news is that we are doing very well on the road this year. We are 10-2-2 and our only two losses have been 2-1 affairs against very good teams, QU and St. Lawrence. This should give no comfort to our next two opponents. We have 4 more away games.

"Go Dutchmen"

 

[aweise]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

A wise man once said..."Polls are nice, but so are ceramic dalmatians."

Being ranked high in a poll is nothing to sneeze at - it's basically saying that the coaches/media across the country have respect for your team and what you've done over the course of the year.

That said, the polls don't say anything in regards to where you'll end up once the season and conference tourneys are done. The Pairwise is the closest thing to a deciding formula for the NCAA participants and that's really what we should be looking at. At the moment, it does appear that the PWR would project Union to be a #1 seed, likely being placed in Bridgeport. However, it's way too soon to worry about that. We're not even halfway through February, plus we've just started to hit the home stretch in ECAC play.

What I'm concerned about now is clinching a first round bye. With 6 games to go, Union has clinched a top 7 finish. There are plenty of scenarios to work through, but winning games and seeing teams like RPI, Yale, Cornell, and Clarkson not win would be a big help to clinch a top 4 finish. A win over Cornell on Friday (as daunting as that can be) would go a long way towards that goal.

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

I think we're all aware at this point that it's the Pairwise that counts, but I still like waiting for the polls to come out on Monday. I think they players check them too (for better or worse).

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

A wise man once said..."Polls are nice, but so are ceramic dalmatians."

IINM, that's the same wise man who designed the CHN PWR emulator.

 

[sshablak]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

I can't hold back "THE CURSEEEEEEEEEEEEE" !

 

[Dutchman]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Our overall record against Cornell is 14-32-7 which is better than what I thought. We will only need to sweep them for 10 years to even up the record. Since 2003 we have only beated them three times at Lynah, the last being 1/15/2011. Union and Cornell are both tied at 14th on team defense, Cornell's strength. Both Cornell and Union were in the top 10 on defense a few weeks back. Both Cornell and Unions powerplay have fallen on hard times.

PK
Cornell 84.3
Union 80.4
PP
Cornell 21.60
Union 20.43

Since January the numbers favor us but things are skewed since Cornell gave up 4 goals in the third period against Colgate. It looks like it was a close 2-1 in the third. Looks like Cornell gave Golgate 8 PP opportunities and Colgate scored on three of them, two in the last period.

 

[rdf8585]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Union matched its highest-ever ranking this week, sitting third in both polls behind Minnesota (2) and BC (1).

One last video from the weekend - Theo DiPauli's first collegiate goal: http://youtu.be/fMBsifE5hyw

 

[Kepler]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Cornell gave up 4 goals in the third period against Colgate. It looks like it was a close 2-1 in the third.

It wasn't. It was a sort of miracle of mutual terrible play that Colgate wasn't already winning by 3 or 4 even before the third period beat down. I have no explanation for what happened -- like the 10-0 loss to Q last year, there is occasionally a game where the Sisters of the Poor impersonate us. Actually, scratch that. The SoP would have shown some scrappiness and effort.

We have matched up really well against Union, even in the years when Union was a much better squad than we. Not sure why, although I think it may be because both teams have very similar conservative styles. Of the really strong teams in the past few seasons, while Yale was a blur and Q was a hot mess, Union was completely familiar, like playing a slightly more attractive twin.

 

[UnionHockeyManiac]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Thanks to the Build Your Own Rankings Calculator we now have 11 years of Pairwise data to study. In that time there have been 20 teams that qualified thanks to the autobid and 156 who qualified by being ranked high enough (autobid or not) to make the NCAA tournament.

Of the 156 teams, 127 (81.4%) that qualified as of the post-Beanpot Pairwise would have made the eventual field. No teams that were ranked in the top 6 after the Beanpot dropped out of the eventual field. Three teams that were ranked #7 and two more that were #8 fell out of the rankings. "Only" 34 of the 44 (77.3%) teams ranked 9-12 qualified.

The 2010 Northern Michigan squad was ranked #23 and still earned at an-large bid. The 2007 UMass Minutemen were #21. The 2013 Wisconsin Badgers joined the group as a #22 seed. Every other team has been in the top 20 post-Beanpot.

Some teams that are on the doorstep have a track record of success in the last month of the season. #18 North Dakota has come from outside the field three times to qualify. #16 Maine and #24 New Hampshire have done it twice. Those three, along with #9 Cornell, are the only teams to do it more than once.

On the other side, Denver has fallen out three times. Ohio State, Northern Michigan and Colorado College have done it twice. Of those currently in the field, #14 Minnesota-Duluth has done it on two occasions.

Historically, the field should look like this.
Teams in bold are locks (historically)
Teams from 7 and 24 are still in the running.
Teams below 25 need to autobid.

