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117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!
- Thread starter Kepler
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psych
Well-known member
Looks like voters overwhelmingly elected Democrat Melanie Stansbury, to Secretary of the Interior Haaland’s old seat, the New Mexico 1st District. Looks like a 25-point win in a D +9 district, one Biden won by 23, I think. Too lazy to verify my numbers. Either way, a nice win after getting shut out in Texas’ special district last month.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
Yeah that is a nice win. They need as many seats as possible so every hold counts!
Drew,
If it was Meth Heads she would have shot them ;^)
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dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Texas is a gerrymandered mess. Can't use it as much of a barometer for anything since it's not representative. And from my five minute google, it looks like there was never a reasonable chance of victory anyways.
I think you have it right though about measuring against the 2020 and 2018 elections. Good sign there.
psych
Well-known member
It is a gerrymandered mess, but Biden only lost that current district’s iteration by 3 points. The supposed rationale for Democrats not trying as hard there is the lines will get redrawn to make it redder anyways come redistricting, but I think that’s weak as fuck. Give yourself a fucking chance to win while you can. Not to mention the momentum boost that may have provided Democrats, despite, like you said, special elections almost never being a good barometer for general elections.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
psych is now my spirit animal!
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
Meh. I wouldn't point to the 2020 presidential results there as anything but a referendum on trump. The R won the race by almost 9. Ds were outvoted by nearly 30 in the first round of the special election.
psych
Well-known member
You sure you want to be that associated with an adopted Kentuckian?
dx, we’ll agree to disagree. In an R+6 district, Democrats should have done a better job of consolidating behind one candidate and at least advanced to the second round. No, I don’t think they would have won.
All states have their pluses. Minnesota has its pluses.
Top notch rosemaling, great neighbors . . . .
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
We also tend to have a full set of teeth and chromosomes...and we have seen the beauty that trees bring to the world. Oh and we have way better beer!
(taking shots at both NoDak and Sconnie!)
I take it the first shot was aimed at both.
Handyman
Hug someone you care about...
I may have less than a full set of teeth, a rather prominent brow, and longer forearms than normal, but every time I pass through Swamp Wobegon those Minnie women are all over me like they've never seen a real man before. Y'all should spend less time drinking good beer and looking at pretty trees.
dxmnkd316
Lucia Apologist
That's fair. But I think the data says it's extremely difficult. Only four House members won seats in 2018 districts PVI+9 using the 2020 data. All lost in 2020. And hell, only 9 won in 2018 PVI+6. All but two lost in 2020. I don't think it's as easy as you're making it out to be.
As an aside, I hadn't seen the new CPVI. I was thinking they were still R+9, not +6. Either way. Still a hard sell.
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Spartanforlife4
Generic Catchy Message
Why was Sinema with Cornyn yesterday championing the filibuster?
At least Manchin hangs out with the moderate Republicans…
At least Manchin hangs out with the moderate Republicans…
ScoobyDoo
NPC
Cornyn? Yeah, that's who I would want to associate with if I were a Democrat. Cornyn is only doing it so he can appear to be mainstream. There is no benefit for Sinema. None at all.
The Sicatoka
Kicizapi Cetan
DC Sinema is not campaigning Sinema. That just flat confuses me. Where did this Sinema come from?
Manchin, yeah, gonna Manchin.
Manchin, yeah, gonna Manchin.
Kepler
Cornell Big Red
Sinema and Manchin are just contemporary Clintonistas*: the rights of oppressed minorities are bargaining chips.
Apparently they never listened to Billy Bragg:
* Speaking of, Terry McAuliffe is running for Governor of Virginia. Guh. See you next Tuesday, Terry. Unfortunately, he'll win purely on name recognition.
Apparently they never listened to Billy Bragg:
* Speaking of, Terry McAuliffe is running for Governor of Virginia. Guh. See you next Tuesday, Terry. Unfortunately, he'll win purely on name recognition.
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FadeToBlack&Gold
Microlot Marxist
She campaigned as a moderate Dem in a purple state. Since the election, she's revealed herself to be more of a Country Club Republican. She's better than McSally in the sense that she doesn't gargle Trump's balls and/or openly support fascism, but that's a pretty low bar.
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