Re: Ohio State vs Niagara 12/2 - 12/3
Bottom line right now is we are getting hammered by the polls over that series at North Dakota back in October. If we want to get back in the top ten, we have to keep winning and sweep unranked teams at home.
You piqued my curiousity, so I decided to play around a bit with this week's USCHO Poll. Obviously the rankings are at least partially based on
Overall Record from the Current Season. It's long been my conviction that
Perceived Conference Strength plays a major role. It's also the case that most voters will be quite familiar with one conference, and relatively unfamiliar with the other three. For that reason, I would expect that
Current Standing Within Conference would usually be adopted by those looking in from the outside.
To put the proposed criteria to a simple test, let's delete team names from the rankings. In their place, we'll use conference names along with current standings. (based on overall record) I'll include all teams receiving votes, meaning 14 teams. The resulting list looks like this:
1. WCHA #1
2. WCHA #2
3. ECAC #1
4. Hockey East #2
5. WCHA #3
6. CHA #1
7. Hockey East #4
8. WCHA #4
9. WCHA #6
10. Hockey East #1
11. ECAC #3
12. WCHA #5
13. ECAC #5
14. ECAC #2
The WCHA has 6 of the 14 spots, including the top 2 positions. I'd argue that's fully justified, but it's pretty hard to argue we should have more teams or be ranked even higher.
The ECAC has 4 teams, Hockey East 3 teams, and the CHA 1 team receiving votes. In the case of the ECAC, the rankings look a touch low, though it could also be argued that 4 teams might be one above their "real" share. But overall, it looks a pretty reasonable reflection of perceived conference strength.
Now, what about rank
within each conference? We see some minor discrepencies:
Hockey East #1, WCHA #5 and ECAC #2 appear to be a little underrated.
Hockey East #2, Hockey East #4, WCHA #6, ECAC #3 and ECAC #5 appear to be a little overrated.
Who are the underrated teams? Northeastern, Ohio State and Quinnipiac.
Who are the overrated teams? BC, BU, UMD, Harvard and Dartmouth.
The common denominator seems fairly obvious. The teams on the "overrated" list have had considerable national success in recent years, including Frozen Four appearances, The "underrated" teams have certainly been respectable, but haven't really been a factor at the national level. Even if it's not a conscious thought process, the teams that have previously performed on the national stage get a little bit of extra credit in the voting. To the extent a conscious decision is being made, perhaps the thought is that "the cream will eventually rise to the top."
Looked at in this way, the Buckeyes aren't really being singled out, nor is one bad weekend swamping the evaluation. The traditional powers just get a little head start. To move up, we can't just be equal. We have to be at least a little better, and do so over a sustained period of time.
With all that said, I'm not forgetting that the polls are just a beauty contest. And with that thought in mind, the current voting pattern becomes even more understandable, though not fully defensible.