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ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

L

lugnut92

Conductor emeritus
Here we are again, hearts full of hope as we look forward at the clean slate of the ECAC standings, wondering where our teams will end up. Well, I'm here to put an end to that hope with cold, unfeeling math. Never mind that half the conference has yet to play a game, never mind that KRACH is still using the hypothetical tie, never mind that our sample size so far is smaller than small, it's time to make unfounded projections about what will happen at the end of this ECAC schedule.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^62.98 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. SLU
  4. Union
    —————
    [*]Dartmouth
    [*]Harvard
    [*]Yale
    [*]Princeton
    [*]Cornell
    [*]Brown
    —————
  5. Colgate
  6. RPI
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 2590.7 |  [B]92.2[/B]   7.5   0.3   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.08 | 38.92
Ck |  570.1 |   7.3  [B]72.4[/B]  15.5   3.6   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.20 | 32.46
SL |  258.8 |   0.4  13.4  [B]43.4[/B]  22.0   9.9   5.1   2.8   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.0 |  3.71 | 26.88
Un |  190.0 |   0.1   4.9  22.9  [B]28.5[/B]  16.5  10.3   6.7   4.4   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.3 |  4.75 | 24.31
Da |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.1  12.4  [B]13.0[/B]  12.9  12.4  11.6  10.0   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.66
Ha |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.5  [B]13.0[/B]  12.9  12.5  11.6  10.0   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.66
Ya |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.5  [B]12.9[/B]  12.9  12.5  11.7   9.9   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.66
Pr |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.4  12.9  [B]13.0[/B]  12.5  11.6  10.0   6.4 |  7.76 | 18.65
Cr |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  11.0  12.4  [B]13.0[/B]  12.8  12.5  11.6  10.1   6.4 |  7.77 | 18.65
Br |  100.0 |   0.0   0.3   2.8   7.1  10.9  12.4  12.8  [B]12.9[/B]  12.5  11.7  10.1   6.4 |  7.77 | 18.65
Cg |   77.4 |   0.0   0.1   0.9   2.9   5.4   7.5   9.4  11.4  13.4  15.7  [B]17.9[/B]  15.4 |  9.03 | 16.42
RP |   51.6 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.3   8.0  12.4  20.9  [B]45.9[/B] | 10.66 | 13.07

   |  KRACH |     x     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 2590.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.4   4.3   7.1  10.5  13.9  [B]16.1  16.1[/B]  13.3   8.8   4.2   1.1 | 38.92
Ck |  570.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.0   3.2   4.7   6.5   8.4  10.2  11.4  [B]11.7[/B]  11.1   9.6   7.5   5.2   3.2   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 32.46
SL |  258.8 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.8   1.3   2.2   3.2   4.6   6.0   7.5   8.9   9.9  [B]10.3[/B]  10.0   9.1   7.7   6.1   4.5   3.1   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 26.88
Un |  190.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.2   1.9   2.9   4.1   5.5   6.9   8.3   9.3   [B]9.9[/B]   9.8   9.3   8.1   6.7   5.1   3.7   2.5   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 24.31
Da |  100.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.0   [B]9.7   9.7[/B]   9.3   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.1   3.0   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 18.66
Ha |  100.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.0   [B]9.7   9.7[/B]   9.2   8.2   7.0   5.5   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 18.66
Ya |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.1   9.6   [B]9.7[/B]   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.6   4.2   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.66
Pr |  100.0 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.7   8.0   9.1   [B]9.7   9.7[/B]   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.5   4.1   2.9   1.9   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.65
Cr |  100.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.0   9.0   [B]9.7   9.7[/B]   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.5   4.2   2.9   2.0   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.65
Br |  100.0 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.0   1.7   2.6   3.8   5.2   6.6   8.1   9.0   [B]9.7   9.7[/B]   9.2   8.2   6.9   5.5   4.2   2.9   2.0   1.2   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.65
Cg |   77.4 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.8   4.1   5.7   7.1   8.5   9.5   [B]9.9[/B]   9.7   9.0   7.9   6.5   5.1   3.8   2.6   1.7   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.42
RP |   51.6 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.9   3.0   4.6   6.3   8.0   9.3  10.2  [B]10.4[/B]   9.9   8.8   7.4   5.9   4.4   3.1   2.1   1.3   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.07

