Hypothetical Pairwise Question

[moose97]

The WCHA dropped the 3rd place game this year, with the thought that, while it sometimes helps a team get into the NCAA's, it can also hurt a team. I haven't seen it addressed, but was that the case this year? The 3rd place game would have been Colorado College vs. Bemidji State. CC was one of the last teams in (ended up as the 14 seed), but BSU did some damage towards the end of the season.

So, hypothetically, if BSU had beaten CC in a Final Five 3rd place game, could CC have dropped to PWR #16 or below? I wouldn't even know where to begin in figuring this out, so help?

 

[goblue78]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

The place to look is here: http://siouxsports.com/hockey/rankings/pwrdetails.php?teamid=2

I haven't looked in great detail, but I think the answer is that it wouldn't have made any difference in terms of making the tournament. CC's records against TUCs was 15-16-3, for a percentage of 0.4853 A loss to BSU would have dropped that to 0.4714. That wouldn't have cost them a TUC comparison with anybody they beat. And they were two comparisons ahead of Dartmouth, so the real issue was whether this would cause them to lose to Dartmouth, causing Dartmouth to go up one comparison and them to go down one. Since they already lost to Dartmouth on the RPI component, it wouldn't have made any difference, so they would have still beei in, with, I think (although I'd have to run down a bunch of RPI comparisons to make sure) the same seed.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

Correct. There would have been no different at all. The seedings would have all been identical.

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2011/rankings.diy.shtml

You can go to that link and enter in whatever results you want and it will generate the PWR for you.

EDIT: I take that back. All the TEAMS would have been identical, but seedings would have changed.

#1 Yale
#2 North Dakota
#3 Boston College
#4 Miami
#5 Michigan
#5 Merrimack
#7 Denver
#8 Union
#9 Minnsota Duluth
#10 Western Michigan
#11 Notre Dame
#12 RPI
#13 UNO
#14 UNH
#15 CC
#24 Air Force

North Dakota would have either gone out to New Hampshire or played Air Force in Green Bay

I would have had this as brackets...

East: Bridgeport, CT
#1 Yale vs #15 CC
#8 Union vs #9 Duluth

Midwest: Green Bay, WI
#2 North Dakota vs #24 Air Force
#7 Denver vs #10 Western Michigan

West: St. Louis, MO
#3 Boston College vs #13 Nebraska Omaha
#5 Michigan vs #12 RPI

Northeast: Manchester, NH
#4 Miami vs #14 New Hampshire
#6 Merrimack vs #11 Notre Dame

 

[slurpees]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

The WCHA got it right, get rid of the dam 3rd place game. Dumb, pointless, no one shows up. Either make it so that everyone has it, or preferably, no one has it.

 

[Fighting Sioux 23]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

The WCHA got it right, get rid of the dam 3rd place game. Dumb, pointless, no one shows up. Either make it so that everyone has it, or preferably, no one has it.

Agreed. Plus it is just one extra game at the end of the year that can drain you before the post season, or perhaps even hurt a key player. In the WCHA's case, i don't think it ever resulted in a team playing for an NCAA spot that they otherwise wouldn't have received.

 

[moose97]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

Correct. There would have been no different at all. The seedings would have all been identical.

http://slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?2011/rankings.diy.shtml

You can go to that link and enter in whatever results you want and it will generate the PWR for you.

****, that's fun to play with. With a couple minor modifications (BSU tying UMD in October and UAA in November rather than losing, and beating MTU rather than tying and beating UAH rather than losing in Jan - none earth shattering changes), they would have been #16 in the final PWR...

 

[burgie12]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

****, that's fun to play with. With a couple minor modifications (BSU tying UMD in October and UAA in November rather than losing, and beating MTU rather than tying and beating UAH rather than losing in Jan - none earth shattering changes), they would have been #16 in the final PWR...

I've got you one better (maybe). Changing the November 12th game between Union and RPI from a Union victory to a tie (Rensselaer scored the tying goal with 7.some seconds left in the third but it was disallowed), the Engineers flip their comparisons with Maine and Colorado College and move from 15th to 11th. One game, four spots.

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

I've got you one better (maybe). Changing the November 12th game between Union and RPI from a Union victory to a tie (Rensselaer scored the tying goal with 7.some seconds left in the third but it was disallowed), the Engineers flip their comparisons with Maine and Colorado College and move from 15th to 11th. One game, four spots.

Thanks, Hicks...

 

[Ralph Baer]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

Thanks, Hicks...

seconded

 

[FreshFish]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

Not so fast on RPI changing its seed from # 15 to # 11 if you flip the Union game from a loss to a tie....or if you flip the Quinnipiac game in Hamden from a tie to a win for that matter. Merriam played a fantastic game in relief; and if he had not been hung out to dry by his defense on that third-period breakaway.....or the puck had stopped short after he got a piece of it rather than it doing that agonizingly slow slide across the line.....sigh.....

You flip either one of those games and RPI is no longer tied for fourth; that one extra point gives them the first-round bye instead of Cornell. Then there are also all sorts of additional ripple effects with them hosting a second-round ECAC playoff game, against...who? Would losing that series have dropped them below # 15 entirely?? Would winning that series move them higher than # 11 (depends on the next round...etc. etc....)

You flip both of those games and suddenly RPI finishes third in the head-to-head tie-breaker, and you start to get dizzy.....(well, maybe you don't, but I do!)

Was it Tennyson who said something like, "of all the words of voice or pen, the saddest are these, what might have been?"

I'm glad enough that they are going at all!

Now if Chase can break the NCAA record for most game-winning goals in a season, I'd be ecstatic!

e^x dy dx
e^y dy
cosine secant tangent sine
3.14159
Go Engineers!

 

[FlagDUDE08]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

e^x dy dx
e^y dy
cosine secant tangent sine
3.14159
square root cube root log of pi
dis-integrate them, rpi!

fyp.

 

[burgie12]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

Not so fast on RPI changing its seed from # 15 to # 11 if you flip the Union game from a loss to a tie....or if you flip the Quinnipiac game in Hamden from a tie to a win for that matter.

I only changed the Union game from a loss to a tie because the game-tying goal was actually scored (as compared to the game against Qpac, which was legitimately a tie). (Although, by that logic, the game against Niagara could probably be flipped to a loss because AAG's goal never went over the line meaning that the game never would have gone to OT, but that's another story.)

And, yes, I did realize that earning that extra point would have had an impact on the standings. It was primarily a response to the BSU fan who changed 4 game results to move 10 spots (also without taking into account standings changes and they still didn't make the NCAAs because they were the first team out).

 

[Priceless]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

****, that's fun to play with. With a couple minor modifications (BSU tying UMD in October and UAA in November rather than losing, and beating MTU rather than tying and beating UAH rather than losing in Jan - none earth shattering changes), they would have been #16 in the final PWR...

If Gustav Nyquist hits the empty net at UNH then Maine is playing North Dakota in Green Bay today, RPI would have played BC last night and CC would be watching from the Springs.

 

[Timothy A]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

If(then*maybe)/didn't = my team still sucks.

 

[Priceless]

Re: Hypothetical Pairwise Question

If(then*maybe)/didn't = my team still sucks.

Minnesota and Maine are both one goal away from making the field in CC's place...that doesn't quite = they suck.