ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

lugnut92 · Oct 31, 2016

We're one weekend deep (well okay, just two games) in the ECAC schedule and so it's time for me to put some numbers in a program and come to conclusions with far too little data for support. After all, most of the Ivies only have a couple games played and we're relying on a fake tie to keep everyone's KRACH real and finite. That said, here are some standings that we'll all laugh at in the future, probably starting next week.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.03 possibilities):

Dartmouth
Union
Yale
Harvard
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
SLU
Colgate
—————
RPI
Cornell
Brown
Princeton

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Unsurprisingly, the Ivy League teams that are undefeated are all slated for byes, and those that have yet to win a game are all down at the bottom. This will likely change soon enough, but at least I waited for the Ivies to play once to post these this year.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Da |  342.3 |  [B]38.2[/B]  24.2  16.4  10.7   6.2   3.0   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     0 |  2.36 | 32.30
Un |  250.1 |  22.3  [B]22.7[/B]  19.9  15.7  10.6   5.9   2.5   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  2.99 | 30.75
Ya |  243.9 |  16.4  19.3  [B]19.8[/B]  17.8  13.4   8.4   4.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     0 |  3.38 | 29.86
Ha |  240.3 |  15.8  18.9  [B]19.6[/B]  18.1  13.8   8.8   4.3   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  3.43 | 29.74
Qu |  164.3 |   4.6   8.2  12.2  16.7  [B]21.1[/B]  19.4  13.7   3.3   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.76 | 26.75
Ck |  123.9 |   1.4   3.4   6.1  10.4  16.8  24.3  [B]26.6[/B]   8.4   2.0   0.5   0.1   0.0 |  5.76 | 24.43
SL |  121.6 |   1.3   3.1   5.8  10.0  16.3  24.1  [B]27.5[/B]   8.9   2.2   0.6   0.1   0.0 |  5.82 | 24.28
Cg |   52.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.6   4.6  13.3  [B]40.1[/B]  20.9  10.9   5.5   2.3 |  8.38 | 17.40
RP |   37.0 |     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   3.7  17.2  [B]28.1[/B]  22.9  16.7  10.4 |  9.60 | 13.98
Cr |   26.3 |     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.6   9.1  19.0  24.1  [B]24.6[/B]  21.3 | 10.24 | 12.28
Br |   24.6 |   0.0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   7.5  16.7  23.0  [B]26.2[/B]  25.1 | 10.40 | 11.83
Pr |   19.7 |     0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   3.8  10.4  17.8  26.6  [B]40.9[/B] | 10.89 | 10.42

   |  KRACH |     x     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Da |  342.3 |     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.4   3.6   5.2   6.9   8.6  10.0  10.9  [B]11.0[/B]  10.3   8.8   7.0   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0 | 32.30
Un |  250.1 |     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.1   4.6   6.3   8.0   9.5  10.5  [B]10.9[/B]  10.5   9.3   7.7   5.8   4.1   2.5   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.75
Ya |  243.9 |     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.1   4.5   6.1   7.7   9.1  10.1  [B]10.5[/B]  10.2   9.3   7.8   6.1   4.3   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 29.86
Ha |  240.3 |     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   0.0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.2   3.3   4.7   6.3   7.8   9.2  10.2  [B]10.5[/B]  10.1   9.1   7.6   5.9   4.1   2.8   1.6   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 29.74
Qu |  164.3 |     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.5   2.3   3.4   4.8   6.3   7.9   9.1   9.9  [B]10.2[/B]   9.8   8.8   7.4   5.8   4.3   2.9   1.8   1.0   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0 | 26.75
Ck |  123.9 |     0     0     0     0   0.0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.7   3.9   5.4   6.9   8.4   9.4  [B]10.0  10.0[/B]   9.3   8.2   6.8   5.2   3.8   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0     0     0 | 24.43
SL |  121.6 |     0     0     0     0     0     0     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   2.9   4.1   5.6   7.1   8.5   9.5  [B]10.1[/B]  10.0   9.2   8.0   6.5   5.0   3.6   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0     0     0 | 24.28
Cg |   52.7 |     0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.6   2.7   4.0   5.5   7.2   8.7   9.8  [B]10.3[/B]  10.2   9.3   8.1   6.6   5.0   3.5   2.4   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0 | 17.40
RP |   37.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.4   6.3   8.1   9.7  10.7  [B]11.1[/B]  10.4   9.2   7.6   5.8   4.2   2.7   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0 | 13.98
Cr |   26.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   3.9   5.8   7.7   9.5  10.7  [B]11.2[/B]  10.6   9.6   8.0   6.2   4.5   3.1   2.0   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0 | 12.28
Br |   24.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.7   3.0   4.7   6.7   8.7  10.3  [B]11.1  11.1[/B]  10.3   8.9   7.2   5.4   3.8   2.5   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0 | 11.83
Pr |   19.7 |   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.4   5.5   7.6   9.7  11.1  [B]11.6[/B]  11.2   9.9   8.3   6.4   4.6   3.0   1.9   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     0   0.0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0     0 | 10.42
[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Nov 7, 2016

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Every team has played an ECAC game, and early returns suggest that Union is headed to another Cleary, though the top three is pretty tight for now. Meanwhile, it looks like RPI, Princeton, and Brown should start booking buses for early March.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^56.30 possibilities):

Union
Dartmouth
SLU
Harvard
—————
Quinnipiac
Yale
Clarkson
Colgate
—————
Cornell
RPI
Princeton
Brown

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to add a hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  210.6 |  [B]33.2[/B]  23.3  17.1  12.0   7.8   4.4   1.8   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.61 | 31.54
Da |  237.3 |  [B]23.7[/B]  21.8  18.3  14.6  10.7   7.0   3.3   0.7   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  3.05 | 30.58
SL |  189.7 |  [B]20.7[/B]  20.3  18.6  15.6  11.8   7.8   4.0   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  3.23 | 30.13
Ha |  183.9 |  11.8  15.3  17.0  [B]17.4[/B]  16.0  12.8   7.5   2.0   0.3   0.0   0.0     x |  3.91 | 28.76
Qu |  151.0 |   5.5   9.2  13.0  16.5  [B]19.3[/B]  18.8  12.2   4.3   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.69 | 27.11
Ya |  146.6 |   4.0   7.6  11.1  15.0  18.5  [B]20.2[/B]  15.8   6.0   1.6   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.01 | 26.49
Ck |  107.6 |   1.1   2.5   4.5   7.6  12.4  19.8  [B]29.8[/B]  15.4   5.7   1.1   0.0   0.0 |  6.26 | 23.81
Cg |   57.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.5   6.1  15.2  [B]36.5[/B]  26.8   9.9   1.3   0.1 |  8.09 | 19.19
Cr |   45.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.9   8.7  25.8  [B]38.9[/B]  18.6   3.3   0.4 |  8.68 | 17.41
RP |   29.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.5   7.5  22.0  [B]51.9[/B]  14.2   2.5 |  9.76 | 13.64
Pr |   13.0 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.7  14.0  [B]52.0[/B]  30.8 | 11.10 |  8.70
Br |    8.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   4.1  29.1  [B]66.1[/B] | 11.61 |  6.62

   |  KRACH |     x     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  210.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.1   3.3   4.9   6.7   8.4  10.0  10.9  [B]11.2[/B]  10.5   9.2   7.3   5.4   3.6   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 31.54
Da |  237.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.3   4.8   6.5   8.2   9.8  10.8  [B]11.0[/B]  10.4   9.2   7.4   5.6   3.7   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x | 30.58
SL |  189.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.7   4.1   5.7   7.3   8.9  10.1  [B]10.7[/B]  10.6   9.7   8.2   6.5   4.7   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 30.13
Ha |  183.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.1   3.2   4.7   6.3   7.9   9.5  10.4  [B]10.7[/B]  10.2   9.2   7.6   5.9   4.1   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 28.76
Qu |  151.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.1   5.7   7.4   9.0  10.2  [B]10.7[/B]  10.5   9.6   8.1   6.4   4.7   3.1   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 27.11
Ya |  146.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.4   3.6   5.2   6.8   8.4   9.7  10.5  [B]10.6[/B]   9.9   8.6   7.1   5.3   3.7   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.49
Ck |  107.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.1   3.3   4.7   6.4   8.0   9.4  10.2  [B]10.5[/B]  10.0   8.9   7.4   5.8   4.2   2.8   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 23.81
Cg |   57.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.7   4.1   5.8   7.6   9.3  10.3  [B]10.8[/B]  10.4   9.5   7.9   6.2   4.6   3.2   2.0   1.2   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.19
Cr |   45.1 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.7   5.5   7.3   9.0  10.3  [B]10.9[/B]  10.7   9.9   8.3   6.7   4.9   3.3   2.1   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.41
RP |   29.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   4.7   7.0   9.2  11.0  [B]11.9[/B]  11.8  10.7   8.9   6.9   4.9   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.64
Pr |   13.0 |   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.2   4.3   6.8   9.6  11.8  [B]12.9[/B]  12.7  11.3   9.2   6.8   4.6   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.70
Br |    8.7 |   0.4   1.5   3.8   7.0  10.4  13.2  [B]14.3[/B]  13.7  11.7   9.1   6.3   4.0   2.3   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.62


