Some thoughts:
1) Kep, there is hope on the tax thing. People are finally understanding the GOP is either a cult or a money laundering enterprise. They wouldn't be passing a stealth cut in the middle of the night if they thought it appealed to even their base. Everybody knows this is a payoff to billionaire GOP donors pure and simple. If middle class people supporting tax cuts for the 1% had any resonance Roy Moore would be in the senate right now because that's basically the argument he, Trump and Bannon were making to elect him (and to get right leaning voters to overlook the fact that he's a conservaperv). Virginia is another good example of this.
2) Saw a funny tweet which said something like why would anybody expect Roy Moore to concede the race when he hasn't yet conceded which side won the Civil War.
3) I really don't get the angst about Minnesota. So out of office for 10 years, creature of DC, boring a ss Tim Pawlenty is an unstoppable force now? Yikes. I'd say he'd be 50/50 to make it out of a primary. Even if he does, if Dems are struggling to win the Minnesota senate seat (provided they didn't nominate a Dem Roy Moore type) I wouldn't worry about it, because that means they've already lost about 10 other Senate seats.

If Trumpism isn't playing in Alabama, I'm not sure how well it plays in Minny, but that's just me. Doesn't hurt to have a female candidate in the wake of Franken however.