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

The first weekend is in the books. We have ten undefeated teams and ten winless teams. There is some overlap.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^61.07 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Clarkson
  3. Yale
  4. SLU
    —————
  5. Harvard
  6. Cornell
  7. Princeton
  8. RPI
    -----
  9. Colgate
  10. Union
  11. Dartmouth
  12. Brown
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 3691.5 |  [B]87.7[/B]  10.4   1.8   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.15 | 38.68
Ck |  815.9 |   6.4  [B]41.8[/B]  33.2  12.2   4.6   1.6   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.73 | 32.21
Ya |  773.9 |   5.5  [B]38.1[/B]  35.3  13.4   5.3   1.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  2.82 | 31.90
SL |  312.7 |   0.2   3.9  11.2  25.6  [B]26.2[/B]  20.5   8.7   3.0   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.90 | 25.97
Ha |  275.1 |   0.1   3.4  10.2  24.8  [B]26.8[/B]  21.6   9.2   3.1   0.6   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.97 | 25.72
Cr |  270.1 |   0.1   2.3   7.6  19.7  25.4  [B]25.9[/B]  12.6   4.8   1.2   0.3   0.0   0.0 |  5.30 | 24.91
Pr |  132.6 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   2.7   6.8  14.8  [B]30.7[/B]  25.8  11.8   4.8   1.5   0.4 |  7.33 | 19.58
RP |   93.0 |   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.4   4.3  11.3  27.8  [B]33.3[/B]  14.5   5.2   1.6   0.4 |  7.61 | 18.70
Cg |   60.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.5   5.8  14.3  [B]27.8[/B]  26.2  16.0   8.0 |  9.50 | 13.84
Un |   71.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   3.6  10.9  27.5  [B]29.4[/B]  18.3   9.2 |  9.72 | 13.27
Da |   36.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   2.7   8.9  18.5  32.7  [B]36.5[/B] | 10.89 |  9.90
Br |   29.3 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   1.9   6.9  15.3  29.8  [B]45.5[/B] | 11.09 |  9.33

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 3691.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   5.0   8.0  11.3  14.4  [B]16.0[/B]  15.2  12.2   7.7   3.6   1.0 | 38.68
Ck |  815.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.7   1.2   2.1   3.5   5.1   7.1   9.2  10.9  11.8  [B]11.9[/B]  10.9   8.9   6.7   4.5   2.7   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0 | 32.21
Ya |  773.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.5   3.9   5.8   7.8   9.7  11.2  [B]11.9[/B]  11.6  10.3   8.2   6.0   3.9   2.2   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 | 31.90
SL |  312.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.8   2.9   4.3   6.0   7.7   9.2  10.4  [B]10.8[/B]  10.5   9.5   7.9   6.1   4.4   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 25.97
Ha |  275.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.2   4.7   6.4   8.2   9.8  10.7  [B]11.1[/B]  10.5   9.2   7.5   5.6   3.8   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 25.72
Cr |  270.1 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.3   0.6   1.1   1.9   3.0   4.5   6.1   7.8   9.3  10.3  [B]10.7[/B]  10.4   9.3   7.8   6.0   4.3   2.8   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 24.91
Pr |  132.6 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.3   3.6   5.1   6.8   8.4   9.7  10.4  [B]10.5[/B]   9.8   8.6   7.0   5.3   3.8   2.5   1.5   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.58
RP |   93.0 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.1   4.8   6.7   8.7  10.2  [B]11.3  11.3[/B]  10.5   9.0   7.2   5.3   3.6   2.3   1.3   0.7   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x | 18.70
Cg |   60.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   1.0   1.8   3.1   4.7   6.6   8.4   9.9  10.8  [B]10.9[/B]  10.3   8.9   7.3   5.5   3.9   2.6   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.84
Un |   71.7 |   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   3.7   5.6   7.7   9.6  11.1  [B]11.6[/B]  11.2  10.0   8.2   6.2   4.5   2.9   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.27
Da |   36.3 |   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.1   2.4   4.2   6.5   8.8  10.8  11.9  [B]12.1[/B]  11.1   9.5   7.4   5.3   3.6   2.2   1.3   0.7   0.3   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.90
Br |   29.3 |   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.7   3.4   5.5   8.0  10.1  11.6  [B]12.2[/B]  11.6  10.1   8.2   6.1   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  9.33

