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115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

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Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Handyman said:
Ossoff is running away with the special election but his projections put him around 48% when all is said and done meaning there will be a runoff. Handel is in second place with 18% :eek:

Live Results Here
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This election is nothing more than economic development for Georgia. I saw on the news last night that something like $8 million flowed into Georgia from California, in support of Ossoff, before last night's vote. Those numbers should insure the cash keeps flowing east for a little while longer. :p
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

I consider moral victories to be whipped cream on $%%t, but having said that the fact that the Dem is sitting at 48 is a pretty good sign. Outran the polling by about 8 points and also outran Hillary by 1%. The kicker here is 1) if Dems stay engaged, as in all his people show up again for the final round, and 2) if Handel can consolidate all GOP support from the 50 other candidates that essentially ran against her. I find #2 to be more unlikely than #1. If the Dems got around 40% he'd be in trouble. Given the vote totals we've seen, they'd better win this race in June or its going to be same sh !t different year.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

BassAle said:
Consider Obama lost this congressional district by 23 points in 2012. 538 would put the Republican advantage somewhere between Trump's (1.5 points) and Romney's (23 points) using a weighted average to estimate that a Republican should win Georgia 6 by around 10 points if the presidential candidates were polling about 50/50 nationally. This is looking pretty good for Democrats -- Republicans have to defend almost 50 house seats that are bluer than Georgia 6, which is now a tossup. The Ds need to win 24 of those.
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This is an excellent way to put it. The other thing is the elections are not truly independent trials. It's more like water level.

Incumbency is a mixed blessing. If the country is in better shape (or feels like it's in better shape anyway) in another 18 months the GOP should do fine, and should deserve it. If the country goes to hell, they'll get clobbered as well they should.

Democracy fails around the edges but the general idea is sound.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

ScoobyDoo said:
Trump only won by one point in that district. Democrats believed that they could win Georgia. These are just facts. I hope Handy is correct and Ossoff does win, but I seriously doubt it. Perez was on Morning Joe this morning and it was more of the clueless DNC rhetoric that never ends.
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You realize they havent lost in Georgia yet right?
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Handyman said:
You realize they havent lost in Georgia yet right?
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I think he means Dems believed they could win GA in 2016.

GA did look pretty close until Comey, Assange, and Putin put their fingers on the scale.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Rover said:
I consider moral victories to be whipped cream on $%%t, but having said that the fact that the Dem is sitting at 48 is a pretty good sign. Outran the polling by about 8 points and also outran Hillary by 1%. The kicker here is 1) if Dems stay engaged, as in all his people show up again for the final round, and 2) if Handel can consolidate all GOP support from the 50 other candidates that essentially ran against her. I find #2 to be more unlikely than #1. If the Dems got around 40% he'd be in trouble. Given the vote totals we've seen, they'd better win this race in June or its going to be same sh !t different year.
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That is all obviously true. It should be noted though that unless there was a massive upswell of voters overall (or I guess downswell works too though it would need to be significant) it is quite likely that some that voted for Price voted for Ossoff. Some GOP voters did not vote for any of those candidates and went with the youth vote.

But yeah the Dems need to stay engaged. They need to find every little thing they can on Handle and destroy her. Hell I am guessing there was a little mudslinging between Handel and the rest of the GOP wannabes so use it. Tie her Trump at every turn...he is on thin ice there anyways.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Kepler said:
I think he means Dems believed they could win GA in 2016.

GA did look pretty close until Comey, Assange, and Putin put their fingers on the scale.
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Oh then yeah he is right. I dont think any of that is the reason Georgia didnt flip though...I think the polls were just skewed by the fact that people didnt want to admit they supported Trump. I dont think Georgia was ever as close as it looked.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

48 / 2 = 2 Dems in the runoff. Seems like a missed opportunity to me.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

There is no guarantee that if another popular Dem ran they would split the vote or that they would have done so to the point they both finish in the top 2. People voted for Ossoff as much as they did for party.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Handyman said:
There is no guarantee that if another popular Dem ran they would split the vote or that they would have done so to the point they both finish in the top 2. People voted for Ossoff as much as they did for party.
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It would have taken an organized effort, for sure.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Kepler said:
Please. The RNC couldn't even stop a penny-ante carnival barker from taking over their party.
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Uh, huh. That's why the entire country all the way down to the school boards is a sea of red.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Handyman said:
Oh then yeah he is right. I dont think any of that is the reason Georgia didnt flip though...I think the polls were just skewed by the fact that people didnt want to admit they supported Trump. I dont think Georgia was ever as close as it looked.
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That could be, but then you'd have expected computer polls to be more favorable to Trump than human polls. IIRC, there was no difference.
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

ScoobyDoo said:
Uh, huh. That's why the entire country all the way down to the school boards is a sea of red.
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The DNC doesn't get involved in local races -- those are coordinated by the state parties. The Republican success in local races comes down to two things:

1) fundies swarm all over school board and town elections because TEH ABORSHUN!!!1! and they have nothing else to do when they're not home indoctrinating their families of 14 inbred cousins, and

2) Koch et al money gets poured into high profile local and all state leg elections to finance their plutocratic coup d'etat.


The RNC isn't any more capable than the DNC, and they've got the same schism that the GOP in general has between the corporate shills and the Freedom Caucus thugs.
 
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Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

Kepler said:
That could be, but then you'd have expected computer polls to be more favorable to Trump than human polls. IIRC, there was no difference.
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Did the computer polls actually take into account unregistered voters or voters who hadnt voted recently? The human polls ignored them...
 
Re: 115th Congress. In Bridge, Can Hearts be Trumped? In Spades!

BassAle said:
**** yeah! I hate that ****** bag.

Unfortunately some other republican ***** is guaranteed to win that seat.

edit: is it really necessary for USCHO to censor pr1ck?
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Maybe...though if they support the BS GOP ACHA proposal the same people who hate Chaffetz will hate the newbie too.
 
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