Say What? Time to start the old who get’s in – who stays home D-III Bracketology ‘09-‘10 thread. So for starters and newbee’s new to this annual whine-a-thon (also Matt if you still want to play
), a little review of the criteria:
Primary Criteria:
Win/Loss % in region
Strength-of-Schedule in region (utilizing the new methodology for this year & next)
Head to Head in region
Results vs common opponents in region
Results vs ranked teams in region
Secondary Criteria:
Head to Head out of region
Overall D-III Win/Loss %
Results vs common non D-III opponents
Results vs all D-III ranked teams
Overall Win/Loss %
Results vs all common opponents
Strength-of-Schedule all D-III opponents
Win/Loss % last 25% of season
Now I’m too lazy to type all the numbers at this time of the year so you have to trust me on the match-up winners. If you have specific questions, ask and I’ll give you the results.
The West
MIAC – St Thomas leads for the Auto (but history says GAC will get it) with GAC, St Kate’s and St Olaf in the mix
NCHA – Lake Forest leads for the Auto with Adrian, Stevens Point, River Falls and Superior in the mix
With the way things are shaking out, the West gets their Auto’s and then has to fight in the Secondary for a third team as no one really stands out at this time. Putting the 9 teams above under the Primary Criteria microscope, here is what happens on the matchups between teams (teams in red considered ranked):
GAC pushes with LF and loses to RF while LF beats RF and also pushes with STU and RF has a loss to Adr and push with Sup. Look for 2 of the top 3 teams having to move to Secondary Criteria to have a chance and right now that is GAC and RF. The rest can only hope to win their playoff to get in.
The East
ECAC – East – Norwich leads with Manhattanville in the mix.
ECAC – West – Plattsburgh appears a lock on the Auto with Elmira and RIT in the mix.
NESCAC – Amherst leads for the Auto with Trinity and Middlebury in the mix.
Putting the 8 teams above under Primary Criteria scrutiny here is what happens on the matchups between teams (all teams considered ranked and also Salve Regina):
Both Amh and Trin lose to Platt, Trin and Elm lose to Amh and push each other. Again everyone else can only hope to win their playoff to get in. Trin and Elm move to Secondary Criteria.
Secondary:
Elm ends up 2-1-0 beating both GAC and RF while losing to Trin. Trin ends up 2-0-1 beating RF and pushing GAC. GAC is at 0-2-1 with another lose to RF and RF ends up 1-2-0.
Therefore based on assuming league leaders today get their Auto bid (a really bad assumption), my guess at how the NCAA will rank the teams and that regionally ranked teams will also be the nationally ranked teams, and not having the Last 25% of the schedule factored in yet, here are the selections:
Auto Bid – Norwich, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Lake Forest and St Thomas, with the two At-large going to Elmira and Trinity. Best bet is Final Four at Plattsburgh – it’s the economy Stupid.
), a little review of the criteria:Primary Criteria:
Win/Loss % in region
Strength-of-Schedule in region (utilizing the new methodology for this year & next)
Head to Head in region
Results vs common opponents in region
Results vs ranked teams in region
Secondary Criteria:
Head to Head out of region
Overall D-III Win/Loss %
Results vs common non D-III opponents
Results vs all D-III ranked teams
Overall Win/Loss %
Results vs all common opponents
Strength-of-Schedule all D-III opponents
Win/Loss % last 25% of season
Now I’m too lazy to type all the numbers at this time of the year so you have to trust me on the match-up winners. If you have specific questions, ask and I’ll give you the results.
The West
MIAC – St Thomas leads for the Auto (but history says GAC will get it) with GAC, St Kate’s and St Olaf in the mix
NCHA – Lake Forest leads for the Auto with Adrian, Stevens Point, River Falls and Superior in the mix
With the way things are shaking out, the West gets their Auto’s and then has to fight in the Secondary for a third team as no one really stands out at this time. Putting the 9 teams above under the Primary Criteria microscope, here is what happens on the matchups between teams (teams in red considered ranked):
Code:
W L T
[COLOR="red"]LF[/COLOR] 6 0 2
[COLOR="red"]GAC[/COLOR] 6 1 1
[COLOR="red"]RF[/COLOR] 5 2 1
[COLOR="red"]Adr[/COLOR] 3 2 3
[COLOR="red"]Sup[/COLOR] 2 3 3
[COLOR="red"]SP[/COLOR] 1 3 4
STO 1 4 3
STK 0 3 5
STU 0 6 2The East
ECAC – East – Norwich leads with Manhattanville in the mix.
ECAC – West – Plattsburgh appears a lock on the Auto with Elmira and RIT in the mix.
NESCAC – Amherst leads for the Auto with Trinity and Middlebury in the mix.
Putting the 8 teams above under Primary Criteria scrutiny here is what happens on the matchups between teams (all teams considered ranked and also Salve Regina):
Code:
W L T
Plat 7 0 0
Amh 6 1 0
Trin 4 2 1
Elm 4 2 1
Man 3 4 0
Nor 1 5 1
Mid 0 5 3
RIT 0 6 1Secondary:
Elm ends up 2-1-0 beating both GAC and RF while losing to Trin. Trin ends up 2-0-1 beating RF and pushing GAC. GAC is at 0-2-1 with another lose to RF and RF ends up 1-2-0.
Therefore based on assuming league leaders today get their Auto bid (a really bad assumption), my guess at how the NCAA will rank the teams and that regionally ranked teams will also be the nationally ranked teams, and not having the Last 25% of the schedule factored in yet, here are the selections:
Auto Bid – Norwich, Plattsburgh, Amherst, Lake Forest and St Thomas, with the two At-large going to Elmira and Trinity. Best bet is Final Four at Plattsburgh – it’s the economy Stupid.
If Middlebury or someone besides this group wins a Tournament, then you can start working your way up from the bottom as who doesn’t get in. Manhattanville loses, they are out. Plattsburgh, Amherst or Gustavus lose and either LF or RF is out. Etc. etc. etc.
The old Cray has all of this calculated, so it is what it is.