Hockey East by the Numbers

[Sean Pickett]

Hockey East by the Numbers

This past weekend had 4 of the top 6 teams playing 4 of the bottom 5 teams: 3 had 2 game series, while the other was a single game. BU swept BC, Maine swept PC, UML defeated UMass, while Merrimack was able to take 4 of 6 points from UVM. Currently 51 points are needed to lock in hosting a quarterfinal game, 49 points are needed to avoid a first round game and 40 points are needed to host a first round game.

Boston University is currently in first with 38 points. They have 7 games remaining, 2 each against Merrimack, PC and UVM and a single game at Maine. BU can drop 8 points and still clinch a quarterfinal home game. Friday’s game at Maine is BU’s only league game for the next 2 weeks, so it’s important for the Terriers to focus on the Black Bears and not Monday’s Beanpot game. The Black Bears have been playing well at home, winning their last 3 and going 8-3-1 on the season, so it’s not going to be an easy game. After the Beanpot BU has 2 with Merrimack a teams also fighting for quarterfinal home ice, then 2 at Vermont, a team playing much better of late and finally 2 vs Providence, a team in the hunt for quarterfinal home ice, but currently on the outside looking in and so potentially more desperate and dangerous.

Northeastern is currently tied for second with 34 points (and a game in hand). They have 8 games remaining, a Tuesday game vs BC, single games vs UConn, PC and UVM and 2 games each vs UMass and UML. NU can drop 7 points and still clinch a quarterfinal home game. They have to be ready for BC on Tuesday, as the Eagles have lost 3 straight and will want to end the losing streak. Then on Friday the Huskies battle the other Huskies and then PC, both teams on the outside looking in, so needing points. NU then has a game vs UVM and 2 vs UMass, before finishing with2 vs UML, another team fighting for quarterfinal home ice.

Merrimack is currently tied for second with 34 points. They have 7 games remaining, singles games vs UNH, Maine and UVM and home-and-home series with BU and UML. Merrimack can drop 4 points and still clinch a quarterfinal home game. That means that the upcoming games vs UNHG and Maine this weekend are very important, as losing any points to them could be the difference between a quarterfinal home game and a first round home game. They are also off the following week, so the Warriors really need all 6 points to stay in the top four.

Connecticut is currently in fourth with 32 points, but have the fewest games remaining, six. Furthermore, even if they win all 6 games they could miss out on a quarterfinal home game as they can’t reach 51 points and will need help to finish in the top four. Their Friday game vs NU is their only one against a top team and a loss will likely leave them fighting for the #5 seed and bye at best. After NU they have 3 against UNH and they finish with a home-and-home against BC.

UMass Lowell is currently in fifth with 28 points with 9 games remaining. They are in position to finish in the top four and can drop 4 points and still clinch home ice. Four of their remaining games are against NU and Merrimack, two teams also fighting for quarterfinal home ice, with another 4 against Maine (1), BC (1) and PC (2), teams that are likely battling for a first round home game and possibly the #5 seed and a bye. Their remaining game is against UNH this Saturday, the day after they host BC.

Providence is currently in sixth with 26 points with 7 games remaining. Their chances of finishing in the top 4 took a huge hit this past weekend when they were swept by Maine. They now look likely to be hosting a first round game as they have 5 games vs teams fighting for a top 4 finish, 2 each vs UML and BU and a single game vs NU. Their other two games are singles ones vs UMass and UVM, both likely must win games if for them to have any chance of getting a quarterfinal home game or the #5 bye.

Boston College is currently in seventh with 20 points with 9 games remaining. They also look likely to be hosting a first round game, but they need to get back to winning to gain on PC and remain ahead of Maine. Tuesday’s game at NU and Friday’s game at UML are both important, but their upcoming 3 games vs Maine loom large, as do the 2 against UConn. Their other 2 games are against UMass.

