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2022 MidTerms & State races- who ya got?

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Per 538 (settle down), the likelihood of the GOP taking the House (73%) has now nearly dropped below the likelihood of the Dems holding the Senate (69%, nice).

Note that in June the GOP's House chance was 86% while the Dems Senate chance was 40%.

It's still a long way to go for the Dems to hold the House, but hopefully Lindsay just helped.

Another way to put this, since June the House popular vote has dropped by R+6.4 to R+2.9, and the prediction for seats controlled has dropped from 234-101 to 227-208. Due to aggressive Republican gerrymandering, they would still take the House if the popular vote was between even and D+2ish.
 
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Kepler said:
Per 538 (settle down), the likelihood of the GOP taking the House (73%) has now nearly dropped below the likelihood of the Dems holding the Senate (69%, nice).

Note that in June the GOP's House chance was 86% while the Dems Senate chance was 40%.

It's still a long way to go for the Dems to hold the House, but hopefully Lindsay just helped.

Another way to put this, since June the House popular vote has dropped by R+6.4 to R+2.9, and the prediction for seats controlled has dropped from 234-101 to 227-208. Due to aggressive Republican gerrymandering, they would still take the House if the popular vote was between even and D+2ish.
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That's using the deluxe method, which I still find problematic. The polls-only method is down to 39-61 in the house (224-211 - with it basically being a dead even split as the median case) and 81-19 in the senate (median 54, estimated 52).

Polls-only senate shows a 1% chance of having >60 seats. 72% chance of gaining seats.
 
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It appears election-denier Don Bolduc is going to pull it out versus Sununu-backed Chuck Morse in NH. One has to think that significantly improves Hassan’s chances, even in a state as dominated at the state-level by the GOP as New Hampshire is currently.
 
psych said:
It appears election-denier Don Bolduc is going to pull it out versus Sununu-backed Chuck Morse in NH. One has to think that significantly improves Hassan’s chances, even in a state as dominated at the state-level by the GOP as New Hampshire is currently.
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He is now saying the election wasn't stolen...
 
rufus said:
Tacking to the center for the general.

Too bad it ain't gonna work.
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Hopefully he loses nutbar votes for insufficient purity while not picking up any other voters because we all know he is lying.

We need to put EVERY GOP candidate in that box, regardless of office. Make every single one choose whether to publicly pledge full allegiance to Emperor Dump and the big lie.
 
Hassan made sure to have his primary comments and the letter he signed ready to go the second he "evolved" on the issue.
 
I've gotten tv attack ads against Hassan all day long from ESPN and USA, among others. Stupid and I hope a waste of money.
 
Saw Fetterman on Alex Wagner tonight. I'd vote for him. He seems fine to me. The stroke obviously changed him but I think it's a net positive for him as a candidate. I'm sorry it happened to him and wouldn't wish it on anyone but he's clearly very thoughtful about what happened to him and he stated it's made him even more empathetic. Not a bad trait to have nowadays.
 
ScoobyDoo said:
I'm sorry it happened to him and wouldn't wish it on anyone but he's clearly very thoughtful about what happened to him and he stated it's made him even more empathetic. Not a bad trait to have nowadays.
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Empathy is weakness and weakness is a bad trait according to about 40% of the electorate. Stupid people want to have the strong-man do all their thinking and go out and kick some a ss.

It is literally trump's only appeal to them because all they see or hear is the threats and faux tough talk. In fact 90% of trump's base is too stupid to realize their orange god is really a wuss and a scared little child. I will never forget the look in his eyes in Ohio when he was running in 2016 and some nutjob ran towards the stage. He didn't get within 50 feet of trump (even cops don't get a hard-on until you cross the magic 21 foot barrier) and the look of terror on trump's face was priceless. If he wasn't wearing a dark suit the pee stain would have been readily evident.
 
Spartanforlife4 said:
Nate Silver with an interesting article on why the polls favoring the Dems may actually be closer to what happens, like in 18, than they were showing in 16 and 20.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-the-polls-overestimate-democrats-again/

Of course, then he goes and follows it up with the most neutral, both sides, “idk, maybe they’ll be wrong again” tweet.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1570741851896033283?s=46&t=2ul2rlB4w4lckyDjw_DeVQ
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The polls weren't wrong in 2016. The polls were very close. The problem was we have a winner-take-all system where a single vote can change an entire state's electoral votes. 40,000 votes swung the entire 2016 election. The pundits didn't account for that very well, which is why the deluxe and classic models were so far off but the polls (lite) was well within the margin for error.
 
dxmnkd316 said:
The polls weren't wrong in 2016. The polls were very close. The problem was we have a winner-take-all system where a single vote can change an entire state's electoral votes. 40,000 votes swung the entire 2016 election. The pundits didn't account for that very well, which is why the deluxe and classic models were so far off but the polls (lite) was well within the margin for error.
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Thank you.

Silver: Trump has a 30% chance of winning.

< Trump wins >

Morons: LOL538!!!

Silver: God you people are stupid.
 
Kepler said:
Thank you.

Silver: Trump has a 30% chance of winning.

< Trump wins >

Morons: LOL538!!!

Silver: God you people are stupid.
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Silver's no saint in this. He was the least wrong of the pundits and his agglomeration of polling is good. He should have left it at that and stayed off Maher and the other talk shows. If he ditched the stupid deluxe and classic models it would be better. It's no different than massaging the data. Just let the GD data speak for itself.

Lite should be: Unadulterated Data
Classic should be renamed: Moderate fuckery - Pollster grades, size of polls, LV vs. RV, basic stuff.
Deluxe should be called: "Here's what I think the data should look like"

There was a great tweet i saw the other day:
whether you should trust the lite, classic, or deluxe 538 model:
if you believe that there are variables not present in other elections, lite;
if you believe that this is roughly the same election as 2014, classic;
if you believe that the punditry to date has been good, deluxe
Click to expand...

It's perfect.
 
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