Boston College
Minnesota
Union
Ferris State
Quinnipiac
Mass.-Lowell
----
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Cornell
Michigan
Providence
Northeastern
Vermont
Minnesota-Duluth
Colgate
-
Maine
Yale
North Dakota
Clarkson
Notre Dame
Minnesota State
Western Michigan
Denver
New Hampshire
----
Ohio State
Alaska-Anchorage
St. Lawrence
Brown
Rensselaer
Bowling Green
Nebraska-Omaha
Air Force
Lake Superior
Michigan Tech
Miami
Alaska-Fairbanks
Bentley
Northern Michigan
Mercyhurst
Connecticut
Massachusetts
Michigan State
Harvard
Bemidji State
Merrimack
Boston University
Robert Morris
Canisius
Colorado College
Niagara
Dartmouth
Penn State
Holy Cross
RIT
American Int'l
Princeton
Sacred Heart
Alabama-Huntsville
Army

The results of the Crockpot did not alter this week's bracketology.

According to our friend, Priceless, Union is a lock to make the National Tourney with an at-large bid. I know our goal this year is bigger than just making the tournament, but it's still nice to know that we're in no matter what.

 

[garnetfan]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Here's another highlight from last night, the Ciampini-Carr give-and-go in the third that made it a 3-2 Union lead -

http://youtu.be/3C8ipaHTnCo

Kind of quiet around here considering the big weekend... though the Pairwise is what matters, it will be interesting to see where Union is in the USCHO poll. With Minnesota losing twice and Quinnipiac once, there's a chance the Dutchmen could go from fourth to second. If they are second, it would be their highest-ever ranking. Third may be more likely.

I know it's been a few days since game time but some observations from sat and sun, caught both nights on TV. I think we are making slow and steady improvements in a few areas, this weekend on face offs we won 26 , Brown won 32, an improvement but sat. night we won 36 Yale won 26, both improvements especially sat. night. Offensive play is steadily improving down low and with the D jumping in with the rush and at times leading. Some more than others but every D went down low to put pressure on and sat night I seemed to remember Gingras, Taylor, and Henry using their excellent skating to get inside the blue line, this is in addition to what Bodie and Ghost do on a regular basis. DiPauli's goal was a nice goal down low as well as Hatch and Carr indicating great desire and focus to get pressure on the goalie and defense and scoring. All four lines scored also rounding out each line nicely, the big takeaway from the weekend was how our focus in the 3rd period. To me saturday night's third period was a peek into the future as we progress through the schedule. What stands out overall is that the young guys are learning and the upper classmen and coaches are leading the way, everybody is improving slowly but gradually. I know others caught some things too, enlighten us.

 

[Dutchfan]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

I know it's been a few days since game time but some observations from sat and sun, caught both nights on TV. I think we are making slow and steady improvements in a few areas, this weekend on face offs we won 26 , Brown won 32, an improvement but sat. night we won 36 Yale won 26, both improvements especially sat. night. Offensive play is steadily improving down low and with the D jumping in with the rush and at times leading. Some more than others but every D went down low to put pressure on and sat night I seemed to remember Gingras, Taylor, and Henry using their excellent skating to get inside the blue line, this is in addition to what Bodie and Ghost do on a regular basis. DiPauli's goal was a nice goal down low as well as Hatch and Carr indicating great desire and focus to get pressure on the goalie and defense and scoring. All four lines scored also rounding out each line nicely, the big takeaway from the weekend was how our focus in the 3rd period. To me saturday night's third period was a peek into the future as we progress through the schedule. What stands out overall is that the young guys are learning and the upper classmen and coaches are leading the way, everybody is improving slowly but gradually. I know others caught some things too, enlighten us.

I agree with you on all points. Especially about how the D has been doing a great job of leading the rush and making plays in transition. I thought Gingras and Henry had their best games of their careers on Saturday. I've also noticed over the last three games that Union has been dominating the third period which is a great sign as that was one of the strengths that the Frozen Four team had.

My only gripe from the weekend is that we seem to be passing too much on the power play and looking for the perfect shot. This was especially evident during the Yale game where I thought we relied too much on trying to execute the backdoor play that we used to run through Coburn over his last few seasons.

 

[Dutchman]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Just for the record, Cornell, like us, had a great weekend against Brown and Yale (on the road no less) before playing Colgate. There was a lot of celebration in Ithaca among the faithful before facing Colgate. Here was a pre-game write-up before the Colgate matchup. I borrowed it from one of the Cornell Hockey Blogs. http://cornellhockeywaft.weebly.com/

The offense of the Raiders has improved to the degree of scoring 17.9% more goals per game. Colgate now comfortably averages more than three goals per game. Perhaps more startlingly, Colgate surrenders a modest 2.33 goals per game to its opponents in the second half as compared to the 3.53 goals allowed per game that the Raiders carried into Lynah Rink. Want to belabor a point? Colgate's power-play unit has converted on 25.0% of its power-play opportunities since the Raiders settled for a tie in Ithaca.