Maine is currently in eight with 18 points and has a league high 10 games remaining. Furthermore, 6 of those games are at Alfond, where Maine has played very well this season, winning their last 3 and going 8-3-1 overall. They host BU on Friday and Merrimack on Sunday, then finish the season with a 4 game home stand, 2 vs BC and 2 vs UMass. Between they play single games at BC and UML and a 2 games series at UNH.

Vermont is currently in ninth with 13 points and 7 of those points have come in the past 2 weekends. They have 8 games remaining, a single game this Sunday vs OC, then 2 at UMass, then they host NU for a single game and BU for a weekend series, before they finish with single games at UNH and Merrimack. Vermont will need to continue to get points if to have a chance of hosting a first round game.

Massachusetts is currently tenth with 12 points and have 9 games remaining. They have only 2 points from their last 7 games and need to turn that around if they want to host a first round game. It will be a tall order as they have a single game at PC this Friday, then they host UVM for a 2 game series, before home-and-homes with BC and NU before they finish up with 2 at Maine.

New Hampshire is currently last with 9 points and 8 games remaining. Reaching 8th appears unlikely and they may not even be able to escape the basement. They host Merrimack Friday, before traveling to UML Saturday before host UConn and Maine for 2 game series, then the finish with single games at UConn and hosting UVM.

For those interested I’ve uploaded a spreadsheet with each teams’ HE schedule on one sheet and standings on another sheet. If you download it you can enter the game result you want for every remaining game (in the blue shaded cells) and it will update the opponent’s results and the standings.

Finally, last season three teams had 46+ points to secure quarterfinal home ice, while at 41 points there was a 3 way tie. So, this season the cutoff for quarterfinal home ice will likely be lower than the current 51 points needed, but I think it will be around 46 points, while it will likely be around 42 points for the #5 seed and first round bye. For the first round home game the current cutoff is 40 points, while last season it was 32 points. I think it likely will be slightly higher this season, say around 35 points.

Sean

 

[AMC]

Thanks for this. The spreadsheet is very handy.

 

[Sean Pickett]

Thanks for this. The spreadsheet is very handy.

I'm glad you found it useful. It's a little early to be doing a by the numbers, but the spreadsheet makes it easier.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

Northeastern defeated BC tonight, 2-1, winning their game-in-hand over BU and Merrimack. They are now in sole possession of second, 1 point behind BU and 3 points ahead of Merrimack.

With the loss, their fourth in a row, BC continues to fall out of the race for the #5 seed and first round bye. The Eagles have 3 games vs Maine and 2 vs UConn, so they still have a chance, but they will need help from other teams to defeat PC.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

This weekend sees all games between the top 6 and bottom 5 teams with the exception of UConn at NU. The results could either increase the separation or close the gap between the two groups.

Game of the Week

“Clash of the Huskies”: UConn at Northeastern. This game is critical for UConn, as it’s their last game the other top teams. They need the 3 points to keep their lead for the #5 seed at first round bye, as well as to keep their chances of a quarterfinal final home game possible. For NU it important as with a win they would either keep pace with BU, or move into first if BU loses. It would also keep their winning momentum as they head into Monday’s Beanpot showdown with BU.

Other Friday Games

Boston University at Maine. BU needs the win (in regulation) to remain in first place and keep their winning momentum as they head into Monday’s Beanpot showdown with NU. Furthermore, with a win Coach Pandolfo would tie Coach Parker for reaching 20 wins in the fewest games played (“Win one for Pando”). For Maine a win would keep them heading up the standings and keep the chances of getting a first round bye (and even possible quarterfinal home ice) alive. The Black Bears have been playing well at home this season, 8-3-1 overall, and have won their last three straight.

Boston College at UMass Lowell. UML can put more distance between itself and BC and the teams below them with a win. They would also remain on pace to finish in the top four and earn a quarterfinal first round game. BC needs a win to end a 4 game losing streak and 5 game winless streak.

