Grand unified 2020 election thread

[Kepler]

I hope the lesson everybody draws is process and count early votes the instant they are received. Just don't report the results.

Assuming the cynical lawsuits the cons file fail, they no longer have a reason to sabotage the count anyway so they might as well give the poll workers, and our nerves, a break.

Think of how different this goes if in every state, the instant polls close, all early votes have been counted. Then the only issue will be late arriving (but legally post-marked) ballots, and there is nothing we can do about that unless we want to say all ballots must be received by poll close. I don't actually have a problem with that as long as all states have a month of early voting, but I'll be OCONUS military will.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

There is no such thing as a persistent "national culture." It is only the people, and the American people have changed significantly. We still have a lot of apes, obviously, but we become more human every day.

If all we needed was 50% plus one, this would be a legitimate take. Look what a minority of Americans has done to this country. The United States will cease to exist long before your evolution of humanity will have made a real difference.

When people came on here to wonder if we had a good night in 2018 I pushed back on them and said yes, no matter how you slice it we had a TREMENDOUS election then. This one has been a disaster, survivable only if the states where Biden holds a lead actually pan out. Any other take is as misguided as mine was that Biden might actually win 350+ EC votes.

 

[Kepler]

But I'm reading there are still 3 million votes yet to count, mostly from urban areas.

Apparently there is a huge results dump coming from Philly in the next few hours. It should close the gap significantly.

The sites seem to be in agreement that Biden will eventually take PA. They just don't want to promise because the second they make a prediction they can only be smeared.

 

[dxmnkd316]

NPR reporting the single EC vote in Maine is still too close to call. What gives there? Without that, Biden does not win even with MI, WI and NV does he? Wouldn't that be the dreaded 269 tie?

Assuming MI = Biden
Biden:
PA+(GA, NC, AZ, or WI)
PA+NV+ME2
GA+(NC or AZ)
GA+WI+(NV or ME2)
NC+AZ+(WI or NV or ME2)
WI+NV+(NC or AZ)

Trump:
GA+NC+AZ+WI+NV
PA+GA+NC+(AZ, WI, or NV)
PA+GA+AZ+WI
PA+NC+AZ+WI
PA+GA+AZ+NV+ME2

Tie:
1.
B=PA+NV
T=GA+NC+AZ+WI+ME2

2.
B=GA+WI
T=PA+NC+AZ+NV+ME2

3.
B=NC+AZ+ME2
T=PA+GA+WI+NV+ME2

4.
B=NC+WI+ME2
T=PA+GA+AZ+NV

 

[ScoobyDoo]

The lesson won't matter. Cause any fix that is proposed will be blocked by Turtle Boy. We get to do this again next cycle.

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Think of how different this goes if in every state, the instant polls close, all early votes have been counted. Then the only issue will be late arriving (but legally post-marked) ballots, and there is nothing we can do about that unless we want to say all ballots must be received by poll close. I don't actually have a problem with that as long as all states have a month of early voting, but I'll be OCONUS military will.

I heard something very interesting yesterday.

There is actually a federal law, which both sides agreed to, that all overseas military ballots must be counted if they are received after election day (I think it's five days) no matter what the respective state law says. This surprised me, because so many people, including reputable analysts, keep bemoaning how the military personnel voice might not be heard.

 

[Kepler]

Assuming MI = Biden
Biden:
PA+(GA, NC, AZ, or WI)
PA+NV+ME2
GA+(NC or AZ)
GA+WI+NV
GA+WI+ME2
NC+AZ+(WI or NV or ME2)
NC+WI+NV
AZ+WI+NV

Trump:
PA+GA+NC+(AZ, WI, or NV)
PA+GA+AZ+WI
PA+NC+AZ+WI
PA+GA+AZ+NV+ME2

AZ is Biden.

GA is very likely Biden.

And that's not even considering that NV is likely Biden and WI may be.