Colgate's special teams have increased on the defensive side of play as well. The Raiders's penalty kill has upticked from allowing conversion on 20.3% of opportunities allowed to since allowing opponents to convert on only 18.4% of opportunities. Colgate during its recent run of success, including a shootout win against Minnesota, has become a very difficult team against which to play.

Colgate's offense has become more balanced since the meeting in December. Prior to the December meeting, only seven skaters averaged more than one-tenth of a goal per game. Only Kyle Baun, Darcy Murphy, and Tylor Spink averaged more than 0.40 goals per game. Since the encounter on East Hill, 12 members of the Raiders now average more than one-tenth of a goal per game. High-end production has given way to a balanced attack. No player averages more than 0.50 goals per game now, and only Tylor Spink remains above 0.40 goals per game, but seven skaters average one-third of a goal per game or more. Spiro Goulakos has tied for second in terms of offensive production per game since the first game in the series.

Charles Finn between Colgate's pipes has gotten much better in addition to becoming Don Vaughan's de facto starter. His save percentage has improved from a 0.878 to a 0.922 since he held Cornell to two goals. Despite these performances, Colgate has averaged a scoring margin in its recent run of less than one goal per game in its favor.

Colgate is a great team this season and is a very difficult team to play against. Cornell is too. Cornell's offense has become more balanced. Every line from Ithaca has contributed over its last two series. Frankly, it is amazing to watch.


We have improved but so has the Cornell team we beat and the Colgate team we lost to. Hoping to see us at full strength and at our best this weekend. Time for Union College Hockey.

Go Dutchmen !!!!!

 

[garnetfan]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

I agree with you on all points. Especially about how the D has been doing a great job of leading the rush and making plays in transition. I thought Gingras and Henry had their best games of their careers on Saturday. I've also noticed over the last three games that Union has been dominating the third period which is a great sign as that was one of the strengths that the Frozen Four team had.

My only gripe from the weekend is that we seem to be passing too much on the power play and looking for the perfect shot. This was especially evident during the Yale game where I thought we relied too much on trying to execute the backdoor play that we used to run through Coburn over his last few seasons.

Having the D involved like that if done judiciously must really wear the other team down physically and mentally, I think it helps as the game goes on with our ability to
get behind the D, it must be very confusing to not know where our players are, maybe that little extra time can gives us an advantage.

The overpassing on the PP is hard to explain, it seems to rear it's ugly head every year. It's funny in the seats overpassing and turnovers , besides stupid reefing , gets the loudest response from the loyal and faithful.

 

[sshablak]

Re: 2013-2014 Union Dutchmen - Can U Three Peat? (Part II)

Just for the record, Cornell, like us, had a great weekend against Brown and Yale (on the road no less) before playing Colgate. There was a lot of celebration in Ithaca among the faithful before facing Colgate. Here was a pre-game write-up before the Colgate matchup. I borrowed it from one of the Cornell Hockey Blogs. http://cornellhockeywaft.weebly.com/

The offense of the Raiders has improved to the degree of scoring 17.9% more goals per game. Colgate now comfortably averages more than three goals per game. Perhaps more startlingly, Colgate surrenders a modest 2.33 goals per game to its opponents in the second half as compared to the 3.53 goals allowed per game that the Raiders carried into Lynah Rink. Want to belabor a point? Colgate's power-play unit has converted on 25.0% of its power-play opportunities since the Raiders settled for a tie in Ithaca.

Colgate's special teams have increased on the defensive side of play as well. The Raiders's penalty kill has upticked from allowing conversion on 20.3% of opportunities allowed to since allowing opponents to convert on only 18.4% of opportunities. Colgate during its recent run of success, including a shootout win against Minnesota, has become a very difficult team against which to play.

Colgate's offense has become more balanced since the meeting in December. Prior to the December meeting, only seven skaters averaged more than one-tenth of a goal per game. Only Kyle Baun, Darcy Murphy, and Tylor Spink averaged more than 0.40 goals per game. Since the encounter on East Hill, 12 members of the Raiders now average more than one-tenth of a goal per game. High-end production has given way to a balanced attack. No player averages more than 0.50 goals per game now, and only Tylor Spink remains above 0.40 goals per game, but seven skaters average one-third of a goal per game or more. Spiro Goulakos has tied for second in terms of offensive production per game since the first game in the series.

Charles Finn between Colgate's pipes has gotten much better in addition to becoming Don Vaughan's de facto starter. His save percentage has improved from a 0.878 to a 0.922 since he held Cornell to two goals. Despite these performances, Colgate has averaged a scoring margin in its recent run of less than one goal per game in its favor.

Colgate is a great team this season and is a very difficult team to play against. Cornell is too. Cornell's offense has become more balanced. Every line from Ithaca has contributed over its last two series. Frankly, it is amazing to watch.


We have improved but so has the Cornell team we beat and the Colgate team we lost to. Hoping to see us at full strength and at our best this weekend. Time for Union College Hockey.

Go Dutchmen !!!!!

Can someone put this on the Colgate thread, I don't know how to do it.