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Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

L

LakersFan

Registered User
Sorry for the delay in starting these, but I have been out of internet range for the last two+ weeks (long bicycling trip). However, my D3 rankings are up and running now, and here are the results for the week ending November 4, 2012

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Norwich 	2.2935 	
2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2125 
3 	Elmira 	        2.1690 
4 	Wis-River F. 	1.8212 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.7824 
6 	Gustavus Adol.	1.7697 	
7 	Amherst 	1.7383 	
8 	Holy Cross 	0.9799 	
9 	Saint Anselm 	0.8247 	
10 	Salve Regina 	0.7869

The list of all the teams can be found here: http://math.bd.psu.edu/faculty/rutter/D3_Rankings.html

For a detailed, mathematical explination of the model, there are slides of a talk I gave at the web page. There is also an article I had published in Chance magazine that contains good information, if you would be interested in that.

Q: Why is Norwich number 1 when they they have two ties?
A: They tied Plattsburgh and Elmira, so that just brings those teams closer together in rating. They are not number 1 by much, but this early in the season, last season's rating still has a lot of influence. At the end of last season, Norwich was rated higher than Platsburgh and Elmira, so until one of those teams loses or beats another highly rated team, that will likely stay the ranking.

Q: Why are Saint Michael's, Holy Cross, and Saint Anselm in the rankings? They are not D3 teams.
A: But they play a D3 schedules. So while they will never make the NCAA D3 tourney, I think it is important to see how results against those teams effect the rankings. If this really troubles you, I can send you the code and you can run the ratings without those teams.

Q: There is no way team X should be ranked so high/low. Don't you follow D3 hockey?
A: No, not very much. With all the new teams in D3 this year, it is possible that I am assigning wins and losses to the wrong teams. If you think I may be making a mistake, please let me know.
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through November 11, 2012

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Norwich 	2.3662 
2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2805 	
3 	Elmira 	        2.2788 
4 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.1245 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.7801 	
6 	Amherst 	1.7466 	
7 	Wis-River F. 	1.2935 	
8 	St. Thomas 	0.9185 	
9 	Holy Cross 	0.8739 	
10 	Saint Anselm 	0.8376
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

LakersFan...just wanted to say thank you for the Computer Rankings, it's greatly appreciated and I imagine it takes some time and energy to put this together. Thanks again!
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through November 18, 2012

Code: 
	Team		Rating
1 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.3902 	
2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2930 	
3 	Elmira 	        2.2892 	
4 	Norwich 	1.9971 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.9492 	
6 	Saint Anselm 	1.4107 
7 	Manhattanville 	1.3319 
8 	Amherst 	1.1366 
9 	Holy Cross 	0.8920 	
10 	Wis-River F. 	0.8593

Congrats to GA for being the new number 1.
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

LakersFan said:
For games played through November 18, 2012

Code: 
	Team		Rating
1 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.3902 	
2 	Plattsburgh 	2.2930 	
3 	Elmira 	        2.2892 	
4 	Norwich 	1.9971 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.9492 	
6 	Saint Anselm 	1.4107 
7 	Manhattanville 	1.3319 
8 	Amherst 	1.1366 
9 	Holy Cross 	0.8920 	
10 	Wis-River F. 	0.8593

Congrats to GA for being the new number 1.
Click to expand...

Out of curiosity what's that significance of the 2.39 vs 2.29 are they essentially equal when its only a .1 difference? Obviously the 2.29 vs 2.28 of Platt/elmira is essentialy equal...but is .1 a big difference or is it small?
 
Last edited:
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

gojackets said:
Out of curiosity what's that significance of the 2.39 vs 2.29 are they essentially equal when its only a .1 difference? Obviously the 2.29 vs 2.28 of Platt/elmira is essentialy equal...but is .1 a big difference or is it small?
Click to expand...

From a probability standpoint, a team with a rating of .1 higher than its opponent would win 54% of the time (threfore losing 46% of the time). This assumes a tie is not possible, like in a playoff game. I would say that is not much of a difference.
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through November 25, 2012

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.6616 
2 	Gustavus Ad. 	2.3928 	
3 	Middlebury 	2.2466 
4 	Elmira 	        2.0869 
5 	Norwich 	1.9982 	
6 	Saint Anselm 	1.3652 	
7 	Manhattanville 	1.3095 	
8 	Trinity 	1.0356 	
9 	Wis-River Falls 0.9601 	
10 	Amherst 	0.8294
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through December 2, 2012

