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Frozen Four 2024

Frozen Four 2024

  • Total voters
    27
  • Poll closed .
B

BowWowWow

Member
Semifinals on Fri 3/22, Durham, NH: Ohio State-Clarkson 4PM, Wisconsin-Colgate 7:30PM
Who will go on to meet in the final?
 
(I think I did this right...)

Using Grant's most recent KRACH numbers:

Ohio State has a 50.2% chance of winning the championship
Wisconsin has a 34.3% chance
Colgate has an 8.1% chance
Clarkson has a 7.6% chance

For Colgate and Clarkson fans, one of my favorite stats: NFL kickers make about 95% of the extra points they kick. People see that and think they should never miss. But 95% is not 100%. Every week, some kicker somewhere is missing an extra point. Things that are only 5% or 7% or 8% happen quite often.
 
Last edited:
robertearle said:
(I think I did this right...)

Using Grant's most recent KRACH numbers:

Ohio State has a 50.2% chance of winning the championship
Wisconsin has a 34.3% chance
Colgate has an 8.1% chance
Clarkson has a 7.6% chance
Click to expand...

Thanks for this intriguing calculation! I'm unsure how much it will affect it that the KRACH hasn't been updated since March 10.

Compared to KRACH, Clarkson's lower Pairwise seems as though it might be due in part to Strength-of-Schedule numbers. Namely, Colgate has already played Ohio State, and Clarkson is just about to - and, of course, needs to get through them to make the final. Yes, a bit of Eastern bias here. ; )
 
I played with manually updating the KRACH with this past week's results and noticed those results have upped each of Colgate and Clarkson's reported odds for their next game by three percentage points.
 
I'm really excited to be going to my first frozen four. I hope Colgate does well, but I know it will be a tough weekend of hockey. I hope the games are all close at the very least and competitive.
 
kleine said:
I'm really excited to be going to my first frozen four. I hope Colgate does well, but I know it will be a tough weekend of hockey. I hope the games are all close at the very least and competitive.
Click to expand...

Have fun. You'll have a great time.

I've been to 46 college hockey championship weekends on both levels and both genders. It never gets old.
 
kleine said:
I'm really excited to be going to my first frozen four. I hope Colgate does well, but I know it will be a tough weekend of hockey. I hope the games are all close at the very least and competitive.
Click to expand...

Have fun! my first was last year up in Duluth. Our new FB quarterback transferred from UNH for grad school here. He's a quality dude and I have a lot of respect for the University. I'm sure they'll put on a fine Frozen Four.
 
I have fond memories of UNH, as I got to watch my first in-person national championship win there in 2005. At the time, and in 2016, that was as big an ice sheet as one saw anywhere, with a ton of room in the corners, and it really favored speed/skill teams. Is it still the same configuration on the ice?
 
ARM said:
I have fond memories of UNH, as I got to watch my first in-person national championship win there in 2005. At the time, and in 2016, that was as big an ice sheet as one saw anywhere, with a ton of room in the corners, and it really favored speed/skill teams. Is it still the same configuration on the ice?
Click to expand...

Google got me to an article in the NH Union Leader from spring of 2022 saying that a reduction from 200x100 to 200x90 was "underway".

(Which matches the size of the ice at LaBahn. So that's good :-)
 
Last edited:
robertearle said:
Google got me to an article in the NH Union Leader from spring of 2022 saying that a reduction from 200x100 to 200x90 was "underway".

(Which matches the size of the ice at LaBahn. So that's good :-)
Click to expand...
If I'm UW, I'd gladly take the 200 x 100 if that's what it still is. You have a lot of players who excel with open ice.
 
ARM said:
If I'm UW, I'd gladly take the 200 x 100 if that's what it still is. You have a lot of players who excel with open ice.
Click to expand...

The "shrink the rink" project was completed at UNH two summers ago. They took 5 feet of ice away on each side so it's now 200 x 90. I liked the big sheet better but it is what it is. They also have way less space behind the net compared to when you were there in 2005. They re-spaced the lines probably around 2013 or so. I am not so sure Gretzky would approve of the change. But less space behind the net didn't seem to affect the Gophers in 2016, at least not in the first 13 seconds of the championship game.

2016 championship game highlights*: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ki8n6FJk0EA

*For you OSU fans, Nadine makes the cut around the 5 minute mark.

Getting ready for the 2024 FF: https://www.instagram.com/reel/C4s62taAHSy/

By the way, I was also at the Whitt in 2005 to see the Darwitz-Wendell-Stephens show. I realized how good they were about 13 seconds into their semi-final. Seems like the Gophers in general like the 13 second mark.
 
ARM said:
If I'm UW, I'd gladly take the 200 x 100 if that's what it still is. You have a lot of players who excel with open ice.
Click to expand...

Yeah but they also struggle on that big sheet too because it's not what they're used to, referring to all the fill the bowl games at the Kohl Center.
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