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117th Congress: DEMS IN DISARRAY!!!111!!

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Ok, just looked at the 2016 numbers vs. the polling averages. Where the polls missed was on Trump's share of the undecideds. They almost all swung towards Trump. And this is where the tail risk comes from. If your undecideds are fairly large relative to the margin, winner-take-all makes insane swings.

Of the states where the result was flipped from where the polls predicted:
  • ME-2
    • Clinton: Polled 41.1, Actual 41.0, error 0.2%
    • Trump: Polled 40.5%, Actual 51.3%, error 20.9%
  • Wisconsin:
    • Clinton: 46.6, 46.5, 0.2%
    • Trump: 41.6, 47.2, 11.8%
  • Michigan:
    • Clinton: 45.7, 47.3, 3.4%
    • Trump: 42.5, 47.5, 10.5%
  • Pennsylvania:
    • Clinton: 46.5, 47.5. 2.0%
    • Trump: 43.5, 48.2, 9.8%
  • North Carolina:
    • Clinton: 46.4, 46.2, 0.6%
    • Trump: 45.3, 49.8, 9.0%
  • Florida:
    • Clinton: 46.4, 47.8, 3.0%
    • Trump: 45.5, 49.0, 7.2%
So what I find interesting is that they all very much nailed the Clinton share of the vote, but badly, badly missed on the trump side. I suspect, and quickly looking at the data, almost all of that came from overestimating Gary Johnson. MN had a polling average of 7%+ for Johnson. In the end, he only grabbed half that.
 
Looks like Sinema’s opening bid on the Manchin/Schumer bill is nixing the nixing of the carried interest loophole, and receiving $5 billion for drought resiliency in Arizona.
 
psych said:
Looks like Sinemaâ??s opening bid on the Manchin/Schumer bill is nixing the nixing of the carried interest loophole, and receiving $5 billion for drought resiliency in Arizona.
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Wait, she wants to close the loophole or leave it open?

nevermind. I see the double mixing.

Tell her no dice and very publicly offer to double the drought resilience to $10B
 
Kepler said:
Jon's audience is over 50 now. Remember, he started at TDS a quarter of a century ago.
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I have watched every show Stewart has done since the Young Comedians special including his original run on the old Comedy Central Short Attention Span Theater (including his crappy MTV talk show) and I am 42. Just saying.
 
Handyman said:
I have watched every show Stewart has done since the Young Comedians special including his original run on the old Comedy Central Short Attention Span Theater (including his crappy MTV talk show) and I am 42. Just saying.
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Yeah, he only left the Daily Show in 2015. Say a kid watched it for all of high school and Stewart left when they graduated, they’re only 25ish now.
 
I don't have any strong feelings on Silver or polling or his methodology, but I remember back in 2016 listening to an NPR story on polling. One of the pollsters identified that he thought that many respondents were lying to him, and likely to other pollsters. He had no way of quantifying or even proving that and acknowledged that, and in fact basically left it as "well, we can only go by what people explicitly say, so these are our numbers".

But that resonated with me. I know, personally, a bunch of people who either said they were voting for Clinton or never said anything, who then voted for Trump. Their reasons likely vary, but I feel like it was a sizeable number. You have an entire segment of people who absolutely won't respond to polls because something something fake news something liberal bias something something.
 
Swansong said:
I don't have any strong feelings on Silver or polling or his methodology, but I remember back in 2016 listening to an NPR story on polling. One of the pollsters identified that he thought that many respondents were lying to him, and likely to other pollsters. He had no way of quantifying or even proving that and acknowledged that, and in fact basically left it as "well, we can only go by what people explicitly say, so these are our numbers".

But that resonated with me. I know, personally, a bunch of people who either said they were voting for Clinton or never said anything, who then voted for Trump. Their reasons likely vary, but I feel like it was a sizeable number. You have an entire segment of people who absolutely won't respond to polls because something something fake news something liberal bias something something.
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He appealed to bigotry, something many people support only in the dark and will often refuse to admit its appeal even to themselves.
 
burd said:
He appealed to bigotry, something many people support only in the dark and will often refuse to admit its appeal even to themselves.
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When (if) histories of this period are written in fifty years, Dump will be the watershed where racists and misogynists stopped pretending in public and showed themselves as they really are.
 
Kepler said:
When (if) histories of this period are written in fifty years, Dump will be the watershed where racists and misogynists stopped pretending in public and showed themselves as they really are.
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I think so, and it is a frightening indictment of a large number of those around us. Of "us." Though not surprising.
 
Handyman said:
I know that sucks but we needed her yes. If we want any shot in the midterms we need the Reconciliation Bill.
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Yep. But she has to know she's done after her single term.

It's too bad she and Kelly couldn't trade terms, because if she was up this year there would be way more pressure on her.
 
unofan said:
Yep. But she has to know she's done after her single term.

It's too bad she and Kelly couldn't trade terms, because if she was up this year there would be way more pressure on her.
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Yeah I have said that a lot recently. If she was up in November she doesn't pull half the crap she pulls now. As it is she has a couple years to play out the string. Problem is she has burned so many bridges I am not sure what she will do next.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Sounds like we lost the carried interest but added a 1% excise on stock buybacks.
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The more I think about this, the more I think we actually came out ahead. 1% on all buybacks has to be more than what fund managers make on going from 15% to 37%, right?
 
unofan said:
Yep. But she has to know she's done after her single term.
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That's what this was, her bribe from the financial industry that sets her up for life. Who knows how much she received? It would have been worth billions to them to pay her off.
 
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