Re: Minnesota hosts Penn State: 3/13 & 3/14
I agree with you here, Koho. Bottom line is two teams each control their own destiny, but one team (the Gophers) don't. One team (Gophers) absolutely needs to sweep, but just one of two teams needs to sweep. I don't have the math skills to figure the odds of the various scenarios, even assuming all three teams having an equal chance in each of their two games, but I think it's safe to conclude that the odds are not in the Gophers' favor.
You're both incorrect in "your assumptions" for the following reasons:
1) Since 2010-11, the Michigan and Michigan State rivalry has played 5 home and home series. Michigan has won 1 and Sparty zero. The probability of Michigan State not being swept by Michigan is 2.5 times more likely than being swept by Michigan this weekend in the home and home series. Secondly, as I've already indicated a few times, MSU is the ONLY B1G team that has not been swept by a B1G team this season. Thirdly, Michigan State is currently unbeaten at home in their last 7 games (home record: 9-4-1) and Michigan is unbeaten at home in their last 9 games (home record: 12-2-0). Both teams have losing records on the road: MSU/5-8-1, Michigan/4-10-0.
The odds more than 2 to 1 that neither Michigan or Michigan State will sweep this weekend.
2) Since 2011 the Gophers (inc. this senior class) are 60-13-7 at home. This season they are 12-3-1 at home. The probability of the Gophers winning at home is 3 times more likely than losing at home. Moreover, prior to losing to MSU at home 2 weeks ago, the Gophers had a 16 game unbeaten streak at home against B1G opponents. Overall, they currently have a record of 14-1-2 against B1G opponents at home. The probability of the Gophers winning at home against a B1G opponent is 4.6 times more likely than losing to a B1G opponent.
For added incentive, this weekend is the last series for one of the most successful senior classes in recent memory: Seth Ambroz, Travis Boyd, Christian Isackson, Ben Marshall, Kyle Rau and Sam Warning. The Gophers are 80-15-8 all-time when Rau scores a point and 39-4-0 when he logs multiple points in a game. A second-straight Big Ten title this weekend would make the senior class the only group to win regular season titles in all four years at Minnesota.
Based upon this season's home record, odds are 3 to 1 in favor of the Gophers sweeping at home this weekend.
Then it's more of the same in a compressed B1G post-season schedule....to win both the Gophers will somehow need to continue their winning streak, the likes of which we haven't yet seen this season. On that score I am much less optimistic.
Incorrect. From Feb. 5th-20th the Gophers had a five game winning streak. A six game winning streak starting this weekend puts the Gophers on a plane to Boston for the NCAA Frozen Four semifinal game.
Would never happen if most fans and posters here hadn't lost at least some faith - and dare I say interest - based on recent disappointing results.
If you are referring to 2 road losses and MSU breaking their 14 game winning streak against B1G teams at home in the last 6 games that's far too negative and emotional. They're 8-3-1 in their last 12 compared to 8-2-2 last season going into the final series. So where's the disappointment?
It makes you kind of realize how spoiled we've become. When a talent-laden team fails to meet the expectations of its fan base it's only natural that many of those fans will fall off the bandwagon, and maybe that at least partially explains why this game thread had fallen to the 2nd page.
Funny...what you just described is the definition of a "fairweather fan". A fairweather fan tends to root for their team when it's doing well, and ignores that team if it starts to fail. People sometimes refer to fairweather fans as “bandwagoners,” referencing the idea that they “jump on the bandwagon” of a team which is doing well and jump off when the team is doing poorly or not meeting fan expectations. As a general rule, fairweather fans are heavily criticized by people who regard themselves a loyal fans who stick with a team through bad times as well as good ones.
I looked at that the other day. All conferences generally wind down the season playing mainly other conference opponents with very few, if any NC games. I'd like to see a nationwide NCAA scheduling change to mix more NC games in the second half for two reasons: 1) There's little chance of big strides in the PWR in the second half when it counts the most if conferences (it's especially significant with weaker conferences and the B1G is most likely second only to AHA as the weakest conference) stack all their conference games at the end without mixing in any NCs against higher ranking teams and 2) As conference teams perform better and gain momentum towards playoff time, without testing their performance against other higher ranking teams the PWR representativeness and regional seeding of those teams is intrinsically confounded.