[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Nov 14, 2016

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

More games happened. No more hypothetical tie. Hooray. Quinnipiac is back on top and the bottom three are apparently already locked out of byes. Sigh.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^50.57 possibilities):

Quinnipiac
SLU
Clarkson
Harvard
—————
Union
Dartmouth
Cornell
Colgate
—————
Yale
RPI
Princeton
Brown

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  266.4 |  [B]45.7[/B]  30.8  13.9   6.3   2.5   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.91 | 34.09
SL |  229.6 |  [B]35.7[/B]  29.3  17.8  10.1   5.0   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.26 | 33.27
Ck |  160.9 |   9.4  17.4  [B]25.3[/B]  22.1  15.7   7.7   2.1   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.50 | 30.13
Ha |  157.0 |   4.8  11.2  19.5  [B]23.6[/B]  23.1  13.4   3.7   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.07 | 28.82
Un |  126.5 |   3.7   8.8  16.7  23.9  [B]25.6[/B]  15.5   5.1   0.8   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.30 | 28.40
Da |  104.0 |   0.6   2.2   5.9  11.5  20.6  [B]36.5[/B]  17.6   4.2   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  5.56 | 25.16
Cr |   50.9 |   0.0   0.2   0.8   2.2   6.3  18.5  [B]44.7[/B]  20.8   5.3   1.0   0.2   0.0 |  6.93 | 21.41
Cg |   40.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.1   5.2  20.6  [B]45.4[/B]  18.9   6.0   1.9   0.5 |  8.03 | 17.96
Ya |   27.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   4.7  19.9  [B]44.4[/B]  18.6   8.2   3.2 |  9.12 | 14.67
RP |   16.4 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.5  14.9  [B]34.6[/B]  27.7  17.4 | 10.36 | 11.11
Pr |   10.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.2   8.8  21.4  29.8  [B]37.7[/B] | 10.91 |  9.67
Br |    9.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.4   6.8  18.3  32.2  [B]41.2[/B] | 11.05 |  9.32

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  266.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.2   5.0   7.3   9.8  11.8  [B]13.1[/B]  13.0  11.7   9.1   6.3   3.6   1.8   0.6   0.2     x | 34.09
SL |  229.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.3   5.0   7.1   9.1  11.0  [B]12.0  12.0[/B]  11.1   9.1   6.9   4.5   2.7   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.0 | 33.27
Ck |  160.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.7   5.5   7.4   9.3  10.8  [B]11.6[/B]  11.4  10.4   8.5   6.5   4.4   2.7   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x | 30.13
Ha |  157.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.6   2.7   4.3   6.1   8.1  10.0  11.1  [B]11.7[/B]  11.1   9.8   7.9   5.8   3.8   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 28.82
Un |  126.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.0   7.1   9.1  10.9  11.7  [B]11.8[/B]  10.7   9.1   6.9   4.8   2.9   1.7   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 28.40
Da |  104.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.4   3.9   5.6   7.6   9.4  10.8  [B]11.4[/B]  11.1   9.9   8.4   6.3   4.5   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 25.16
Cr |   50.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.4   5.2   7.2   9.3  10.6  [B]11.5[/B]  11.3  10.3   8.6   6.7   4.7   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 21.41
Cg |   40.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.6   4.2   6.1   8.2  10.0  11.3  [B]11.6[/B]  11.0   9.6   7.7   5.7   3.9   2.4   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.96
Ya |   27.8 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.5   2.7   4.5   6.7   9.2  11.0  [B]12.1[/B]  12.0  11.0   9.2   7.0   5.0   3.2   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.67
RP |   16.4 |     x   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.5   3.3   5.5   8.4  10.8  12.7  [B]13.1[/B]  12.3  10.4   7.9   5.5   3.5   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.11
Pr |   10.5 |   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.3   4.4   6.9   9.7  11.7  [B]12.9[/B]  12.6  11.3   9.1   6.8   4.6   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.67
Br |    9.7 |     x   0.2   0.8   2.4   4.7   7.9  10.9  13.2  [B]13.9[/B]  13.1  11.0   8.3   5.7   3.6   2.1   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.32

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Nov 21, 2016

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Not much in the way of changes this week; only a four teams changed position, and no one dropped in or out of a bye or home ice spot. Fun. There's only one ECAC game this week, but it's a huge matchup between SLU and Quinnipiac in IRELAND.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^46.76 possibilities):

Quinnipiac
SLU
Harvard
Clarkson
—————
Union
Dartmouth
Cornell
Colgate
—————
Yale
RPI
Brown
Princeton

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  325.0 |  [B]51.0[/B]  29.9  13.6   4.3   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.75 | 35.20
SL |  250.3 |  29.1  [B]30.5[/B]  24.0  11.1   4.4   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.34 | 33.61
Ha |  330.0 |  15.9  26.9  [B]31.2[/B]  16.5   7.7   1.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.79 | 32.39
Ck |  143.4 |   2.1   6.7  15.6  [B]31.3[/B]  29.0  11.0   3.6   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x |  4.30 | 28.46
Un |  136.0 |   2.0   5.6  13.5  28.1  [B]33.3[/B]  12.6   4.1   0.8   0.1   0.0     x     x |  4.44 | 28.21
Da |   83.3 |   0.1   0.4   1.6   5.9  14.6  [B]37.5[/B]  26.4   9.9   3.3   0.4   0.0   0.0 |  6.25 | 23.14
Cr |   55.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.6   8.1  26.5  [B]36.9[/B]  18.4   5.9   0.9   0.1   0.0 |  6.81 | 21.61
Cg |   43.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.5   7.5  19.7  [B]40.6[/B]  23.1   6.2   1.0   0.0 |  7.98 | 18.16
Ya |   34.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.3   7.9  24.6  [B]48.1[/B]  13.4   3.1   0.4 |  8.72 | 16.05
RP |   18.1 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.9   4.4  14.8  [B]53.1[/B]  21.2   5.5 | 10.06 | 11.73
Br |    9.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   4.0  19.9  [B]52.4[/B]  23.0 | 10.93 |  9.04
Pr |    5.3 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   6.0  22.2  [B]71.1[/B] | 11.64 |  6.41

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  325.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.6   4.4   6.9   9.8  12.4  14.1  [B]14.3[/B]  12.5   9.6   6.1   3.3   1.2   0.4     x | 35.20
SL |  250.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.2   6.2   8.7  10.7  12.4  [B]12.7[/B]  12.0  10.0   7.6   5.0   3.0   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.0 | 33.61
Ha |  330.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.5   6.7   9.0  11.1  12.4  [B]12.8[/B]  11.8   9.8   7.1   4.6   2.4   1.2   0.4   0.1     x     x | 32.39
Ck |  143.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   4.8   6.9   9.0  10.9  11.9  [B]12.0[/B]  11.0   9.3   6.9   4.9   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 28.46
Un |  136.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.4   5.3   7.5   9.6  11.4  [B]12.2[/B]  12.0  10.6   8.8   6.4   4.2   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 28.21
Da |   83.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.3   2.4   3.8   5.6   7.7   9.6  11.0  [B]11.5[/B]  11.3   9.9   8.2   6.2   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.14
Cr |   55.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.7   6.8   9.1  10.8  [B]12.1[/B]  11.9  11.1   9.2   7.1   4.9   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 21.61
Cg |   43.1 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.5   8.0  10.0  11.9  [B]12.3[/B]  11.9  10.3   8.2   6.0   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.16
Ya |   34.7 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.4   5.5   8.2  10.6  12.5  [B]13.0[/B]  12.3  10.4   8.1   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.05
RP |   18.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   2.0   3.8   6.5   9.2  12.0  13.3  [B]13.4[/B]  11.9   9.7   7.0   4.6   2.8   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.73
Br |    9.3 |     x   0.2   0.8   2.5   4.9   8.7  12.0  14.4  [B]14.9[/B]  13.5  10.7   7.6   4.8   2.7   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.04
Pr |    5.3 |   1.2   3.3   7.4  11.4  14.8  [B]15.8[/B]  14.6  11.9   8.4   5.4   3.1   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.41