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.6727 
2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.4405 	
3 	Elmira 	        2.1094 	
4 	Middlebury 	2.0564 	
5 	Norwich 	2.0305 	
6 	Manhattanville 	1.2877 	
7 	Trinity 	1.1931 
8 	Bowdoin 	1.1826 
9 	Saint Anselm 	1.1393 	
10 	Amherst 	1.0608
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through December 9, 2012

Code: 
  	Team 		Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.7198 	
2 	Gustavus Adol.	2.5060 
3 	Elmira 		2.0371 
4 	Middlebury 	1.9999 	
5 	Norwich 	1.9355 	
6 	Bowdoin 	1.6108 	
7 	Manhattanville 	1.1952 	
8 	Amherst 	1.0070 	
9 	Wis-River Falls 0.9277 	
10 	Saint Anselm 	0.9022
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For game played through December 16, 2012

Code: 
  	Team 		Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.7235 	
2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.6675 
3 	Elmira 		2.0382 	
4 	Middlebury 	2.0017 	
5 	Norwich 	1.9404 
6 	Bowdoin 	1.6164 	
7 	Manhattanville 	1.1953 	
8 	Amherst 	1.0072 	
9 	Saint Anselm 	0.9062 	
10 	Hamilton 	0.8816
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through January 6, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 		Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.8281 	
2 	Gustavus Adolp. 2.6670 	
3 	Elmira 		2.2184 	
4 	Middlebury 	1.9905 	
5 	Norwich 	1.9174 
6 	Bowdoin 	1.8235 	
7 	Amherst 	1.2015 	
8 	Hamilton 	0.8815 	
9 	Wis-River Falls 0.8705
10 	Saint Anselm 	0.8704
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through January 13, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.8472 	
2 	Gustavus Adolp. 2.6106 	
3 	Elmira 	        2.1957 	
4 	Norwich 	1.9335 	
5 	Bowdoin 	1.9085 
6 	Middlebury 	1.8777 	
7 	Amherst 	1.2086 	
8 	Hamilton 	1.0369 
9 	Wis-River Falls 0.9398 	
10 	Adrian 	        0.9389
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through January 2, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 		Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.9988 
2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.6577 	
3 	Elmira 		2.0956
4 	Norwich 	2.0494 	
5 	Bowdoin 	1.9313 
6 	Middlebury 	1.9021 	
7 	Amherst 	1.1300 	
8 	Wis-River Falls 1.0042 	
9 	Manhattanville 	0.8691 	
10 	Hamilton 	0.8142
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through January 27, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	3.0432 	
2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.7131 	
3 	Norwich 	2.0161 
4 	Elmira 		2.0093 
5 	Middlebury 	1.9634 	
6 	Bowdoin 	1.7480 	
7 	Amherst 	1.0408 	
8 	Wis-River Falls 0.9927 	
9 	Hamilton 	0.7940 	
10 	Manhattanville 	0.7298
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through February 3, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.6970 	
2 	Plattsburgh 	2.6413 
3 	Elmira 	        1.9462 	
4 	Norwich 	1.9028 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.7204 	
6 	Bowdoin 	1.3984 	
7 	Amherst 	1.1460 	
8 	Wis-River Falls 0.9776 	
9 	Trinity 	0.9358 	
10 	Manhattanville 	0.8243
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

Ha..this is a joke, right?

LakersFan said:
For games played through February 3, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 	Rating 	
1 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.6970 	
2 	Plattsburgh 	2.6413 
3 	Elmira 	        1.9462 	
4 	Norwich 	1.9028 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.7204 	
6 	Bowdoin 	1.3984 	
7 	Amherst 	1.1460 	
8 	Wis-River Falls 0.9776 	
9 	Trinity 	0.9358 	
10 	Manhattanville 	0.8243
Click to expand...
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For games played through Feb. 10, 2013

Code: 
Rank	Team		Rating
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.6325 
2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.2525 	
3 	Norwich 	1.9914 	
4 	Elmira 		1.9572 	
5 	Middlebury 	1.5848 	
6 	Bowdoin 	1.4634 	
7 	Amherst 	1.1136 	
8 	Wis-River Falls 1.0817 
9 	Manhattanville 	0.9230 	
10 	Trinity 	0.8452
 
Re: Rutter Division III 2012-2013 Computer Rankings

For Games played trough Feb 17th, 2013

Code: 
  	Team 		Rating 	
1 	Plattsburgh 	2.5895 
2 	Gustavus Adol. 	2.2675 	
3 	Norwich 	1.8489 
4 	Elmira 		1.7826 
5 	Middlebury 	1.6037 
6 	Bowdoin 	1.5703 	
7 	Wis-River Falls 1.0651 
8 	Amherst 	1.0625 	
9 	Trinity 	0.8480 
10 	Manhattanville 	0.8462
 
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