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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Republicans will masturbate to this.

The Russian “Voin” military-patriotic training center network has taken “patronage” over orphans from occupied Donetsk Oblast and intends to train these orphans for service in the Russian armed forces. Occupied Donetsk Oblast-based Russian outlet Donetsk News Agency reported on May 14, citing occupied Donetsk Oblast “Voin” branch director Alexander Kamyshov, that “Voin” has “taken patronage” over orphans from the Children’s Social Center and Amvrosiivska Boarding School No. 4. “Voin” patronage over the two orphanages means that “Voin” organizes events for the children, including training sessions in drone operation, tactical medicine, and basic military affairs. Russian combat veterans will train and instruct the children. ISW previously assessed that “Voin” is a critical component of Russia’s wider campaign to indoctrinate and militarize Ukrainian children to prepare them for eventual service in the Russian military.
 
Sounds like the Ukraine has figured out a way to get deep into Russia with drones. Blew up lots of planes. Putin can't be to happy about that.
 
Eighteen months of planning went into this effort. Drones were packed in a false ceiling of trucking shipping containers. Containers used were high-cube containers which masked the false ceiling. Containers were moved through the country as actual cargo containers shuttled by unwitting truck drivers. Containers were also rigged to explode after the launch.

Money, time, and resources will be committed by Russia to inspect trucks and containers, especially those close to military bases and other sensitive areas throughout Russia.

Meanwhile, Ukraine will move forward with another out-of-the-box mission while Russia is distracted.
 
I would assume as this operation was taking shape Ukraine made the wise move of no longer informing the U.S. of its war plans.
That's what I gathered from social media posts yesterday. Unsure if Ukraine outright admitted as such.

Here's the kicker, eighteen months of planning means that either Biden era intelligence was *also* left in the dark, or those who knew never passed that information forward knowing it could be compromised.

Russia being in the dark on Ukraine operations, and Ukraine successfully on the offense since Zelensky's US visit, exposes to the world the proof that the US was a leak to Putin.

Also, with the very public release of data and video from the attacks puts Russia behind the eight ball. The FSB will face internal fighting to figure out how this happened and got by every one, while publicly facing the above efforts to ensure this was a one off situation. Simultaneously, Russia will have a hard time trying to cover up their inadequacies.
 
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That's what I gathered from social media posts yesterday. Unsure if Ukraine outright admitted as such.

Here's the kicker, eighteen months of planning means that either Biden era intelligence was *also* left in the dark, or those who knew never passed that information forward knowing it could be compromised.

Russia being in the dark on Ukraine operations, and Ukraine successfully on the offense since Zelensky's US visit, exposes to the world the proof that the US was a leak to Putin.

Also, with the very public release of data and video from the attacks puts Russia behind the eight ball. The FSB will face internal fighting to figure out how this happened and got by every one, while publicly facing the above efforts to ensure this was a one off situation. Simultaneously, Russia will have a hard time trying to cover up their inadequacies.
My guess is none of their allies would have known about it. Something like this you want as few people to know about it as possible to prevent any sort of leaks. Best way to keep a secret...
 
Sounds like the Ukraine has figured out a way to get deep into Russia with drones. Blew up lots of planes. Putin can't be to happy about that.
and think of all those Chinese containers rolling straight outta Long Beach 😳🙀

Big contracts to be signed there inspecting them 😝
Maybe Jared already bid and won 👍🏾💁🏾
 
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Does anyone have a rational explanation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine yet? All I can come up with is Putin is insane.
Ekaterina Shulmann has made the argument it is as much if not more about internal politics as about external geopolitical politics.
I won't go into her entire thought process, but if you arent familiar with her I highly recommend checking her out.
 
Does anyone have a rational explanation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine yet? All I can come up with is Putin is insane.
Optics. He had to fly the flag and wag the dog to take the focus off the fact that they've been slipping back into the 90s economically.

To be fair, he's an ex-KGB megalomaniac who's part of Russian Boomer culture. They have built up a strawman in their heads that Glorious Moscow's territory and sphere of influence were "stolen" by the West and NATO at the end of the Cold War. So he's always wanted to reassemble at least part of the USSR and her satellites, and he isn't getting any younger.

However, first and foremost, the sanctions and relatively low oil prices have put the skull screws on their economy and the value of the ruble. IIRC, the way Vladdy and the oligarchs run things, oil needs to be at least $100+ barrel (ideally more like $130+) to generate enough export revenue to properly fund their government. Things are not improving on that front, as oil prices have mostly dropped since early April (and haven't consistently averaged over $100/bbl since 2014). He also made some very unpopular changes to Russia's "constitution" (if you can call it that) a handful years ago that gutted state pensions, amongst other austerity measures.

So all that said, invading Ukraine is a way for him to keep the citizenry distracted from the screw job they've gotten at the hands of their plutes, and also to try and fuel an ailing economy by ramping up domestic manufacturing for the war machine. If the war ends now in anything less than victory, they likely enter a post-war depression that might finally get him defenstrated for once.
 
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