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

still an empty net · Nov 21, 2016

Lugnut,

Are you just taking the KRACH rankings and assorting them in order or do you run a simulation based on the data of ecac teams only and games that are going to be played in conference in the future?

lugnut92 · Nov 22, 2016

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

still an empty net said:
Lugnut,

Are you just taking the KRACH rankings and assorting them in order or do you run a simulation based on the data of ecac teams only and games that are going to be played in conference in the future?

I run a 1,000,000 simulations of the remaining ECAC schedule using KRACH.

lugnut92 · Nov 27, 2016

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

One huge matchup on the weekend and it ends in a scoreless tie. Awesome.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^46.28 possibilities):

Quinnipiac
SLU
Harvard
Clarkson
—————
Union
Cornell
Dartmouth
Yale
—————
Colgate
Princeton
RPI
Brown

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  304.0 |  [B]48.0[/B]  29.9  13.7   5.6   2.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  1.86 | 33.65
SL |  238.9 |  [B]29.2[/B]  27.9  20.6  12.4   6.3   2.7   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.51 | 32.06
Ha |  273.9 |  13.2  20.6  [B]25.2[/B]  19.5  12.3   6.2   2.5   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x |  3.28 | 30.18
Ck |  192.2 |   6.2  12.5  20.1  [B]24.1[/B]  18.6  11.5   5.8   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  4.00 | 28.57
Un |  146.9 |   2.5   5.6  11.1  18.3  [B]24.6[/B]  20.3  13.7   3.1   0.7   0.1   0.0     x |  4.93 | 26.60
Cr |  119.5 |   0.5   1.7   4.7  10.2  18.0  27.1  [B]27.2[/B]   7.9   2.3   0.4   0.0   0.0 |  5.90 | 24.35
Da |  128.2 |   0.5   1.8   4.6   9.5  16.4  25.2  [B]28.5[/B]   9.7   3.0   0.7   0.0   0.0 |  6.01 | 24.07
Ya |   72.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   3.2  10.3  [B]33.6[/B]  31.7  17.5   2.3   0.2 |  8.54 | 17.43
Cg |   51.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   2.6   8.7  32.0  [B]34.8[/B]  17.4   3.3   0.3 |  8.63 | 17.01
Pr |   49.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.1  11.5  23.6  [B]46.6[/B]  13.1   2.6 |  9.63 | 14.10
RP |   19.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.3  14.3  [B]59.1[/B]  22.5 | 10.99 |  9.26
Br |    9.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   3.0  22.2  [B]74.4[/B] | 11.70 |  6.72

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu |  304.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.2   3.8   5.9   8.5  11.0  13.0  [B]13.6[/B]  13.0  10.7   8.0   4.7   2.6   0.9   0.3     x | 33.65
SL |  238.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.5   5.5   7.5   9.8  11.3  [B]12.3[/B]  11.9  10.8   8.6   6.3   3.9   2.3   1.0   0.5   0.1   0.0 | 32.06
Ha |  273.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.3   7.3   9.1  10.7  11.5  [B]11.6[/B]  10.5   8.8   6.6   4.6   2.7   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0     x | 30.18
Ck |  192.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   1.9   3.1   4.7   6.7   8.6  10.3  11.3  [B]11.6[/B]  10.8   9.3   7.2   5.3   3.3   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x | 28.57
Un |  146.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.8   6.8   8.6  10.3  11.1  [B]11.4[/B]  10.5   9.1   7.2   5.3   3.5   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 26.60
Cr |  119.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.2   7.3   9.1  10.8  [B]11.5  11.5[/B]  10.3   8.7   6.6   4.7   3.0   1.8   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 24.35
Da |  128.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.7   4.1   5.9   7.7   9.4  10.6  [B]11.1[/B]  10.7   9.7   8.0   6.2   4.3   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 24.07
Ya |   72.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.2   5.1   7.2   9.5  11.0  [B]12.0[/B]  11.6  10.6   8.7   6.7   4.6   3.0   1.7   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.43
Cg |   51.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.2   3.8   6.1   8.3  10.6  11.8  [B]12.2[/B]  11.3   9.8   7.7   5.6   3.7   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.01
Pr |   49.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.1   2.0   3.7   5.6   8.1  10.2  11.9  [B]12.2[/B]  11.6  10.1   8.0   5.9   3.9   2.4   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.10
RP |   19.3 |     x   0.3   0.8   2.5   4.8   8.2  11.1  13.5  [B]13.9[/B]  13.0  10.8   8.2   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.26
Br |    9.2 |     x   2.0   5.5  10.5  14.6  [B]16.7[/B]  15.9  13.0   9.3   6.0   3.4   1.7   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  6.72

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Dec 5, 2016

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

RPI finally finds their way to the bottom of the table, and Harvard taked their place at the top. There's a huge gap developing between sixth and seventh, as the Big Red are closer to taking the Cleary than they are to dropping one position in the standings. Similarly, Brown and RPI may want to get cozy as they're each a decent number of points behind Princeton in tenth.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^41.99 possibilities):

Harvard
Quinnipiac
SLU
Union
—————
Clarkson
Cornell
Dartmouth
Yale
—————
Colgate
Princeton
Brown
RPI

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  447.0 |  [B]50.9[/B]  22.9  13.5   7.7   3.6   1.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.94 | 33.69
Qu |  259.1 |  17.8  [B]24.0[/B]  24.0  18.3  10.9   4.5   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.96 | 31.40
SL |  240.4 |  16.0  [B]24.5[/B]  22.0  17.5  12.5   6.9   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.09 | 31.18
Un |  210.5 |   9.9  15.0  18.0  [B]20.9[/B]  19.8  14.3   2.0   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.77 | 29.71
Ck |  189.7 |   2.9   7.4  12.0  18.5  26.3  [B]28.2[/B]   4.1   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.62 | 27.83
Cr |  202.1 |   2.4   6.2  10.3  16.4  24.5  [B]33.3[/B]   6.1   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.83 | 27.34
Da |   95.9 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.9   8.3  [B]50.1[/B]  24.9  10.0   3.5   0.5   0.1 |  7.43 | 19.91
Ya |   80.3 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   2.6  24.2  [B]34.5[/B]  22.7  12.6   2.4   0.4 |  8.26 | 17.39
Cg |   44.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   8.0  23.6  [B]35.3[/B]  24.2   6.5   1.7 |  9.01 | 15.16
Pr |   52.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   4.4  14.0  26.0  [B]40.0[/B]  12.2   3.2 |  9.51 | 13.77
Br |   19.7 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.0   3.9  12.3  [B]41.6[/B]  41.0 | 11.17 |  8.78
RP |   18.1 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.8   7.4  36.7  [B]53.7[/B] | 11.41 |  7.84

