ericredaxe
Veteran
More big news in GA. Biden's path switched from needing to overperform to win to needing to underperform to lose.
Where do you see this?
More big news in GA. Biden's path switched from needing to overperform to win to needing to underperform to lose.
Where do you see this?
Do not sleep on Biden's chance to win NC just yet.... It's wide but the numbers aren't entirely insane.
How many votes are outstanding still?
"Swing" is the % of the outstanding votes needed to result in a win. "Share" is the actual % of votes accumulated in that batch that was added to the total. "Margin" is the actual number of votes Biden is trailing by. "Remain" is the number of votes that still need to be counted.
GA for biden (haven't back calc'd everything yet like the other races)
[TABLE="width: 334"]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Swing[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"]Share[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Margin[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"]Remain[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]10:00 AM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.80%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]12:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.69%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]1:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.82%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]1:28 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.81%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]1:41 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.74%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]1:44 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.85%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]2:20 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.83%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]2:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.19%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]2:52 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.06%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]3:28 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]3:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]7.05%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[TD="class: xl66"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]3:48 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.58%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]23.29%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]67,948[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]291,688[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]3:58 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.48%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]23.42%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]68,315[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]291,688[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]4:22 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]4.43%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]23.44%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]68,363[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]291,688[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5:00 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]2.11%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]20.75%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]57,397[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]276,658[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]5:23 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]2.07%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]20.70%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]57,266[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]276,680[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6:03 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]-1.68%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]18.45%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]56,739[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]307,585[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]6:30 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]-2.54%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]16.46%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]47,827[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]290,619[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]7:23 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]-2.54%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]15.98%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]45,991[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]287,797[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: xl67, align: right"]7:48 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]-3.90%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl65, align: right"]14.57%[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]39,811[/TD]
[TD="class: xl66, align: right"]273,296[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
-3.9%!!!
Swing is basically how much a candidate will need to overperform (or underperform if negative) relative to the current spread for all districts individually.
Share is really poorly named. It should be "Win by Pts". The candidate would need to win by this many points. A Share of 30 means you would need a 65-35 split on the remaining votes.
Margin and remain are right.
Hope this helps.
I want axelrod and van Jones to just pummel Santorum on screen
A simple explanation for Trump voters on what is happening...
https://twitter.com/CoreyRForrester/status/1324165448762576905