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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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ScoobyDoo said:
Depends on your definition of go to pot. The way this electorate functions we may be back to needing to lose this time so that we get the correction in 2024. Unfortunately that might mean that the election is 2024 really will be stolen. Which means Democracy is dead. But, hey, the Repubs always get their way in the end anyway.
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To pot means both houses and enough governor spots and SOS positions that 2024 doesn't matter. At this point (if anecdotal evidence is correct) the states will have to save us.

I'm not saying I buy anything yet cause they know no more now than they did 24 hours ago, just playing out scenarios.

The United States of America: You Can't Fight Stupid
 
Handyman said:
To pot means both houses and enough governor spots and SOS positions that 2024 doesn't matter. At this point (if anecdotal evidence is correct) the states will have to save us.

I'm not saying I buy anything yet cause they know no more now than they did 24 hours ago, just playing out scenarios.

The United States of America: You Can't Fight Stupid
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I'm hoping that the hidden red wave of 2016 is now blue in 2022. I think that is possible.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
I'm hoping that the hidden red wave of 2016 is now blue in 2022. I think that is possible.
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That’s my hope as well. Not necessarily a wave, but a bulwark that lets us keep the Senate. I think the House is gone regardless. One person, one vote is a lie there.
 
Turnout in my town seems to be extremely high. Lines to park, standing lines around the corner to enter the polls. Guy I know says the polling workers told him it had been like that all morning.

Can 't really be an indicator of much, as my town is probably 50-50 young educated 'woke' folks, and old time rednecky MAGA types. Just that turnout should be high.
 
Just an FYI. Rebuilt my spreadsheet for forecasting and will be providing updates like I did in 2020. Any interest in this? Post in this thread or a dedicated?

I'll be doing the senate races. ANy others people want?
 
rufus said:
Turnout in my town seems to be extremely high. Lines to park, standing lines around the corner to enter the polls. Guy I know says the polling workers told him it had been like that all morning.

Can 't really be an indicator of much, as my town is probably 50-50 young educated 'woke' folks, and old time rednecky MAGA types. Just that turnout should be high.
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I was just about to come here to say Twitter is full of anecdotes of packed polling places, like seems to happen every year. And every year there’s no blue wave in any of the red areas these people report from. The latest one I saw was a lady in Alabama who said it was there was a long line when it’s usually empty for midterms.

Makes me wonder how consistent people are in their time of day voting and if they’re just missing rush hour. The 2020 primary was far more packed than the 2018 mid terms from my experience. But I’m 1000% sure it’s because in 2020 I went in the morning versus after work in 2018.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
Just an FYI. Rebuilt my spreadsheet for forecasting and will be providing updates like I did in 2020. Any interest in this? Post in this thread or a dedicated?

I'll be doing the senate races. ANy others people want?
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Might need it...sounds like Pennsylvania won't know their winners for a few days.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
I was just about to come here to say Twitter is full of anecdotes of packed polling places, like seems to happen every year. And every year there’s no blue wave in any of the red areas these people report from. The latest one I saw was a lady in Alabama who said it was there was a long line when it’s usually empty for midterms.

Makes me wonder how consistent people are in their time of day voting and if they’re just missing rush hour. The 2020 primary was far more packed than the 2018 mid terms from my experience. But I’m 1000% sure it’s because in 2020 I went in the morning versus after work in 2018.
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The problem with anecdotes whether positive or negative is that they leave out all context. You gave a prime example of that.

The more interesting things are the not so normal things that have showed up that are seemingly being ignored by the media and the prognosticators. Like the long lines waiting for early voting in some places. Election Day it is expected there will be lines, but seeing the videos out of some places days ago (some even a week ago) told me more than the current anecdotes. Seeing how early vote totals in some places (actually quite a few) surpassed the 2018 Midterms also tells me more than what the pundits are saying. (we wont get into when they compare it to 2020 to show depressed turnout...cause well gee 2020 had a major factor that caused massive early voting)

None of that says the pundits and pollsters are wrong per se, things might be crashing and burning badly as we speak. But I can 100% tell you that the rhetoric by media types around here changed once the early vote totals started to show an uptick from the last midterm. The non-partisan pollsters I was reading were saying just a couple days ago that for the Dems to hold the House they only really need to overperform by like 2%...that isn't exactly like climbing Mount Kilimanjaro I believe in 2016 and 2020 Trump had to do something similar according to 538 the night before the elections.

I know I harp on the idea that polls are worthless a lot but part of the reason is that there are just some things that even the best polls cannot account for. Lying is a big one and it seems to be prevalent these days. (along with just high levels of non-response) Early voting is another. They also try to ask such broad questions trying to gauge "interest" as much as "who are you going to vote for" almost as if they are asking the questions to the pundits can give vague answers so they are never wrong.
 
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Kepler said:
Sure, Jan.
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Her speech last night was weird. It almost sounded like she expected to lose because she was harping on how it was rigged and they will fight it and blah blah blah. It was the type of speech you expect to hear when internal polling shows you are in trouble. And she wasn't sowing the seeds (she already did that) this seemed different.

Again not saying she is gonna lose, just seems like she thinks she might.
 
I am hearing the term split-ticket over and over again. Who in the fuck votes split ticket nowadays? Democracy is on the ballot. Any vote for any R is a vote against Democracy. Period. Full stop.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
I am hearing the term split-ticket over and over again. Who in the fuck votes split ticket nowadays? Democracy is on the ballot. Any vote for any R is a vote against Democracy. Period. Full stop.
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Yeah that is another sign that tells me the doom and gloom that has been peddled for the past few weeks is a bit overdone. That is a full on hedge.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
I am hearing the term split-ticket over and over again. Who in the fuck votes split ticket nowadays? Democracy is on the ballot. Any vote for any R is a vote against Democracy. Period. Full stop.
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Many people in a state with a legislature heavily tilted one way or another often will vote for the other party for Governor as a check and balance. (Use Massachusetts and a line of Republican governors as an example).
 
ericredaxe said:
Many people in a state with a legislature heavily tilted one way or another often will vote for the other party for Governor as a check and balance. (Use Massachusetts and a line of Republican governors as an example).
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Yeah, I get that. And when Republicans pretended to give a shit about Democracy that was fine. It's not fine in 2022.
 
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