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  447.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.8   8.3  10.7  12.8  [B]13.5[/B]  13.0  10.8   8.1   4.9   2.6   1.0   0.3 | 33.69
Qu |  259.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.4   4.2   6.5   9.4  11.8  [B]13.8  13.8[/B]  12.8   9.7   7.1   3.7   2.0   0.6   0.2     x     x | 31.40
SL |  240.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.8   1.6   3.0   4.9   7.4   9.8  12.1  13.1  [B]13.2[/B]  11.3   9.2   6.1   3.9   1.8   0.9   0.2   0.1     x | 31.18
Un |  210.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.6   4.3   6.2   8.6  10.5  12.1  [B]12.2[/B]  11.8   9.8   7.7   5.2   3.3   1.7   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 29.71
Ck |  189.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.4   4.0   6.0   8.4  10.4  12.1  [B]12.4[/B]  12.0  10.0   8.0   5.4   3.5   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 27.83
Cr |  202.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.2   5.1   7.1   9.3  10.9  [B]12.1[/B]  11.9  10.9   8.9   6.8   4.5   2.8   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 27.34
Da |   95.9 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.0   6.1   8.2  10.2  11.5  [B]12.0[/B]  11.2   9.9   7.8   5.7   3.7   2.3   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.91
Ya |   80.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.3   5.2   7.3   9.4  10.9  [B]11.9[/B]  11.5  10.5   8.6   6.6   4.6   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.39
Cg |   44.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.1   5.6   8.0  10.7  12.3  [B]13.1[/B]  12.2  10.5   8.1   5.8   3.6   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.16
Pr |   52.6 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.1   4.1   6.3   9.1  11.2  [B]12.9[/B]  12.7  11.8   9.6   7.3   4.9   3.1   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.77
Br |   19.7 |   0.4   1.3   3.6   6.3   9.9  12.5  [B]14.1[/B]  13.8  12.1   9.5   6.8   4.4   2.6   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.78
RP |   18.1 |   0.9   2.5   5.9   9.5  13.3  [B]14.9  14.9[/B]  12.8   9.9   6.8   4.2   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.84

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Jan 5, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Only one ECAC game played since the last post, but there've been a few non-con games that moved the numbers around.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]38.16[/SUP] possibilities):

Harvard
Union
SLU
Quinnipiac
—————
Clarkson
Cornell
Dartmouth
Princeton
—————
Yale
Colgate
Brown
RPI

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  441.8 |  [B]50.6[/B]  26.8  15.0   5.3   1.8   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  1.83 | 33.69
Un |  282.4 |  26.0  [B]29.9[/B]  26.2  11.2   4.8   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.45 | 32.09
SL |  242.1 |  20.8  [B]32.8[/B]  29.8  11.0   4.1   1.3   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.49 | 31.99
Qu |  175.8 |   0.7   3.3  11.0  [B]31.2[/B]  29.5  18.1   4.8   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0     x |  4.66 | 26.89
Ck |  158.0 |   0.7   3.1   8.5  20.4  27.4  [B]27.8[/B]   8.7   2.6   0.7   0.1   0.0     x |  5.07 | 26.06
Cr |  162.8 |   1.2   4.1   9.2  19.0  25.4  [B]27.4[/B]   9.7   3.2   0.8   0.1   0.0     x |  5.06 | 26.04
Da |   99.5 |   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2   3.6  10.4  [B]29.6[/B]  27.9  18.1   7.8   1.0   0.0 |  7.69 | 19.84
Pr |  100.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.3   8.3  28.1  [B]30.8[/B]  20.0   8.9   0.9   0.0 |  7.86 | 19.44
Ya |   85.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.0   3.7  14.0  22.2  [B]31.4[/B]  23.4   4.0   0.1 |  8.65 | 17.26
Cg |   44.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.8   4.4  11.5  25.7  [B]45.6[/B]  10.8   1.1 |  9.47 | 15.04
Br |   24.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.1  13.1  [B]71.8[/B]  11.2 | 10.89 |  9.86
RP |   15.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9  11.5  [B]87.6[/B] | 11.87 |  5.81

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  441.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.8   8.4  10.7  12.7  [B]13.5[/B]  13.0  10.8   8.1   4.9   2.7   1.0   0.3 | 33.69
Un |  282.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.2   5.1   7.7   9.9  12.3  12.9  [B]13.2[/B]  11.0   9.0   5.8   3.7   1.7   0.8   0.2   0.1 | 32.09
SL |  242.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.0   5.2   7.6  10.7  12.6  [B]14.0[/B]  13.1  11.7   8.3   5.8   2.9   1.5   0.4   0.1     x | 31.99
Qu |  175.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   3.0   5.4   8.0  11.3  13.1  [B]14.7[/B]  13.2  11.7   7.7   5.2   2.4   1.2   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.89
Ck |  158.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.5   5.4   7.9  10.0  12.2  [B]12.6[/B]  12.5  10.6   8.6   5.8   3.8   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 26.06
Cr |  162.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.3   2.3   3.9   5.7   7.9   9.8  11.4  [B]11.9[/B]  11.7  10.1   8.3   5.9   4.0   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.04
Da |   99.5 |     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.6   4.3   6.3   8.3  10.4  11.4  [B]11.9[/B]  11.0   9.6   7.6   5.5   3.6   2.2   1.2   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 19.84
Pr |  100.4 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.3   2.4   4.5   6.8   9.8  11.7  [B]13.5[/B]  12.9  12.0   9.1   6.8   4.1   2.4   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.44
Ya |   85.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.3   5.5   7.5  10.0  11.3  [B]12.4[/B]  11.7  10.6   8.4   6.3   4.2   2.6   1.4   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.26
Cg |   44.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.8   3.3   5.9   8.4  11.1  12.5  [B]13.1[/B]  12.0  10.2   7.8   5.5   3.5   2.0   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.04
Br |   24.5 |     x     x   1.0   2.7   6.2   9.6  13.0  [B]14.5  14.5[/B]  12.5   9.8   6.8   4.4   2.5   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.86
RP |   15.3 |   4.7   9.2  15.8  [B]17.8[/B]  17.6  13.9   9.8   5.8   3.1   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.81

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

lugnut92 · Jan 9, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

The break isn't quite really over yet as there were only four league games last weekend, but we're pulling into a full league slate in a few days and I'm going to declare the first half officially over (though that technically won't come until Saturday night). All this means for you is that I'm going to start putting the playoff match-up projections at the bottom of the post, but be aware that they'll probably change quite a bit in the next eight weeks.
Anyway, as we sit today, the top three teams seem to be locked into the bye (maybe not quite "locked" for Union) and the top six are almost definitely going to host at least one playoff series. At the other end of the table, RPI and Brown are pretty much garbage and barring a major turn around will be remain the bottom two. There is some intrigue at the margins as the Cornell-Quinnipiac gap is pretty small (as is the Yale-Princeton gap, though to a lesser extent).

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]36.26[/SUP] possibilities):

Harvard
SLU
Union
Cornell
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Dartmouth
Yale
—————
Princeton
Colgate
Brown
RPI

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  580.4 |  [B]73.8[/B]  18.4   6.1   1.4   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.36 | 35.51
SL |  234.4 |  11.3  [B]37.1[/B]  30.6  13.4   5.5   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.71 | 31.60
Un |  254.6 |  13.1  [B]30.8[/B]  29.4  15.2   7.7   3.3   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.86 | 31.26
Cr |  204.6 |   1.4   8.0  14.3  21.7  [B]24.4[/B]  22.9   5.8   1.2   0.3   0.0   0.0     x |  4.60 | 27.20
Qu |  183.4 |   0.1   2.4  10.9  29.6  [B]32.6[/B]  20.5   3.4   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0     x |  4.70 | 26.95
Ck |  164.1 |   0.4   3.2   8.6  17.6  25.2  [B]33.7[/B]   8.6   2.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  5.14 | 25.99
Da |  103.8 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.7   2.5   9.8  [B]41.2[/B]  27.3  13.1   4.8   0.4   0.0 |  7.52 | 20.01
Ya |  106.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.5   5.6  23.8  [B]27.4[/B]  24.4  15.2   1.7   0.0 |  8.19 | 18.29
Pr |   83.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6  11.7  28.1  [B]34.4[/B]  21.8   2.2   0.0 |  8.69 | 17.20
Cg |   44.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.9  12.8  25.0  [B]46.4[/B]   9.1   1.0 |  9.43 | 14.95
Br |   21.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.3  10.8  [B]73.9[/B]  12.5 | 10.95 |  9.37
RP |   14.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9  12.6  [B]86.5[/B] | 11.85 |  5.67