Massachusetts at Providence. Providence needs these points after a bad weekend at Maine. A loss to 10th place UMass would extend their losing streak to 4, 6 out of 7, and could knock them out of any realistic chance of avoiding a first round game. UMass has little to show for this season, but they need a win for any chance of getting a first round home game.

Merrimack at New Hampshire. MC needs a regulation win against the last place team, especially after dropping points to UVM last weekend. While they would still be on track for a top four finish even with a loss, it would reduce their margin for dropping points in other games that will be much harder for them. New Hampshire has had another disappointing season and this looks to be one of their “easiest” games to earn points the rest of the way. That said, they are likely just play spoiler in their remaining games, although they could move out of the basement if the can get a few wins down the stretch.

Saturday’s Game

New Hampshire at UMass Lowell. UML has a great chance to pick up 3 points in this game and could move into the top four with a win, depending on the outcome of their game with BC and the UConn/NU game. For New Hampshire is will be a hard game, but if UML is overlooking them they could pull out a surprise.

Sunday Games

Merrimack at Maine. Merrimack has had a tough 2 weeks, losing 2 games against NU before taking 4 of 6 at UVM. They will face another tough road game on Sunday at Maine, where the Black Bears have been playing well. Merrimack needs the points as a loss would put them in danger of missing out on a top 4 finish. Maine needs the points to continue to challenge for a possible first round bye.

Providence at Vermont. PC really needs these 3 points. After this game they have to play NU(1), UML(2), and BU(2) in their 5 remaining games, all which will likely be harder to earn points in. This is UVM’s lone game this weekend, and one of the “easier” ones they have left in which to pick up points. If they want to get a first round home game they really need to take 3 points from PC.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

Friday the underdogs over performed, with only BU taking all three points vs a bottom 5 team. BC took a point from UML in a shoot-out loss, UNH defeated Merrimack in overtime and UMass took 3 points from a slumping PC. In the battle of the Huskies, UConn took a 2-1 overtime win over NU. With these results the threshold for quarterfinal home ice drops to 50 points, the #5 seed and first round bye drops to 49 points, while the first round home ice threshold remains at 40 points.

The spreadsheet has also been updated through Friday’s games.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

The HEA standings are tightening up. NU is now 1 point behind BU, but have played one more game. Merrimack remains in third despite having the weekend off as Connecticut lost to UNH and remains in fourth. PC takes 1 point vs NU and moves into a tie with UML for fifth, but has played more games. Maine defeated BC and moved into seventh ahead of them by 2 points with a game in hand and 2 more head-to-head. UMass is ninth, with a game in hand vs BC (to be played Saturday) and 2 head-to-head vs BC next weekend. UNH has jumped into a tie with UMass, but has played 2 more games. UVM remains in 11th, with a game in hand over UNH.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

After Friday's games 47 points will clinch quarterfinal home ice; 46 points will clinch the #5 seed and a first round bye; 36 points will clinch first round home ice.
BU is in first and can finish between first and 7th. They can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 6 points from their 6 remaing games.

NU is in second and can finish between first and 7th. They can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 7 points from their 5 remaining games.

Merrimack is in third and can finish between first and 9th. They can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 11 points from their 5 remaing games.

UConn is in fourth and can finish between first and 9th. They will need help to clinch quarterfinal home ice, but can clinch the #5 seed and a first round bye if the take all 12 points from their remaining 4 games.

Umass Lowell is tied for fifth and can finish between first and 11th. They can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 17 points from their remaining 7 games.

Providence is tied for fifth and can finish between first and 11th. They will need a lot of help to clinch a top 5 seed, but they can clinch first round home ice by taking 6 points from their 4 remaining games.

Maine is in 7th and can finish between first and 11th. They will need help to clinch a top 5 seed, but they can clinch first round home ice by taking 13 points from their 7 remaining games (less if those points are against BC or UMass).

