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Covfefe-19 The 12th Part: The Only Thing Worse Than This New Board Is TrumpVirus2020

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Yeah so far no evidence it’s competing with delta yet. One state sequenced every positive test from last six weeks and found zero cases of omicron
 
ericredaxe said:
Gee - so not only are you less likely to contract COVID if you are vaccinated, but if you do catch it, you are less likely to give it to someone else. Who would have ever imagined that? :rolleyes:

https://www.boston.com/news/coronavi...p_featurestack
Click to expand...

Cool now do people that have recovered from Covid. Which was the topic in question yesterday.

Also, right from the study.

“We also found no meaningful difference in the mean peak viral load or proliferation duration between vaccinated and unvaccinated participants (Figure 1D and 1E, Table S2, and Fig. S2).”


Wasnt your reasoning because unvaccinated Covid recovered people could have an asymptomatic infection and the viral load would be higher than a vaccinated person, viral spread, community, ect.

Talk about making a bunch of bullsh*t up to for your new religion. Covidian.
 
There's this doctor I follow on Facebook who works at Mass General - her weekly posts have literally kept me sane since this all started. She just posted this on the Minnesota guy who has the Omicorn variant:

The Minnesota guy who now has been found to have the Omicron variant went to an anime convention in NYC where they played fast and loose with the science.
The said they required "proof of vaccination" to attend, but in fact they only required one shot (which doesn't give nearly the protection of two shots) and even more unbelievably they let you walk in if you got a shot at the door (which would give you no protection at all).
This poor guy got sick the day after he was at the convention so he was contagious the last day he attended. Hopefully they'll be able to call all the people who got the shot at the door or walked in with only one vaccine and see if any of them also got sick.
Omicron was going to come here sooner or later. We get to choose how it spreads with our behavior. Maybe we can learn from this convention.
You just can't play games with science like this. Facts is facts. You can't negotiate with a virus. Biology wins.
Click to expand...

It's the Biogen conference all over again.
 
Great meme I saw today. Since I can't get images to work I will quote it.

"Santa has been reading your posts all year. Most of you are getting Science books."
 
Jeebus, it might have been Florida

Edit: Nope. According to the CDC, no one has hit 100% for either of the two weeks ending 11/13 or 11/20 unless it was just done this week.
I'm wondering if they didn't look at the PCR results they had on hand to see the "second peak" or whatever it is that comes up on the PCR test that Delta doesn't have but Omicron does. Either way, I question his comment.
 
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Good (well, at least informative) thread on Omicron.

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...500653568?s=20

Some key bullets:
If this is a more infectious variant only (no immune escape), the R0 would be impossibly high.
If it was slightly less infectious, it would need to be total immune escape (unlikely).
Most likely, 30% more contagious than Delta and 5x more immune escape.

Summed up:
Roughly speaking, I think that could correspond to people just having received a booster being only still being as well protected as if they received their last dose 6 months ago. Getting a booster asap will become all the more important!
Click to expand...

There are a lot of nuances though. THe data from South Africa is difficult to interpret since only about 25% of people are vaccinated but it's also likely that nearly everyone in SA was exposed.

This graph scared the hell out of me. It's the effective R number. If Re>1, it's spreading. If Re<1, it's not. NOrmally we sound the alarms at Re at like 1.4. Minnesota hasn't been above 1.4 since April 2020. This is SA as a whole and it's nearing 2.9. That's insanely high.

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In the Gauteng Province, it's nearly 3.5.

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This isn't ideal either:

FFnyuSUXEAManio


Edit:
Oh boy. This is the uppercut coming for trumpers it didn't kill. SOunds like the data for previous infections (even those with MULTIPLE prior infections and delta) it has a decent amount of immune evasion. More than Delta.
https://twitter.com/SACEMAdirector/s...673159685?s=20

19931c_941224f8cd9e49e2837fce5457c9069e~mv2.gif
 
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dxmnkd316 said:
Good (well, at least informative) thread on Omicron.

https://twitter.com/TWenseleers/stat...500653568?s=20

Some key bullets:
If this is a more infectious variant only (no immune escape), the R0 would be impossibly high.
If it was slightly less infectious, it would need to be total immune escape (unlikely).
Most likely, 30% more contagious than Delta and 5x more immune escape.

Summed up:


There are a lot of nuances though. THe data from South Africa is difficult to interpret since only about 25% of people are vaccinated but it's also likely that nearly everyone in SA was exposed.

This graph scared the hell out of me. It's the effective R number. If Re>1, it's spreading. If Re<1, it's not. NOrmally we sound the alarms at Re at like 1.4. Minnesota hasn't been above 1.4 since April 2020. This is SA as a whole and it's nearing 2.9. That's insanely high.

FFoNcYTXoAE5P0d
wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
??????¢??

In the Gauteng Province, it's nearly 3.5.

FFoMPevXMBAJgxi
wAAACH5BAEKAAAALAAAAAABAAEAAAICRAEAOw==
??????¢??




This isn't ideal either:

FFnyuSUXEAManio


Edit:
Oh boy. This is the uppercut coming for trumpers it didn't kill. SOunds like the data for previous infections (even those with MULTIPLE prior infections and delta) it has a decent amount of immune evasion. More than Delta.
https://twitter.com/SACEMAdirector/s...673159685?s=20

19931c_941224f8cd9e49e2837fce5457c9069e~mv2.gif
Click to expand...

I read through that thread and understood maybe 10% of it…sounds like the unvaccinated are, um, fucked.
 
Almost right after I posted that last update, it hit me. Malaise, fatigue, loss of appetite, and generally feeling like a cold is coming on. Had to fight through an afternoon's worth of long-arse meetings.
 
I had to read it three our four times to digest most of what I did. But I think your guess is right. But I think we're all in trouble.

Imagine the public is a fire. With wild type covid, that fire was made of charcoal briquettes. You started it by lighting a single briquette and let others catch from it. It takes a while but it will light. You can also slow it down pretty effectively by isolating individual briquettes as they catch fire. You won't stop it, but you can slow it down.

With omicron, it seems like it's going to be closer to a pile of dry leaves. Once it hits you can't slow the spread. So hospitals are going to be flooded. Which is bad for those who get it. But it's also bad for everyone and worse than any of the previous waves. Delta hit in late summer. Which is good to help slow it down for a lot of northern states. The problem is, omicron hit the day after thanksgiving. And it's already everywhere, we just weren't looking.

The next two months could be ugly for all of us. Then again, maybe not. I think it hinges on how much this evades vaccine immunity and whether the severity in the vaccinated is affected. I'm guessing recently boosted should be at least ok, maybe great. Because our bodies are still flooded with soldier antibodies. Even if only half have guns, the flood of those that do work will be better than nothing.
 
I am not as dire yet on this. I need to see more data to make me panic.
 
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