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Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

J

John Biasi

Registered User
A little history nerdiness to start the weekend.

Going through old polls and found of the 45 preseason favorites since 1972, only five went on to win the national championship. Ten teams came up just short losing in the championship game. Nine preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to make the NCAA tournament, including three of the last 12 early favorites.

Denver has been the preseason No. 1 team three times previously. Once in the WMPL poll in 1987-88 and twice in the USCHO poll in 2005-06 and 2009-10. They failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 2006. In 2010, the Pioneers lost in the first round.

It Was The Season of Light: Preseason favorites won the National Championship

[table="width: 500, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Season[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Result[/td]
[td]Record[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1972-73[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]29-9-2 (.750)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1976-77[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]37-7-1 (.833)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1978-79[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]32-11-1 (.739)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1993-94[/td]
[td]Lake Superior State[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]31-10-4 (.733)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2002-03[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]28-8-9 (.722)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

It Was The Season of Darkness: Preseason favorites failed to make the NCAA Tournament

[table="width: 500, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Season[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Result[/td]
[td]Record[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1973-74[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]18-13-5 (.569)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1977-78[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]15-20-1 (.431)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1983-84[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]27-11-2 (.700)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1984-85[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]24-14-4 (.619)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1987-88[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]20-17-2 (.538)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1989-90[/td]
[td]Harvard[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]13-14-1 (.482)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2005-06[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]21-15-3 (.577)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008-09[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]18-14-5 (.554)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011-12[/td]
[td]Notre Dame[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]19-18-3 (.512)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Tournament Fate of Preseason No. 1s 1972-Present
 (WMPL 1972-95, USCHO 1996-Present)
[table="width: 500, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]1972-73[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1973-74[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1974-75[/td]
[td]Michigan Tech[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1975-76[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1976-77[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1977-78[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1978-79[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1979-80[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1980-81[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1981-82[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1982-83[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1983-84[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1984-85[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1985-86[/td]
[td]Harvard[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1986-87[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Forzen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1987-88[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1988-89[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1989-90[/td]
[td]Harvard[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1990-91[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1991-92[/td]
[td]Maine[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Quarterfinals[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1992-93[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1993-94[/td]
[td]Lake Superior State[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1994-95[/td]
[td]Colorado College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Quarterfinals[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1995-96[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1996-97[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1997-98[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Quarterfinals[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1998-99[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1999-2000[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2000-01[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2001-02[/td]
[td]Michigan State[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2002-03[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2003-04[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Regional Final[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2004-05[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Regional Final[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2005-06[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2006-07[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2007-08[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008-09[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009-10[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010-11[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011-12[/td]
[td]Notre Dame[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td] [/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012-13[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013-14[/td]
[td]UMass-Lowell[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Regional Final[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014-15[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015-16[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2016-17[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2017-18[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td] [/td]
[td]?[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
 
Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

Considering the polls at the start of the season regularly rank teams in the top 10 for multiple weeks that have not even played a game, I'm not too surprised. Polls generally reflect historical success. They very rarely accurately reflect who is currently a top team.

The preseason #1 is almost always the previous year's champion and little to do with the current year's potential. Just as the final poll the #1 is almost always the tourney champ regardless of how low they were ranked the previous weeks. Were they the best team when the season ended? Maybe not. They just won the last game of the season. So counting the number of back to back champions would likely result in a similar number.

Ryan
 
Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

John Biasi said:
A little history nerdiness to start the weekend.

Going through old polls and found of the 45 preseason favorites since 1972, only five went on to win the national championship. Ten teams came up just short losing in the championship game. Nine preseason No. 1 ranked teams failed to make the NCAA tournament, including three of the last 12 early favorites.

Denver has been the preseason No. 1 team three times previously. Once in the WMPL poll in 1987-88 and twice in the USCHO poll in 2005-06 and 2009-10. They failed to make the NCAA Tournament in 1988 and 2006. In 2010, the Pioneers lost in the first round.

It Was The Season of Light: Preseason favorites won the National Championship

[table="width: 500, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Season[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Result[/td]
[td]Record[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1972-73[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]29-9-2 (.750)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1976-77[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]37-7-1 (.833)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1978-79[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]32-11-1 (.739)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1993-94[/td]
[td]Lake Superior State[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]31-10-4 (.733)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2002-03[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won Championship[/td]
[td]28-8-9 (.722)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

It Was The Season of Darkness: Preseason favorites failed to make the NCAA Tournament

[table="width: 500, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]Season[/td]
[td]Team[/td]
[td]Result[/td]
[td]Record[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1973-74[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]18-13-5 (.569)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1977-78[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]15-20-1 (.431)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1983-84[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]27-11-2 (.700)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1984-85[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]24-14-4 (.619)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1987-88[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]20-17-2 (.538)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1989-90[/td]
[td]Harvard[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]13-14-1 (.482)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2005-06[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]21-15-3 (.577)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008-09[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]18-14-5 (.554)[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011-12[/td]
[td]Notre Dame[/td]
[td]Did not qualify[/td]
[td]19-18-3 (.512)[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]

Tournament Fate of Preseason No. 1s 1972-Present
 (WMPL 1972-95, USCHO 1996-Present)
[table="width: 500, align: left"]
[tr]
[td]1972-73[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1973-74[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1974-75[/td]
[td]Michigan Tech[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1975-76[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1976-77[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1977-78[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1978-79[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1979-80[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1980-81[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1981-82[/td]
[td]Wisconsin[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1982-83[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1983-84[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1984-85[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1985-86[/td]
[td]Harvard[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1986-87[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Forzen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1987-88[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1988-89[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1989-90[/td]
[td]Harvard[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1990-91[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1991-92[/td]
[td]Maine[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Quarterfinals[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1992-93[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1993-94[/td]
[td]Lake Superior State[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1994-95[/td]
[td]Colorado College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Quarterfinals[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1995-96[/td]
[td]Boston University[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1996-97[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1997-98[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Quarterfinals[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1998-99[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]1999-2000[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2000-01[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2001-02[/td]
[td]Michigan State[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2002-03[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Won[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2003-04[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Regional Final[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2004-05[/td]
[td]Michigan[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Regional Final[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2005-06[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2006-07[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Championship[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2007-08[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2008-09[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2009-10[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2010-11[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2011-12[/td]
[td]Notre Dame[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2012-13[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2013-14[/td]
[td]UMass-Lowell[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Regional Final[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2014-15[/td]
[td]Minnesota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2015-16[/td]
[td]Boston College[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]Frozen Four[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2016-17[/td]
[td]North Dakota[/td]
[td]Lost[/td]
[td]First Round[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]2017-18[/td]
[td]Denver[/td]
[td]*[/td]
[td]?[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
Click to expand...

Interesting summary. So many near misses at the FF4 level.
 
Re: Fate of the previous 45 preseason No. 1 ranked teams

How about a #1 at the end of February vs. tournament fate?

And I detect a distinct Western Bias in the pre season polls. :)
 
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