Boston College is in 8th and can finish between 3rd and 11th. They will need help to clinch a top 5 seed, but can clinch first round home ice by taking 15 points from their 6 remaining games.

UMass is in 9th and can finish between 3rd and 11th. They will need help to clinch a top 5 seed, but can clinch first round home ice by taking 19 points from their 7 remaing games, including at least 4 points from their 2 games vs BC.

New Hampshire is currently in 10th and can finish between 6th and 11th. They will need help to clinch first round home ice, with 5 games remaing.

Vermont is currently in 11th and can finish between 6th and 11th. They will need help to clinch first round home ice, with 6 games 6 games remaing.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

UNH takes 2 points from UConn Saturday afternoon to move into 9th place and continue to try and get home ice for the first round. Unfortunately, they currently have the lowest point ceiling available, so they will need help.

UConn only manages 1 point on the weekend, seriously hurting their chances of getting quarterfinal home ice and putting them in danger of having to play a first round game. The good news is they have banked 12 more points than Maine, the bad news is Maine has 4 games in hand.

UConn's loss has also lowered the threshold for quarterfinal home ice to 45 points.

Sean

 

[PaulKorea]

First time finding my way to this thread but PK says it's a fascinating read and greatly organized.

 

[Sean Pickett]

First time finding my way to this thread but PK says it's a fascinating read and greatly organized.

Thanks. Another poster, Todd, used to do even more in-depth analysis of the Hockey East standings near the end of the season. My efforts aren't as detailed as his were, but I hope between my posts and the spreadsheet I created this thread is useful.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

There was only one game Sunday, Maine at UMass Lowell. The outcome of the game had only one impact, solidifying the #5 seed and bye cutline at 44 points for now.

Upcoming series next weekend may have major impacts on the standings, depending on whether or not there are any sweeps. I plan to post about the games later this week.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

I started this thread 2 weeks ago, probably a little early. In that time there has been limited movement in the standings despite several opportuinities by teams to make moves. The biggest changes have been in the thresholds: the quarterfinal home ice cutoff dropped from 51 to 45 points; the #5 seed and bye cutoff dropped from 49 to 44 points; and the first round home ice cutoff dropped from 40 to 36 points.

BU played just one game, but took all 3 points and was able to remain in first as the teams behind them all stumbled. They now have 41 points and 6 games remaining: 2 vs MC, 2 at UVM, and 2 vs PC. They can finish between 1st and 7th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 4 points from their remaining games.

NU played three games, but only took 6 points and was unable to overtake BU for first. They now have 40 points and 5 games remaining: at UVM, 2 vs UMass, and 2 vs UML. They can finish between 1st and 7th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 5 points from their remaining games.

Merrimack played two games, but only took 2 points, as they fell back from a tie for second into 3rd. They now have 36 points and 5 games remaining: 2 vs BU, 2 vs UML, and UVM. They can finish between 1st and 7th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 9 points from their remaining games.

UConn played 3 games, but only took 3 points, remaining in 4th. They now have 35 points and 3 games remaining: UNH and 2 vs BC. They can finish between 1st and 8th, but can clinch at least the #5 seed and bye by taking all 9 remaining points available to them.

UMass Lowell played 3 games, but only took 4 points, remaining in 5th. They now have 32 points and 6 games remaining: 2 each vs PC, MC, and NU. They can finish between 1st and 9th, but can clinch quarterfinal home ice by taking 13 points from their remaining games.

Providence played 3 games, taking just 4 points and remaing in 6th. They now have 30 points and 4 games remaining: 2 each vs UML and BU. They can finish between 1st and 10th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 6 points from their remaining games.

Maine played 4 games, taking half the points, 6, and moving up one spot, to 7th. They now have 24 points and 6 games remaining: 2 at UNH, and 2 each vs BC and UMass at home. They can finish between 2nd and 11th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 12 points from their remaining games.