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |  580.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.7   8.8  11.8  14.6  [B]15.2[/B]  14.4  10.9   7.3   3.2   1.3 | 35.51
SL |  234.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   2.1   3.8   6.3   8.8  11.7  13.1  [B]14.1[/B]  12.4  10.6   7.1   4.7   2.2   1.1   0.3   0.1     x | 31.60
Un |  254.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.6   2.8   4.9   7.1   9.9  11.6  [B]13.3[/B]  12.6  11.8   8.8   6.6   3.8   2.2   0.9   0.4   0.1   0.0 | 31.26
Cr |  204.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.5   5.4   7.4   9.6  11.1  [B]12.2[/B]  11.7  10.7   8.6   6.5   4.2   2.6   1.3   0.7   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 27.20
Qu |  183.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.2   4.6   7.4  11.9  13.9  [B]16.8[/B]  14.3  13.0   7.4   4.9   1.5   0.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.95
Ck |  164.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.9   3.6   5.5   8.2  10.3  12.4  [B]12.7[/B]  12.4  10.4   8.4   5.6   3.7   1.9   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x | 25.99
Da |  103.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.4   5.7   8.0  10.7  12.2  [B]13.2[/B]  12.1  10.6   7.9   5.6   3.5   2.0   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.01
Ya |  106.5 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.3   5.1   7.6   9.6  11.6  [B]12.1  12.1[/B]  10.6   8.8   6.3   4.4   2.6   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
Pr |   83.9 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.1   4.7   7.1  11.1  12.9  [B]15.3[/B]  13.5  12.4   8.3   5.8   2.9   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.20
Cg |   44.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.9   3.5   6.0   8.6  11.4  12.7  [B]13.2[/B]  11.9  10.0   7.5   5.2   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.95
Br |   21.8 |     x     x   1.4   3.7   7.8  11.5  14.7  [B]15.3[/B]  14.2  11.4   8.3   5.4   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.37
RP |   14.6 |   5.1  10.0  16.6  [B]18.4[/B]  17.4  13.5   9.1   5.3   2.7   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.67

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ha    SL    Un    Cr    Qu    Ck    Da    Ya    Pr    Cg    Br    RP |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ha |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3 |  99.6
SL |     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   2.1   5.0 |  92.4
Un |     x   0.0           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.5   3.5   7.1 |  88.5
Cr |     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.0   0.4   1.6   2.2   5.5  20.5  24.1 |  45.4
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.3   0.7   1.6   4.1  19.4  30.7 |  43.0
Ck |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.7   2.4   3.6   7.9  28.9  26.1 |  29.8
Da |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1        13.2  22.2  28.5  13.0   3.8 |   0.9
Ya |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.2   6.9        21.2  20.0   7.6   2.3 |   0.4
Pr |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.2   6.1  16.8        14.5   3.2   0.5 |   0.0
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.1   3.7   6.1   7.1         1.0   0.2 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.2   0.2   0.1         0.0 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 17, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Games were played! Points were won! These projections almost perfectly match the current ECAC standings except that KRACH has Quinnipiac out of the money.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]30.54[/SUP] possibilities):

Union
SLU
Harvard
Cornell
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Yale
Dartmouth
—————
Princeton
Colgate
Brown
RPI

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  310.8 |  [B]61.1[/B]  23.0  10.4   4.3   1.1   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.62 | 34.20
SL |  231.4 |  18.9  [B]31.6[/B]  26.3  17.5   4.4   1.1   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  2.61 | 31.60
Ha |  294.5 |   9.3  24.6  [B]30.1[/B]  21.8   9.6   3.5   0.9   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.13 | 30.14
Cr |  252.5 |  10.4  18.8  23.9  [B]25.7[/B]  13.5   6.2   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.38 | 29.78
Qu |  164.7 |   0.0   0.6   4.5  18.0  [B]42.7[/B]  25.3   8.0   0.8   0.0   0.0     x     x |  5.15 | 26.04
Ck |  149.1 |   0.3   1.4   4.3  10.6  20.9  [B]39.2[/B]  17.9   4.6   0.7   0.1   0.0     x |  5.68 | 24.83
Ya |  123.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.7   6.2  16.2  [B]37.4[/B]  25.7   9.1   3.2   0.2   0.0 |  7.19 | 21.03
Da |   98.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.6   7.6  28.7  [B]45.1[/B]  12.0   4.0   0.3   0.0 |  7.70 | 19.60
Pr |   71.8 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   3.1  13.3  [B]44.0[/B]  34.9   3.9   0.4 |  9.24 | 15.67
Cg |   43.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.4   9.6  31.5  [B]44.8[/B]   8.8   2.5 |  9.54 | 14.50
Br |   21.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   2.3   8.8  [B]53.4[/B]  35.1 | 11.21 |  8.91
RP |   19.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   4.2  33.4  [B]61.9[/B] | 11.57 |  7.71

   |  KRACH |     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  310.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.5   4.3   7.3   9.8  13.3  14.0  [B]14.9[/B]  11.9   9.8   5.5   3.4   1.1   0.4 | 34.20
SL |  231.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.7   3.5   5.8   9.4  11.8  [B]14.7[/B]  14.1  13.9  10.0   7.4   3.7   2.1   0.6   0.2     x     x | 31.60
Ha |  294.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.2   2.6   4.5   7.4  10.0  13.1  14.0  [B]14.6[/B]  11.9   9.6   5.5   3.2   1.1   0.4     x     x     x     x | 30.14
Cr |  252.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.1   3.8   5.9   8.6  10.7  12.7  [B]13.0[/B]  12.6  10.3   8.0   5.0   3.1   1.4   0.6   0.2   0.1     x     x | 29.78
Qu |  164.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   3.1   7.4  10.6  17.2  16.3  [B]18.7[/B]  11.2   9.2   2.7   1.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.04
Ck |  149.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.8   1.9   3.4   6.0   8.3  11.6  12.8  [B]14.1[/B]  12.3  10.9   7.4   5.2   2.7   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 24.83
Ya |  123.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.4   5.3   8.2  10.3  12.6  [B]12.9[/B]  12.8  10.5   8.5   5.5   3.6   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.03
Da |   98.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.0   2.2   3.9   6.8   9.1  12.2  13.1  [B]13.7[/B]  11.8   9.8   6.8   4.5   2.4   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.60
Pr |   71.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   1.0   2.1   5.7   8.4  14.4  15.0  [B]17.6[/B]  13.1  11.1   5.9   3.6   1.2   0.5   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.67
Cg |   43.5 |     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.8   1.9   4.3   6.8  10.4  12.5  [B]14.2[/B]  13.4  11.9   9.0   6.3   3.9   2.2   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.50
Br |   21.7 |   2.1   4.7   9.9  13.2  [B]16.1[/B]  15.6  13.5  10.1   6.8   4.0   2.2   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.91
RP |   19.6 |   5.4   9.0  16.6  17.7  [B]18.1[/B]  13.6   9.6   5.4   2.8   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.71

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Un    SL    Ha    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ya    Da    Pr    Cg    Br    RP |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   0.7 |  98.7
SL |     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   2.3   3.0 |  94.4
Ha |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.6   1.0   5.1   7.3 |  85.8
Cr |     x     x     x           x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.0   1.5   8.3  10.3 |  78.8
Qu |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.1   0.5   4.6   7.3  29.7  34.7 |  23.1
Ck |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.7   1.3  10.5  13.6  29.4  27.2 |  16.5
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2         4.2  28.0  27.2  14.8  11.2 |   2.1
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   3.2        34.0  32.2   8.5   5.1 |   0.5
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   5.7   5.5         4.5   0.6   0.2 |   0.0
Cg |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.6   4.6   4.4         0.5   0.2 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.1   0.1         0.0 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 23, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Saturday's should be the highlight of the upcoming weekend with the two teams tied atop the real standings (though Union has a modest lead here due to their games in hand). Not much shifting happened elsewhere, as we head into the final weekend of January. There is a pretty stark gap between 7th and 8th, meaning no teams above Dartmouth are really in danger of having to travel for the first weekend, and only one of Colgate and Princeton could possibly make the leap.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]26.24[/SUP] possibilities):

Union
SLU
Cornell
Harvard
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Yale
Dartmouth
—————
Colgate
Princeton
Brown
RPI

