Disclaimer: This is not based on actual numbers but is based on a highly reasonable understanding of PWR.
BC is a lock because if they win even just a game or two they will fall to no lower than a #2 seed and have the upperhand for a #1 if they win all if not most and if they lose to UMass in two it will raise UMass' standing enough to keep them at a #2 as well probably.
UNH may or may not be a lock but would most likely be a #4 should they get swept. Should they win a few games they are in without winning the Hockey East tournament.
UMass and Vermont have the best possibilities to make it without winning Hockey East. Both are fairly high in PWR and are playing top teams next week in BC and UNH. Should they sweep and win a semifinal they both should probably make it without winning Hockey East.
The UMass-Lowell and Maine winner has an outside possibility of making it should they go on the the finals. Should both Vermont and UMass lose next weekend that possibility becomes a probability.
The rest will need to win Hockey East.
BC is a lock because if they win even just a game or two they will fall to no lower than a #2 seed and have the upperhand for a #1 if they win all if not most and if they lose to UMass in two it will raise UMass' standing enough to keep them at a #2 as well probably.
UNH may or may not be a lock but would most likely be a #4 should they get swept. Should they win a few games they are in without winning the Hockey East tournament.
UMass and Vermont have the best possibilities to make it without winning Hockey East. Both are fairly high in PWR and are playing top teams next week in BC and UNH. Should they sweep and win a semifinal they both should probably make it without winning Hockey East.
The UMass-Lowell and Maine winner has an outside possibility of making it should they go on the the finals. Should both Vermont and UMass lose next weekend that possibility becomes a probability.
The rest will need to win Hockey East.