Boston College played 3 games, taking just 1 point and dropping one spot, to 8th. They now have 21 points and 6 games remaining: 2 each vs UMass, at Maine, and UConn. They can finish between 3rd and 11th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 15 points from their remaining games.

UMass played 3 games, taking 7 points and moving up one spot to 9th. They now have 19 points and 6 games remaining: 2 each vs BC, NU, and at Maine. They can finish between 4th and 11th and can clinch first round home ice by taking 17 points from their remaining games.

New Hampshire played 4 games, taking 10 points and moving into a tie for 9th. They now have 19 points and 4 games remaining: 2 vs Maine, at UConn, and UVM. They can finish between 6th and 11th but will need help to clinch first round home ice.

Vermont played 3 games, taking just 2 points and dropping into the basement. They now have 15 points with 5 games remaining: NU, 2 vs BU, at UNH, and at MC. They can finish between 7th and 11th, but will need help to clinch first round home ice.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

This weekend there are four 2 game series, plus a single game between NU and UVM.

BU vs Merrimack: This series between 2 of the top 3 teams in the standings is important to both teams. BU has only played 2 Beanpot games in the past 2 weeks, losing both, while Merrimack has been completely off since 2 overtime losses 2 weeks ago. For BU remaing in first place and clinching quarterfinal home ice is on the line; for MC getting back on track and solidifying their chances of quarterfinal home ice is on the line.

UML vs PC: This series is between 2 teams fighting for quarterfinal home ice, although PC will need help. Both have a chance to pass UConn and move into the top 4 with a regulation sweep, although a sweep is not critical for UML while it is for PC.

Maine at UNH: This series between 2 long-time rivals may be the most important one between them in a decade. Both are playing well coming into the weekend and both are playing for something. Maine is fighting for the #5 seed and a first round bye (with some help) and possibly even quarterfinal home ice (with even more help). UNH is fighting for first round home ice, although with just 4 games remaing they will need help. Both teams realistically need 2 regulation wins this weekend to reach those goals.

BC vs UMass: This series is between 2 teams fighting for first round home ice. If either team gets a regulation sweep they will be in the driver's seat for hosting a first round game, possibly against the loser.

NU at UVM: NU is coming off another Beanpot Championship and needs to be wary of a let down. That said, NU will also want to build upon that win. UVM is mostly likely finishing 10th or 11th, so they are playing for pride, confidence and a foundation to build on next season.

Sean

 

[Sean Pickett]

I started to write an update last week, but I was busy and ran out of time. There is just one weekend left in the regular season, with a lot still on the line.

BU regained first with a regulation sweep at Vermont and they can finish between 1st and 3rd. They end the season with a home-and-home with Providence. A 3 point weekend guarantees them at least second, while a 5+ point weekend clinches winning the regular season.

Merrimack moved into second with a regulation sweep of UML and they can finish between 1st and 3rd. They end the season hosting Vermont for a single game, so they will need help to finish 1st or 2nd.

NU fell to third with a split with UMass and they can finish between 1st and 3rd. They end the season with a home-and-home with UML. A 4 point weekend guarantees them a tie for second and the #2 seed.

UConn only played one game, defeating UNH. Coupled with UML being swept in regulation they are now fourth and have the inside track for the final quarterfinal home ice spot. They can finish 4th, in a tie for 4th or in a tie for 5th. They play a home-and-home with BC and can clinch a tie for fourth with UML and the #4 seed with a 4 point weekend. If they are swept they could end in a 2, 3 or 4 way tie for either 4th or 5th. If I understand the tiebreakers correctly in a 4-way tie for 4th with UML, PC and Maine UConn will be the #6 seed. In a 3-way tie for 4th or 5th with PC and Maine UConn will be either the #6 seed (if tied for 4th) or the #7 seed (if tied for 5th). In a 2-way tie with Maine or PC at 4th or 5th, UConn will be the higher seed.