I'm pretty sure this is over, assuming the constituency of the uncounted ballots is what the prediction is.

 

[Kepler]

Tie:

Shut your whore mouth.

 

[WeAreNDHockey]

But I'm reading there are still 3 million votes yet to count, mostly from urban areas.

No way are there 3 million uncounted votes. In 2016 Clinton and trump combined for a little under 5.9 million votes. Almost that many have already been counted and there is no way the state saw a 60% increase in voting. No way. If they increased 30% that would mean another 1.5 million votes to count and Biden would need over 2/3rds to secure a win. Ohio appears to have had about 9% more people vote for Biden and trump than voted for Clinton and trump in 2016. PA is lost.

 

[dxmnkd316]

The sites seem to be in agreement that Biden will eventually take PA

Which ones?

 

[dxmnkd316]

Shut your whore mouth.

Tie = Biden...I think

 

[Russell Jaslow]

Tie = Biden...I think

That's not how it works. Yes, the House decides, but not in a straight vote. Each state gets ONE vote. So, you have to figure out which states individually are controlled by D vs. R representatives, and then do the vote math.

The Senate votes on the vice president. So, theoretically, you could have different parties on the winning ticket...

And, it's the newly elected Congress which holds these votes, not the lame duck congress.

 

[ScoobyDoo]

Looks like Dems in Minnesota kept the State House and Senate by narrow margins despite having one House seat flipped. We have 8? Federal House seats and it will be 4-4. There's no way these rural districts will ever go D again. Keeping it 4-4 assuming the census is about as good as we can hope. It's also why the State Houses are so close.

 

[BassAle]

No way are there 3 million uncounted votes. In 2016 Clinton and trump combined for a little under 5.9 million votes. Almost that many have already been counted and there is no way the state saw a 60% increase in voting. No way. If they increased 30% that would mean another 1.5 million votes to count and Biden would need over 2/3rds to secure a win. Ohio appears to have had about 9% more people vote for Biden and trump than voted for Clinton and trump in 2016. PA is lost.

PA had something like 1.4 million mail in ballots left to count when Trump was up by just under 700k. Biden was winning 77% of the mail in ballots. If that margin holds, he makes up his deficit. That means he'd get roughly 1,078,000 out of that 1.4 million. If Trump got all of the remainder it would be 322,000. Biden nets ~750K and would need just under 700K to win.

 

[Kepler]

Tie = Biden...I think

Nope. One vote per state where each state's Reps are one caucus. GOP wins 26-24 because WY counts the same as CA.

 

[dxmnkd316]

AZ is Biden.

GA is very likely Biden.

And that's not even considering that NV is likely Biden and WI may be.

I'm pretty sure this is over, assuming the constituency of the uncounted ballots is what the prediction is.

We don't know either of those yet. Not with 86% in AZ. GA seems... optimistic at best.

WI i don't know what to make of it because their results pages are run by the fucking cities and counties. There isn't a statewide reporting system. Figures.

 

[Kepler]

Which ones?

538
NYT
WaPo
BBC
The voices in my head

 

[dxmnkd316]

Looks like Dems in Minnesota kept the State House and Senate by narrow margins despite having one House seat flipped. We have 8? Federal House seats and it will be 4-4. There's no way these rural districts will ever go D again. Keeping it 4-4 assuming the census is about as good as we can hope. It's also why the State Houses are so close.

What are you smoking?

We lost the senate.


Oh you meant US House, not State

 

[BassAle]

NPR reporting the single EC vote in Maine is still too close to call. What gives there?

Like the rest of rural America, ME-2 is lost. It swung wildly from Obama to Trump in '16. incumbent advantage + cult factor appears to be too much to overcome.

(my small ME-2 town did our part though, we voted 2,678 Biden to 804 Trump)

 

[dxmnkd316]

538
NYT
WaPo
BBC
The voices in my head

I don't really see any forecasting on those sites.