What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

116th Congress: F-cker WAS Impeached. Still not enough.

Status
Not open for further replies.
Senate:
  • 538's Senate forecast ticked up to 52-48 yesterday. (52/52/53 - deluxe/classic/simple)
  • Economist ticked up to 52.6-47.4
  • Cook Political had the following changes a week ago
    EkNVKYFX0AAKtHl
  • Sabato:
    Old to New
    Joni Ernst (R-IA)Toss-upLeans Democratic
House:
538: 239-196 (239/241/248)
Economist: 243-192
CPR:
Ek2gXgsXgAEn1MA

SCB: (Old to new; 10/15/20)
A. Kirkpatrick (D, AZ-2)Likely DemocraticSafe Democratic
Lucy McBath (D, GA-6)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Sharice Davids (D, KS-3)Likely DemocraticSafe Democratic
Elissa Slotkin (D, MI-8)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Ann Wagner (R, MO-2)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Don Bacon (R, NE-2)Leans RepublicanToss-up
Andy Kim (D, NJ-3)Leans DemocraticLikely Democratic
Peter DeFazio (D, OR-4)Likely DemocraticLeans Democratic




If I'm a Republican, I'm fucking terrified of what's coming. The movement has been consistently left, and it's increasing momentum.
 
Oh, and two things worth noting locally.
1) MN-01 going from Lean R to Toss-up is... surprising. This district is kind of an oddball. Watch it closely election night. Not sure I'd call it a bellwether, but maybe. Cook PVI is +5R. I thought Hagedorn was going to get re-elected this year. BUt if they're calling it a toss-up now....
2) MN-02 going to Likely D is a very good sign for that seat. It moves pretty much all of the ratings groups into the likely D category. She's a first term DFLer in a district that's only seen a DFLer in it 10 of the last 80 years. I know people who live in her district, it is... very white and fairly affluent. But there's also a lot of rural areas. If she becomes a fixture, that's a good sign for what's happening in the white suburban areas.
 
MN-01 is weird in that it flip flops from time to time...but Hagedorn only won because Walz is governor now. Walz would have had that seat til he died if he wanted it.
 
Handyman said:
MN-01 is weird in that it flip flops from time to time...but Hagedorn only won because Walz is governor now. Walz would have had that seat til he died if he wanted it.
Click to expand...

You mean Hitler Timmy
 
I will believe it when she loses. I don't see any way Biden has better numbers than her to that degree. Especially since no one likes Jason Lewis.

Smells fishy like the Rass poll out of Ohio.

Edit: 43-42...that is a lot of people saying neither. I don't buy it...
 
Last edited:
Ok lots of questions about that poll.
Somehow 12% Undecided w/ 5% MOE?

the only way this makes sense is if they exclude people who have already voted
 
So I was looking at SurveyUSA's detailed polling breakdown from this poll and last revision. Either these people are clowns or I'm very wrong about how this election is going to go.

On their 10/7 poll of POTUS and Senate for MN, there was some absolute crazy crosstabs:
Trump-Lewis: 79%
Trump-Smith: 7% (!!)
Undecided: 12%
Other: 2%
---
Biden-Lewis: 5%
Biden-Smith: 82%
Undec: 10%
Other: 3%
---
Women:
Lewis: 30%
Smith: 47%
Undec: 22% (!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)
Other: 2%
---
Men:
Lewis: 44%
Smith: 41%
Und: 10%
Other: 5%
---
Overall:
Lewis: 37%
Smith: 44%
Und: 16% (!!)
Other: 4%

I don't for a second believe that 22% of women are undecided.
 
538 has Smith-D 92% likely over Lewis-R.

In fact unless something shakes up or the polling is massively wrong things are pretty set:

D flips (4):

CO Hickenlooper (Gardner)
ME Gideon (Collins)
NC Cunningham (Tillis)
AZ Kelly (McSally)

R flips (1):

AL Tuberville (Jones)


D Maybes (up to 2):

IA Greenfield (Ernst)
GA Warnock (Loeffler)

So the Dems control the Senate (with a Biden win) with either 50, 51, or 52.
 
Last edited:
Roughly 40% of Iowa votes have been cast. Registered Dems have about 140,000 more votes cast than Rs thus far with solid leads in 3 of the 4 congressional districts. Combined with polls showing the Dems lead solidly in all 3 districts and are actually starting competitive in Steve King's old district, and gotta think Ernst is starting to sweat.
 
unofan said:
Roughly 40% of Iowa votes have been cast. Registered Dems have about 140,000 more votes cast than Rs thus far with solid leads in 3 of the 4 congressional districts. Combined with polls showing the Dems lead solidly in all 3 districts
Click to expand...

To be fair the same forces driving super high Dem early voting could also drive super high GOP in-person.
 
Kepler said:
To be fair the same forces driving super high Dem early voting could also drive super high GOP in-person.
Click to expand...

Iowa is roughly split 34-34-32 R-D-I. Roughly 700k registrations for each.

In that context, half of all registered Ds have already voted compared to about 2/7ths of Rs. I'd rather have those banked.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top