2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

[gotice]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm actually rooting for Cornell to beat RPI to give us a chance to finish third. We can't finish second at this point due to the points and games against common opponents but I'd like to avoid a trip to Potsdam in the semis. And yeah, I'm hoping for a win against Clarkson to help our national standing.

Both you and mattj711, bite your tongues. Clarkson isn't giving anything up this weekend.

 

[PrincetonFan]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Looking at the race for the 8th spot, it's looking good for Colgate. They have RPI/Union and (sorry, Union) that seems to be a guaranteed two points. Dartmouth has a North Country road trip and Yale has Princeton/Quinnipiac, so both could get shutout for the weekend.

 

[BTW67]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

I can't believe I'm saying this but I'm actually rooting for Cornell to beat RPI to give us a chance to finish third. We can't finish second at this point due to the points and games against common opponents but I'd like to avoid a trip to Potsdam in the semis. And yeah, I'm hoping for a win against Clarkson to help our national standing.

Don't feel bad. I'll happily root for Harvard and Dartmouth this weekend (sorry Clarky fans). All's fair in love and hockey.

OH YEAH BIG RED!!!

 

[rodney]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Princeton takes third if they win out, Quinni loses or ties in their final two, and RPI and Harvard lose at least one game (they own tie-breakers against Quinni and Harvard, not sure about RPI--since they tied both games they played against each other, it will go to record against top 4, which we don't know yet).

The second tiebreaker is actually total wins...

It goes...
1. head to head
2. league wins
3. record vs. top 4
4. record vs. top 8
5. goal diff head to head
6. goal diff vs. top 4
7. goal diff vs. top 8

 

[PrincetonFan]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

The second tiebreaker is actually total wins...

It goes...
1. head to head
2. league wins
3. record vs. top 4
4. record vs. top 8
5. goal diff head to head
6. goal diff vs. top 4
7. goal diff vs. top 8

Yeah, but in my scenario they would both have 12 league wins.

 

[rodney]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Yeah, but in my scenario they would both have 12 league wins.

Good point. Yeah, if they do end up tied in points it will be because they most likely have the same number of wins.

 

[PrincetonFan]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Good point. Yeah, if they do end up tied in points it will be because they most likely have the same number of wins.

If RPI gets two ties over the weekend (while Princeton sweeps), Princeton would win on the league-win tiebreaker.

 

[mattj711]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

I thought it would be interesting to repost the coaches' poll from the beginning of the season.

1. ST. LAWRENCE(3) 107
2. HARVARD(3) 103
3. DARTMOUTH(5) 93
4. PRINCETON 89
5. CLARKSON(1) 85
6. RENSSELAER 74
7. CORNELL 68
8. COLGATE 52
9. QUINNIPIAC 37
10. YALE 34
11. BROWN 24
12. UNION 11

So it looks like (with one game left to shake out final standings) St. Lawrence, Dartmouth and Princeton under-performed compared to expectations at the beginning of the year. Clarkson, Cornell and Quinnipiac performed better than expected, and Harvard, Rensselaer, Colgate, Yale, Brown and Union pretty much met expectations.

 

[RStarr]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

3 goals in 4 shots? ouch.



wake up Knights.

 

[RStarr]

that's all.

 

[PrincetonFan]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Given that Cornell plays Union today, they've effectively locked up the #1 seed. If Harvard beats Clarkson today, they get #3, and if Quinni beats Brown they get. RPI, win or lose would then get fifth, and if Princeton beats Yale, they get sixth, but if they lose and St. Lawrence beats Dartmouth, the Saints get sixth and Princeton drops to seventh. Dartmouth can lock up the last playoff spot with a win over St. Lawrence or a Yale loss.

It looks like it will be:

Cornell v. Dartmouth
Clarkson v. St. Lawrence
Harvard v. Princeton
Quinnipiac v. RPI

But as Brown's win over Princeton proves, nobody knows anything.

 

[jericho]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Given that Cornell plays Union today, they've effectively locked up the #1 seed. If Harvard beats Clarkson today, they get #3, and if Quinni beats Brown they get. RPI, win or lose would then get fifth, and if Princeton beats Yale, they get sixth, but if they lose and St. Lawrence beats Dartmouth, the Saints get sixth and Princeton drops to seventh. Dartmouth can lock up the last playoff spot with a win over St. Lawrence or a Yale loss.

It looks like it will be:

Cornell v. Dartmouth
Clarkson v. St. Lawrence
Harvard v. Princeton
Quinnipiac v. RPI

But as Brown's win over Princeton proves, nobody knows anything.

That's alot of scenarios, I'll wait until tonight and then I'll tell you the tiebreakers.

 

[Watson Rink]

Maximizing Parity

Maximizing Parity

Fortunately or unfortunately, with only one day remaining, it doesn't seem possible for any five- or six-team dead heats to result, even in this year of near parity.