UML was swept by Merrimack, dropping them to fifth and giving a terrific blow to their hopes of clinching quarterfinal home ice. They can finish between 4th and 7th. They play a home-and-home with NU and can clinch at least 5th and the first round bye with a 3 point weekend.

Providence was off and is now tied with Maine for sixth. They can finish between 4th (tie) and 8th. They play a home-and-home with BU. In a 2-way tie for fourth with UConn they would be the #5 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and Maine they would be the #5 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and UML they would be the #4 seed, and in a 4-way tie with UConn, Maine and UML they would be the #5 seed.

Maine swept BC in regulation and is now tied with PC for sixth. They can finish between 4th (tie) and 8th. They host UMass for a 2 game series. In a 2-way tie for fourth with UConn they would be the #5 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and PC they would be the #4 seed, in a 3-way tie with UConn and UML they would be the #4 seed, and in a 4-way tie with UConn, PC and UML they would be the #4 seed.

BC was swept in regulation at Maine and is now eighth and can finish between 6th and 9th. They play a home-and-home with UConn. A 1 point weekend guarantees them a tie for 8th and the #8 seed.

UNH was crushed by UConn in their single game and is now ninth and can finish 9th or 10th. They host UVM for a single game on Thursday. Regardless of the outcome they will need to wait until UMass plays Friday and Saturday to learn where they will finish in the standings.

UMass split on the weekend and is now tenth. They play 2 at Maine and can finish between 8th and 10th.

UVM was swept by BU in regulation and are now locked into 11th. They play single games at UNH and Merrimack.


Note: All my tiebreaker scenarios are based on my understanding of the tiebreakers as published on the Hockey East website and may be wrong.

Sean

 

[amkirby10]

I was attempting to read through and wrap my head around the tiebreaker procedure for seeding in Hockey East this season, since it has the potential to directly impact my team. But holy hell, it's so convoluted and confusing. This is why we should just have W-L-T. Two points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. Dosen't need anything extra than that.

 

[Chuck Murray]

I was attempting to read through and wrap my head around the tiebreaker procedure for seeding in Hockey East this season, since it has the potential to directly impact my team. But holy hell, it's so convoluted and confusing. This is why we should just have W-L-T. Two points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. Dosen't need anything extra than that.

Agreed 110%.

 

[Split-N]

...Two points for a win, one for a tie, none for a loss. Doesn't need anything extra that.

I typed the tiebreaker procedure into BingAI. Sydney, the snarky chatbot, responded that something like that could only have been produced by artificial intelligence.

 

[Jim F.]

A quick correction to Sean's post from Sunday. The Lowell tiebreakers at 38 points depend on whether they get there with two ot/so losses or one ot/so win and a regulation loss. UConn can finish 7th. If UConn loses two in regulation, Providence and Maine win two in regulation and Lowell loses twice in overtime, there is a 4-way tie. Maine gets 4th with the best regulation record 10-8. Then, in the remaining 3-way tie, UConn loses the tiebreaker with their 8-8 regulation record vs. 8-7 for both Providence and Lowell. Then Lowell wins the remaining 2-way tie with Providence based on head to head. Would have written earlier, but I just got admitted today.

 

[Jim F.]

Does anyone know how Hockey East defines "best regulation winning percentage in all conference games"? Is it just the won-loss record in the games decided in regulation? Or does it include overtime/shootout games as ties. For example, if Maine and Providence each get exactly one point this weekend and BC wins both in regulation, there's a 3-way tie for 6th. The regulation records would be BC 9-10, Maine 8-9 and Providence 6-8. The winning percentages using only the regulation games would be .474, .471 and .429, respectively. BC would get 6th and then Maine wins the remaining 2-way tie with Providence based on head to head. But, if overtimes and shootouts are included as ties, the records become BC 9-10-5, Maine 8-9-7 and Providence 6-8-10. Then BC and Maine both have the same winning percentage (.479). Providence would get 8th with their lower winning percentage (.458). Then Maine wins the 2-way tiebreak with BC based on head to head.