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  305.0 |  [B]67.2[/B]  20.8   8.9   2.3   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x |  1.49 | 34.29
SL |  211.3 |  13.5  [B]34.1[/B]  32.8  15.3   3.5   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.64 | 30.98
Cr |  265.5 |  17.4  [B]32.7[/B]  27.2  14.6   6.1   1.7   0.4   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.66 | 30.84
Ha |  226.9 |   1.8  11.1  22.4  [B]32.3[/B]  21.3   8.0   2.7   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.97 | 27.89
Qu |  160.5 |   0.0   0.8   5.7  23.2  [B]39.5[/B]  20.5   9.7   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x |  5.04 | 25.83
Ck |  134.1 |   0.0   0.4   1.9   6.0  13.7  [B]33.8[/B]  34.8   7.4   1.6   0.3   0.0     x |  6.23 | 23.41
Ya |  141.4 |   0.0   0.1   1.1   6.1  14.8  30.5  [B]33.6[/B]   9.8   3.1   1.0   0.1   0.0 |  6.36 | 22.82
Da |   85.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   3.3  11.9  [B]50.7[/B]  22.4   9.8   1.4   0.1 |  8.26 | 18.13
Cg |   48.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.1   4.4  19.6  [B]36.7[/B]  30.0   7.0   1.1 |  9.15 | 15.99
Pr |   69.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4   2.2  10.5  31.0  [B]44.1[/B]  10.9   0.9 |  9.52 | 15.38
Br |   27.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.2   4.9  13.2  [B]65.5[/B]  15.0 | 10.88 | 10.80
RP |   18.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   1.6  15.2  [B]82.9[/B] | 11.81 |  7.63

   |  KRACH |     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  305.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.3   4.1   7.0   9.5  12.9  14.0  [B]15.1[/B]  12.1  10.3   5.7   3.6   1.1   0.5 | 34.29
SL |  211.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.9   1.9   4.6   7.1  12.1  13.8  [B]17.4[/B]  14.2  13.3   7.2   4.9   1.4   0.7     x     x     x     x | 30.98
Cr |  265.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   3.1   5.3   8.4  11.0  13.9  [B]14.3[/B]  14.2  10.9   8.4   4.5   2.6   0.8   0.3     x     x     x | 30.84
Ha |  226.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.2   5.0   7.5  12.4  13.8  [B]17.2[/B]  13.8  12.9   7.0   4.8   1.4   0.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.89
Qu |  160.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.9   3.8   8.6  11.4  [B]17.8[/B]  16.1  [B]17.8[/B]  10.3   8.1   2.4   1.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.83
Ck |  134.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   2.0   3.6   7.1   9.5  13.8  14.1  [B]15.4[/B]  11.9  10.1   5.7   3.7   1.4   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.41
Ya |  141.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.7   3.1   5.7   8.2  11.7  13.1  [B]14.9[/B]  12.8  11.4   7.4   5.1   2.3   1.1   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.82
Da |   85.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.8   4.7   7.2  12.1  13.5  [B]16.3[/B]  13.7  12.3   7.8   5.3   2.5   1.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.13
Cg |   48.7 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.1   2.4   5.4   8.0  12.3  13.9  [B]15.3[/B]  13.2  11.0   7.5   4.9   2.6   1.3   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.99
Pr |   69.0 |     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.4   2.8   7.0   9.5  15.4  15.2  [B]17.0[/B]  12.1   9.8   4.9   2.9   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.38
Br |   27.6 |     x     x   2.4   4.7  10.5  13.3  [B]16.8[/B]  15.4  13.7   9.7   6.5   3.7   1.9   0.8   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.80
RP |   18.9 |   5.7   9.5  17.2  17.8  [B]17.9[/B]  13.3   9.2   5.1   2.6   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.63

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Un    SL    Cr    Ha    Qu    Ck    Ya    Da    Cg    Pr    Br    RP |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5 |  99.3
SL |     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   1.1   2.9 |  95.7
Cr |     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.5   2.2   5.2 |  91.8
Ha |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.6   2.6   8.8  19.0 |  67.6
Qu |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   1.4   5.0   7.2  20.5  36.1 |  29.8
Ck |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0         0.3   5.6  15.9  22.3  28.7  17.0 |   8.3
Ya |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3         6.3  16.1  20.9  27.4  17.6 |   7.3
Da |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.1        31.6  25.0   6.9   1.2 |   0.1
Cg |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.7   1.2  12.9         8.1   2.1   0.2 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.5   1.4   6.3   4.0         0.8   0.1 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.7   0.3   0.1         0.0 |   0.0
RP |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Jan 29, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Games sure happened! Not much changed.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]21.47[/SUP] possibilities):

Union
SLU
Harvard
Cornell
—————
Quinnipiac
Yale
Clarkson
Dartmouth
—————
Colgate
Princeton
Brown
RPI

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  278.8 |  [B]52.8[/B]  33.2   9.7   3.6   0.7   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.66 | 33.61
SL |  234.1 |  37.8  [B]39.7[/B]  16.7   5.3   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.91 | 32.64
Ha |  272.7 |   7.2  20.5  [B]47.8[/B]  17.4   6.0   1.1   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  2.98 | 29.83
Cr |  207.1 |   2.2   6.0  17.0  [B]39.7[/B]  25.6   7.6   1.7   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.11 | 27.64
Qu |  150.3 |   0.0   0.6   6.1  24.2  [B]40.8[/B]  23.4   4.6   0.4   0.0   0.0     x     x |  4.96 | 25.71
Ya |  150.8 |   0.0   0.1   2.7   9.0  22.8  [B]45.8[/B]  13.4   4.1   1.5   0.5   0.0     x |  5.79 | 23.77
Ck |  112.8 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   3.0  14.0  [B]47.4[/B]  20.5  10.3   3.9   0.0     x |  7.30 | 20.51
Da |   85.6 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.2  17.7  [B]39.7[/B]  26.7  10.8   0.5   0.0 |  8.23 | 18.29
Cg |   55.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.8  11.5  24.1  [B]34.7[/B]  23.6   2.5   0.5 |  8.74 | 17.17
Pr |   81.4 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.6  10.8  24.8  [B]52.2[/B]   6.3   1.2 |  9.47 | 15.83
Br |   26.0 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.2   5.6  [B]49.5[/B]  43.4 | 11.35 |  9.73
RP |   22.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   3.3  41.2  [B]54.8[/B] | 11.50 |  9.27

   |  KRACH |     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  278.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.0   5.0   9.3  11.8  [B]16.3[/B]  15.2  15.8  10.0   7.7   2.6   1.4 | 33.61
SL |  234.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.7   5.1   7.5  14.7  15.0  [B]20.6[/B]  13.6  13.3   4.5   3.0     x     x | 32.64
Ha |  272.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.3   4.3   6.7  13.7  14.7  [B]21.0[/B]  14.5  14.5   5.1   3.5     x     x     x     x     x | 29.83
Cr |  207.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   1.4   2.8   5.6   8.6  13.1  14.5  [B]16.7[/B]  13.4  11.6   6.2   4.0   1.1   0.5     x     x     x     x     x | 27.64
Qu |  150.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.2   4.1   9.2  11.9  [B]18.1[/B]  15.9  17.3   9.7   7.5   2.2   1.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.71
Ya |  150.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.2   3.2   5.0   9.3  11.2  [B]15.5[/B]  14.2  14.9  10.1   8.1   3.7   2.3   0.5   0.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 23.77
Ck |  112.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.4   0.8   3.4   5.2  11.2  12.4  [B]17.6[/B]  14.4  14.8   8.7   6.7   2.6   1.5   0.3   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.51
Da |   85.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.7   3.3   5.4  12.5  13.7  [B]19.3[/B]  14.9  14.2   7.6   5.1   1.8   0.9   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.29
Cg |   55.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.4   1.9   3.5   8.1  10.7  [B]15.7[/B]  15.2  15.6  11.3   8.5   4.6   2.6   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.17
Pr |   81.4 |     x     x   0.1   0.2   0.9   1.9   5.3   7.8  13.6  14.4  [B]17.5[/B]  13.4  11.8   6.4   4.2   1.5   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.83
Br |   26.0 |   5.6   8.6  16.9  17.1  [B]18.4[/B]  13.5   9.8   5.4   2.9   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.73
RP |   22.9 |   7.9  10.7  20.1  17.9  [B]18.0[/B]  11.5   7.7   3.6   1.7   0.6   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.27