However, there are various theoretical possibilities that result in multiple dead heats that would be decided by tiebreakers. For example:

32 Cornell, Clarkson
28 RPI, Harvard, Quinnipiac
24 Princeton, SLU

(if Union, Clarkson, RPI and Yale win and Q/Brown and SLU/D tie)

or

32 Cornell
30 Clarkson, Harvard
28 RPI, Quinnipiac
25 Princeton, SLU
19 D
18 Colgate, Yale

(if Union, Harvard, RPI and SLU win and Q/Brown and Y/P tie)

This stuff is more fun than crossword puzzles! Who can come up with the craziest theoretical result?

 

[Skate79]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

This scenario building is making my head spin. But it is good for women's hockey and for the ECAC that we have more competition. We need to build that competitive edge to start to compete with the WCHA for national titles. Because for the past ten years, it has been either Minnesota, UMD or Wisconsin and I'd like to see an Eastern team including Mercyhurst take the title. We've been close but no cigar. Let's light one soon.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Ok so by my account, in the final standings, the relevant tiebreakers are:

Harvard beats Quinnipiac (split H2H, Harvard has more league wins).

RPI beats Princeton (two ties H2H, same # of league wins).
RPI 4-3-1 against top 4 (LL to Cornell, TW vs. Clarkson, WW vs. HU, LW vs. Qpac)
Princeton 3-3-2 against top 4 (LL to Cornell, WL vs. Clarkson, WT vs. HU, WT vs. Quinnipiac).

So it'll be
8. Colgate at 1. Cornell
7. SLU at 2. Clarkson
6. Princeton at 3. Harvard
5. RPI at 4. Quinnipiac

Pretty nice for the ECAC in terms of travel costs! Two pairs of travel partners play each other, and RPI is about as close to Quinnipiac as Princeton.

 

[papulaisle]

2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Congratulations to Colgate-didn't leave any room for anyone to take something from them this weekend. Won both the games they needed to win to make the tournament. Great job. And great 'exit' (from regular season Conference play...) for Katie Stewart scoring two today on TEN shots!
Sign of class.

 

[Skate79]

Re: 2009-2010 ECAC Playoff Picture

Ok so by my account, in the final standings, the relevant tiebreakers are:

Harvard beats Quinnipiac (split H2H, Harvard has more league wins).

RPI beats Princeton (two ties H2H, same # of league wins).
RPI 4-3-1 against top 4 (LL to Cornell, TW vs. Clarkson, WW vs. HU, LW vs. Qpac)
Princeton 3-3-2 against top 4 (LL to Cornell, WL vs. Clarkson, WT vs. HU, WT vs. Quinnipiac).

So it'll be
8. Colgate at 1. Cornell
7. SLU at 2. Clarkson
6. Princeton at 3. Harvard
5. RPI at 4. Quinnipiac

Pretty nice for the ECAC in terms of travel costs! Two pairs of travel partners play each other, and RPI is about as close to Quinnipiac as Princeton.

The travel costs may work for this first round but the semis and finals are another story altogether. Harvard and Princeton face the longest hauls followed by Q-Pac and RPI if everything plays out according to form. The Crimson if they get by Princeton will travel to Potsdam assuming Clarkson wins their series and then assuming Cornell wins theirs, would have to travel to Ithaca for the final. This may sound crazy but if Harvard does have to travel to Potsdam and somehow Cornell loses in the semis to say RPI or QPac, the Crimson would turn right around and travel back to Cambridge and the travel would actually be worse for them between games then going to Ithaca I think. This of course assumes that Harvard beats Clarkson. I'm not even sure they'll get by SLU at this point. They've been pretty mediocre these past few weeks.

You always want home ice but securing it by way of this new setup isn't exactly a walk in the park.

 

[Watson Rink]

Jekyll, Hyde and Whoever

Jekyll, Hyde and Whoever

Crimson fans may have to set their sights beyond the ECACs to the NCAAs, if this season's past results are any harbinger.

The statistics are astonishing:

Against Group A: 12-0-0, +31 goal differential
Against Group B: 1-6-3, -2 goal differential
Against Group C: 5-0-2, +9 goal differential

Pretty consistent within each group, huh? And who are Groups A, B and C?

Group A = the six lowest ranking ECAC teams
Group A = the five highest ranking ECAC teams
Group A = the six HE and WCHA teams they've played, all but one ranked in the national top 10 at one point or another this season.

Since everybody they're likely to play in the ECACs has defeated them at least once, a three-round elimination tournament appears pretty risk-fraught, to say the least!

On the other hand, the silver lining is that you can't lose to more than one team in the tournament, so their PWR (which already reflects all those previous losses to the same teams) probably can't sustain too bad a hit from a single loss if/when they do get eliminated.

Being ranked higher nationally than in your conference is pretty anomalous. (As a funny aside, there was one year in which the national squash powers that be required secondary school players to take a test on the rules in order to be ranked nationally; for several weeks, early takers of the test sported national rankings far better than their Massachusetts rankings -- Xth best in the country (supposedly) though only 8Xth best in the state!)