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Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Lukashenko goes off script.

TLDW: Lukashenko changed his tune from "Russia will inevitably defeat Ukraine" to "this is an intractable stalemate and there must be a ceasefire." This is because the war has changed from a stalemate to Ukraine pushing Russia back.

Theories:

1) Lukashenko is a stalking horse for Russia papering over defeat without having to admit it.
2) Lukashenko is sending signals that the war is a disaster over the heads of Putin's yes men.
3) Lukashenko sees the light of the oncoming train and is flailing to find an exit ramp.
4) Lukashenko is getting pressure from Belarus forces below him and is trying to stay in power.

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Kepler said:
Lukashenko goes off script.

TLDW: Lukashenko changed his tune from "Russia will inevitably defeat Ukraine" to "this is an intractable stalemate and there must be a ceasefire." This is because the war has changed from a stalemate to Ukraine pushing Russia back.

Theories:

1) Lukashenko is a stalking horse for Russia papering over defeat without having to admit it.
3) Lukashenko sees the light of the oncoming train and is flailing to find an exit ramp.
Click to expand...
I'm going with a mix of 1 and 3 here. I think he's trying to help Putin spin an exit from this.
 
I can't see him going against the only guy between him and "sought for questioning in embezzlement investigation, falls out window tragically in chain of evidence mistake."
 
Kepler said:
I can't see him going against the only guy between him and "sought for questioning in embezzlement investigation, falls out window tragically in chain of evidence mistake."
Click to expand...
Not just him, but the whole system that props him up because they're criminals who can enrich themselves under his leadership.
 
aparch said:
Not sure how true, but there may be enough oil particles in the air that with an incoming storm system, the rain will literally be oil.
Click to expand...
iu
 
Russians leaving Crimea.

One way this war could end: the Russians in Ukraine just split and give Moscow a huge refugee problem, Ukraine recaptures all their territory and doesn't have a fifth column among them anymore.

Caveat: Warburg is a thirst trap and exaggerates. However if the facts cited are real then the outcome could occur.
 
We'll know Ukraine has won when Dump issues an ultimatum that they accept the status quo occupation or we cut off all aid and start aiding Russia.

Dictators help each other.
 
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Just a coincidence that the tide really turned and Ukraine was able to go on the offensive after it stopped sharing intel with the child rapist war criminal...
 
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