What's new
By:
USCHO Fan Forum

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

  • The USCHO Fan Forum has migrated to a new plaform, xenForo. Most of the function of the forum should work in familiar ways. Please note that you can switch between light and dark modes by clicking on the gear icon in the upper right of the main menu bar. We are hoping that this new platform will prove to be faster and more reliable. Please feel free to explore its features.

115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

Status
Not open for further replies.
Re: 115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

From 538: Exit polls show Moore winning 56-37 among voters who decided in the last few days — perhaps a sign of the GOP base coming home to him.
...
...
...
You really can't cure stupid.
 
Re: 115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

dxmnkd316 said:
Sorry. Bad math. It was a 10.2 spread.

95% of the black vote went to Jones and made up 30% of the voters.
27% of the white vote went to Jones and made up 70% of the voters.
Click to expand...

I did it wrong again.

95% of 30% = .285
27% of 70% = .189

5% of 30% = 0.015
70% of 70% = .49 (I originally assumed the rest of the whites were going for Moore)

So 47.4% to 50.5% = 3.1 points.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
I did it wrong again.

95% of 30% = .285
27% of 70% = .189

5% of 30% = 0.015
70% of 70% = .49 (I originally assumed the rest of the whites were going for Moore)

So 47.4% to 50.5% = 3.1 points.
Click to expand...

There's 3% Hispanic in there, too, so you're still slightly over counting Moore's white vote.

But he's still the favorite, I think.
 
Re: 115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

dxmnkd316 said:
90. And I’m guessing at 97.5% the networks will start calling it.
Click to expand...

It's still really volatile. The % doesn't matter, the confidence margin does and right now it's still 20-points wide (D+14 to R+06).
 
Re: 115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

dxmnkd316 said:
NYT has their awesome forecasting tool up. It was calling trump long before any other sites I watched in 2016.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/r...pStories&pgtype=Homepage#eln-forecast-section
Click to expand...

cool site, but they've sure got that needle flopping through an awfully wide range of outcomes although the percentages of "actual" haven't changed much. I'm guessing the fast action predictions get them more clicks/views. When I checked earlier it was slightly over on Moore's side, then WAY over on Jones, now nearer the middle again.
 
Re: 115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

The Upshot map right now is amazing. Moore is +7 in votes cast, but almost everything left is blue cities and black belt where they predict Jones +14.

Unless the GOP had a huge vote suppression mechanism we ought to see the margin start to decrease very soon.
 
Re: 115th Congress: On Permanent Vacation

joecct said:
So was Sec/Sen Clinton.
Click to expand...

Except nobody thought this on election night. Hillary was about a 80% favorite. Dump would win 1 in 5 trials, and he won.

An upset, yes, but not the crazy pants upset you always suggest.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top