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Un    SL    Ha    Cr    Qu    Ya    Ck    Da    Cg    Pr    Br    RP |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.4 |  99.3
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.3 |  99.5
Ha |     x     x           x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   3.0   3.9 |  92.8
Cr |     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   0.7   2.0  15.4  16.8 |  64.8
Qu |     x     x     x   0.0         0.0   0.1   0.8   2.1   4.7  29.7  31.9 |  30.8
Ya |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0         1.3   3.0   5.9  10.6  32.9  32.4 |  11.9
Ck |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.3        12.5  20.4  31.1  11.3   9.3 |   0.8
Da |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   4.8        26.9  22.9   3.8   2.9 |   0.0
Cg |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.5   5.5  15.6        13.1   2.5   1.4 |   0.0
Pr |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.6   2.6   5.6   5.2         0.6   0.7 |   0.0
Br |     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Feb 6, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

The top three teams are pretty much locked into bye positions, leaving Cornell and Quinnipiac to fight over the last spot. Thanks to a tiering effect taking place, Clarkson and Yale are mostly locked into 6 and 7, with Dartmouth, Princeton, and Colgate competing for home ice in the first round. I feel that it's important to note some of the shortcomings of this simulation. The most obvious is that just because something has a little x in the table and never happened in a million simulations, it does not mean that it can't happen. Easy example: RPI can still make it up to sixth place, but it's just very unlikely. The other less obvious issue is tiebreaking. This program can handle ties between up to three teams if the tie can be resolved by either H2H points or ECAC wins. Otherwise it randomly sorts the tied teams and moves on. All this means that in some situations, the simulation will suggest that an outcome has a nonzero probability even though it is impossible.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]16.70[/SUP] possibilities):

Union
SLU
Harvard
Cornell
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Yale
Dartmouth
—————
Princeton
Colgate
RPI
Brown

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  252.9 |  [B]50.4[/B]  24.7  14.0   8.1   2.8   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.88 | 32.61
SL |  207.6 |  21.7  [B]28.0[/B]  25.4  20.8   4.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  2.58 | 31.06
Ha |  291.5 |  18.3  29.0  [B]29.0[/B]  16.6   6.9   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  2.65 | 30.64
Cr |  241.5 |   9.4  16.5  23.9  [B]29.4[/B]  19.3   1.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x |  3.37 | 29.59
Qu |  163.2 |   0.2   1.9   7.6  24.2  [B]61.3[/B]   4.4   0.4   0.0     x     x     x     x |  4.59 | 27.31
Ck |  124.1 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.7   4.0  [B]49.5[/B]  34.5   8.1   2.4   0.7   0.0     x |  6.55 | 21.97
Ya |  120.9 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.6  36.8  [B]39.3[/B]  14.1   6.1   1.9   0.0     x |  6.92 | 20.91
Da |   80.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   4.6  14.1  [B]43.5[/B]  26.0  10.8   0.9   0.1 |  8.27 | 17.70
Pr |   87.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   2.4   8.6  23.5  [B]38.7[/B]  24.0   2.3   0.4 |  8.82 | 16.87
Cg |   47.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.7   2.9  10.4  24.3  [B]49.3[/B]   9.5   2.9 |  9.59 | 15.03
RP |   25.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   1.5   8.4  [B]56.3[/B]  33.6 | 11.22 | 10.49
Br |   26.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.2   0.9   4.9  31.0  [B]63.0[/B] | 11.56 |  9.81

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  252.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.8   1.7   5.2   7.6  15.0  15.2  [B]20.7[/B]  13.5  13.0   4.3   2.9 | 32.61
SL |  207.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.6   3.1   5.0  13.4  13.9  [B]23.3[/B]  14.9  16.6   5.2   3.8     x     x | 31.06
Ha |  291.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.2   1.6   3.0   9.3  11.5  [B]21.6[/B]  16.6  21.0   8.1   6.9     x     x     x | 30.64
Cr |  241.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.9   2.0   5.1   8.1  14.2  15.5  [B]19.9[/B]  13.9  12.7   4.6   2.9     x     x     x | 29.59
Qu |  163.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   2.0   3.9  11.5  13.3  [B]23.5[/B]  16.0  18.6   6.0   4.6     x     x     x     x     x     x | 27.31
Ck |  124.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.0   4.5   6.3  14.0  14.0  [B]20.1[/B]  13.9  13.7   6.1   4.3   1.0   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.97
Ya |  120.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.1   4.8   6.6  14.4  14.2  [B]20.0[/B]  13.7  13.4   5.9   4.1   0.9   0.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 20.91
Da |   80.8 |     x     x     x     x     x   0.5   1.1   5.1   7.3  16.1  15.3  [B]20.8[/B]  13.3  11.9   4.8   3.0   0.6   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.70
Pr |   87.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.4   0.9   4.4   6.5  15.1  14.9  [B]20.9[/B]  13.8  13.0   5.4   3.5   0.7   0.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.87
Cg |   47.6 |     x     x     x   1.3   2.5   8.8  11.0  [B]18.8[/B]  16.5  17.1  10.7   7.6   3.3   1.7   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 15.03
RP |   25.7 |     x  14.4  14.4  [B]26.2[/B]  17.1  15.5   6.9   3.9   1.1   0.4   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 10.49
Br |   26.4 |  11.1  13.0  [B]23.6[/B]  18.1  16.9   9.0   5.3   2.0   0.8   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.81

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Un    SL    Ha    Cr    Qu    Ck    Ya    Da    Pr    Cg    RP    Br |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.9   1.8 |  97.2
SL |     x           x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.4   2.7 |  95.8
Ha |     x     x           x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.7   4.2 |  92.8
Cr |     x     x     x           x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.7   7.2  12.6 |  79.2
Qu |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.2   0.5   2.6  22.7  40.1 |  33.9
Ck |     x     x     x     x     x         0.6   6.4  13.1  24.0  32.3  19.6 |   0.8
Ya |     x     x     x     x     x   0.7         9.6  15.6  26.4  25.0  14.6 |   0.2
Da |     x     x     x     x     x   0.9   2.3        30.7  21.3   4.5   2.5 |    NO
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x   1.0   3.7  15.4        10.7   2.5   1.4 |    NO
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   1.3   5.9   5.3         0.6   0.3 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.0         0.0 |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Feb 13, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Just two weeks to go! There's almost no disagreement between my projection and the current standings, but I give you odds so you shouldn't just ignore me completely... There's only about a one in eight chance that a team not currently in the top four jumps into a bye. There is a bit of a jumble in the 7-10 range, so Princeton and Yale can't get too comfortable just yet.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10[SUP]11.45[/SUP] possibilities):

Union
Harvard
Cornell
SLU
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Princeton
Yale
—————
Dartmouth
Colgate
RPI
Brown

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  236.7 |  [B]42.3[/B]  26.7  20.6   9.1   1.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.01 | 32.03
Ha |  346.7 |  [B]39.9[/B]  38.6  15.6   5.3   0.5   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.88 | 31.88
Cr |  249.9 |  10.9  22.2  [B]35.5[/B]  25.8   5.6   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.93 | 30.16
SL |  188.5 |   6.9  12.5  26.8  [B]48.6[/B]   5.1   0.1     x     x     x     x     x     x |  3.33 | 29.44
Qu |  148.1 |   0.0   0.1   1.4  11.1  [B]83.7[/B]   3.3   0.3   0.0   0.0     x     x     x |  4.90 | 26.19
Ck |  122.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.1   2.9  [B]58.5[/B]  23.8   9.4   3.6   1.7     x     x |  6.57 | 21.79
Pr |  111.6 |     x     x     x     x   0.4  14.8  [B]35.5[/B]  27.2  16.0   6.1   0.0     x |  7.62 | 19.83
Ya |  107.8 |     x     x     x     x   0.4  16.9  24.4  [B]28.0[/B]  18.7  11.6   0.0     x |  7.82 | 19.52
Da |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   4.3  10.9  21.6  [B]32.8[/B]  30.3   0.0   0.0 |  8.74 | 17.83
Cg |   55.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   2.0   5.1  13.8  28.8  [B]50.0[/B]   0.4   0.0 |  9.21 | 17.00
RP |   23.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.4  [B]76.6[/B]  23.1 | 11.23 |  9.75
Br |   23.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0  23.0  [B]76.9[/B] | 11.77 |  8.57

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  236.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.7   1.3   6.9   8.7  21.9  16.4  [B]25.5[/B]   9.2   9.3 | 32.03
Ha |  346.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.1   0.3   2.1   4.3  13.5  15.4  [B]29.3[/B]  15.7  19.2     x | 31.88
Cr |  249.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   1.0   5.9   8.1  21.4  16.8  [B]26.6[/B]   9.8  10.1     x     x | 30.16
SL |  188.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.4   2.4  11.4  11.9  [B]26.6[/B]  15.7  20.3   5.6   4.6     x     x | 29.44
Qu |  148.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   0.8   4.8   7.7  21.8  17.6  [B]28.2[/B]   9.6   9.3     x     x     x     x     x     x | 26.19
Ck |  122.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.5   4.6  17.9  14.9  [B]27.2[/B]  13.1  13.6   3.1   2.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 21.79
Pr |  111.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.6   1.3   7.3   9.8  [B]25.4[/B]  17.3  24.8   7.3   6.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.83
Ya |  107.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.4   6.2  20.6  15.4  [B]25.2[/B]  11.6  11.6   2.5   1.6     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.52
Da |   80.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.0   4.4  18.2  14.9  [B]26.9[/B]  13.1  14.0   3.3   2.2     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.83
Cg |   55.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.3   8.3  [B]27.3[/B]  17.6  22.8   8.6   6.3   1.2   0.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.00
RP |   23.9 |     x  25.4  19.3  [B]28.5[/B]  13.5   9.3   2.7   1.1   0.2   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.75
Br |   23.2 |  [B]29.3[/B]  21.4  26.8  12.2   7.4   2.1   0.7   0.1   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  8.57

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Un    Ha    Cr    SL    Qu    Ck    Pr    Ya    Da    Cg    RP    Br |   BYE
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.3   1.1 |  98.7
Ha |     x           x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.2   0.3 |  99.5
Cr |     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   1.0   4.7 |  94.4
SL |     x     x     x           x     x     x     x     x     x   1.1   4.1 |  94.8
Qu |     x     x     x     x         0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2  22.0  65.0 |  12.6
Ck |     x     x     x     x   0.0         3.5   4.0  11.0  14.9  45.4  15.8 |   0.1
Pr |     x     x     x     x     x   1.2        10.6  22.0  28.8  11.9   3.4 |    NO
Ya |     x     x     x     x     x   1.6   4.8        23.4  22.6  13.1   4.3 |    NO
Da |     x     x     x     x     x   1.3   8.5  10.0        12.6   3.7   0.7 |    NO
Cg |     x     x     x     x     x   1.2   5.3   5.7   6.6         1.3   0.7 |    NO
RP |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x           x |    NO
Br |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x       |    NO

Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

lugnut92 · Feb 19, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Here we are, staring down the barrel at the last week of ECAC play. Three teams have locked down byes and will fight for the Cleary, four others will face off to lock down home ice in the final round, and RPI will try desperately to stay above Brown and out of twelfth place. Dartmouth and Princeton are tied in expected points to the second decimal place right now, so there's a great race shaping up there.

Simulated Final Standings (EXAUSTIVE search of 531,441 possibilities):

Union
Harvard
Cornell
SLU
—————
Quinnipiac
Clarkson
Yale
Dartmouth
—————
Princeton
Colgate
RPI
Brown

Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record.

Rank and Points breakdown:

Code:

   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  265.6 |  [B]67.4[/B]  23.2   9.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.42 | 33.57
Ha |  419.3 |  31.4  [B]63.8[/B]   4.8     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.73 | 32.81
Cr |  266.3 |   1.2  13.0  [B]83.9[/B]   2.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  2.87 | 30.71
SL |  172.5 |     x     x   2.0  [B]91.9[/B]   6.1     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  4.04 | 27.96
Qu |  145.9 |     x     x     x   6.1  [B]92.1[/B]   1.8     x     x     x     x     x     x |  4.96 | 25.75
Ck |  134.5 |     x     x     x     x   1.8  [B]89.7[/B]   8.5     x     x     x     x     x |  6.07 | 22.78
Ya |  113.6 |     x     x     x     x     x   8.5  [B]69.6[/B]  16.1   5.2   0.5     x     x |  7.19 | 19.98
Da |   79.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.2  [B]43.1[/B]  30.9  21.9     x     x |  8.71 | 17.45
Pr |   93.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x  15.0  21.5  [B]32.8[/B]  30.6     x     x |  8.78 | 17.45
Cg |   55.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   2.7  19.3  31.0  [B]47.0[/B]     x     x |  9.22 | 16.73
RP |   27.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  [B]99.0[/B]   1.0 | 11.01 | 11.00
Br |   22.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   1.0  [B]99.0[/B] | 11.99 |  7.83

   |  KRACH |     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Un |  265.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   6.5   7.8  [B]39.3[/B]  15.4  31.0 | 33.57
Ha |  419.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   5.3   6.2  31.2  17.1  [B]40.2[/B]     x | 32.81
Cr |  266.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   3.5   6.9  [B]39.2[/B]  16.4  34.0     x     x     x | 30.71
SL |  172.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  16.7  11.9  [B]45.1[/B]  11.4  15.0     x     x     x     x     x | 27.96
Qu |  145.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   4.3   6.6  35.8  16.7  [B]36.6[/B]     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 25.75
Ck |  134.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  21.0  13.1  [B]44.3[/B]  10.2  11.5     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 22.78
Ya |  113.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  19.0  11.8  [B]39.7[/B]  11.5  18.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.98
Da |   79.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  32.3  15.3  [B]35.7[/B]   8.0   8.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.45
Pr |   93.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   7.8   8.6  [B]41.5[/B]  14.7  27.4     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.45
Cg |   55.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x  20.5  13.5  [B]47.6[/B]   9.8   8.7     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.73
RP |   27.3 |     x     x     x  [B]45.5[/B]  18.3  28.9   4.9   2.3     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.00
Br |   22.0 |  [B]52.7[/B]  19.5  22.2   3.7   1.9     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.83

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.

Playoff Matchups:

Code:

   |    Ya    Da    Pr    Cg    RP    Br |   BYE
------------------------------------------------
SL |     x     x     x     x     x   6.1 |  93.9
Qu |     x     x     x     x   2.6  91.3 |   6.1
Ck |     x     x   5.5   3.0  88.9   2.5 |    NO
Ya |        25.7  24.9  35.1   8.5   0.1 |    NO
Da |   0.5        21.9  24.8     x     x |    NO
Pr |   4.0  17.4        15.1     x     x |    NO
Cg |   1.2   9.6  11.1           x     x |    NO


Hosts on the left, visitors across the top.

yaledoc · Feb 19, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

Nice work. Since you are a Ph.D candidate and reside in New Haven, it seems more likely than not that you
are pursuing that degree at Yale. True????

lugnut92 · Feb 19, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

yaledoc said:
Nice work. Since you are a Ph.D candidate and reside in New Haven, it seems more likely than not that you
are pursuing that degree at Yale. True????

This is true. I'm a fourth year in the Pharmacology department.

alslammerz · Feb 19, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

yaledoc said:
Nice work. Since you are a Ph.D candidate and reside in New Haven, it seems more likely than not that you
are pursuing that degree at Yale. True????

lugnut92 said:
This is true. I'm a fourth year in the Pharmacology department.

When you graduate, the two of you will have to fight over who gets to be the true yaledoc on these boards.

yaledoc · Feb 19, 2017

Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

I love your sense of humor Alslammerz, but I am the true Yaledoc, and have been since 1975.
BTW, DO NOT tell anyone at the Whale this, but I was a grad student at Harvard in the fateful 1988-89
season. Unless the Bulldogs stage a miraculous turn-around, I will be rooting for the Crimson to win it all, and I will be in Chicago to see it, just as I was
in St. Paul in 1989. But again, that's OUR LITTLE SECRET !!!

ECAC Projected Standings 2016-17

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