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

12 games this weekend! Isn't that just the best? Quinnipiac needs to go ahead and lose though. Okay? Thanks.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^55.35 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Yale
  3. Harvard
  4. Cornell
    —————
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Clarkson
  8. Colgate
    —————
  9. Union
  10. Dartmouth
  11. Princeton
  12. Brown
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 5704.2 |  [B]98.1[/B]   1.8   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.02 | 40.10
Ya |  585.7 |   1.2  [B]46.0[/B]  28.7  13.8   6.2   2.8   1.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  2.91 | 30.90
Ha |  453.9 |   0.6  [B]33.3[/B]  32.6  18.0   9.0   4.4   1.7   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.23 | 30.01
Cr |  334.5 |   0.1  11.4  18.7  [B]26.1[/B]  19.2  13.5   8.1   2.3   0.5   0.1   0.0     x |  4.41 | 27.03
RP |  170.6 |   0.0   3.2   8.1  16.7  [B]24.1[/B]  23.9  17.4   5.1   1.2   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.38 | 24.62
SL |  241.3 |   0.0   2.5   6.4  13.2  20.1  [B]23.9[/B]  22.8   8.0   2.4   0.6   0.1   0.0 |  5.73 | 23.95
Ck |  257.2 |   0.0   1.8   5.2  11.4  18.5  23.2  [B]24.9[/B]  10.2   3.6   0.9   0.2   0.0 |  5.97 | 23.38
Cg |   83.2 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.6   1.8   4.5  11.3  [B]29.6[/B]  28.8  16.6   6.3   0.4 |  8.54 | 16.98
Un |   93.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   2.9   9.4  29.8  [B]30.6[/B]  18.0   7.6   0.5 |  8.73 | 16.52
Da |   58.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   2.4  10.0  20.6  [B]34.9[/B]  28.8   2.5 |  9.83 | 13.35
Pr |   49.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.9   4.5  12.0  27.2  [B]47.3[/B]   8.0 | 10.39 | 11.64
Br |   13.3 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   1.5   9.6  [B]88.7[/B] | 11.87 |  5.52

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 5704.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   3.0   5.8  10.0  14.7  18.4  [B]19.0[/B]  15.4   8.7   2.7 | 40.10
Ya |  585.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.4   2.5   3.9   5.7   7.8   9.7  11.3  [B]12.1[/B]  11.8  10.4   8.4   6.0   3.8   2.1   1.0   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 30.90
Ha |  453.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.8   5.6   7.7   9.6  11.2  [B]12.0[/B]  11.7  10.4   8.5   6.1   4.1   2.3   1.2   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x | 30.01
Cr |  334.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.1   0.3   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.2   5.8   7.5   9.2  10.5  [B]11.0[/B]  10.7   9.7   8.2   6.3   4.5   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 27.03
RP |  170.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.7   3.0   4.6   6.7   8.7  10.7  11.6  [B]11.8[/B]  10.9   9.3   7.2   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.1   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 24.62
SL |  241.3 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.7   2.8   4.2   6.0   7.8   9.5  10.7  [B]11.1[/B]  10.7   9.6   7.9   6.0   4.2   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.95
Ck |  257.2 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.3   2.3   3.6   5.2   7.0   8.9  10.2  [B]11.1[/B]  11.0  10.2   8.7   6.8   4.9   3.3   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 23.38
Cg |   83.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.8   4.4   6.2   8.2   9.8  10.9  [B]11.1[/B]  10.6   9.2   7.6   5.8   4.1   2.7   1.7   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.98
Un |   93.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.8   3.0   4.9   7.0   9.2  10.9  [B]12.0[/B]  11.8  10.7   8.9   6.9   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 16.52
Da |   58.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.9   1.9   3.4   5.3   7.6   9.8  11.3  [B]11.9[/B]  11.6  10.2   8.4   6.3   4.4   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.35
Pr |   49.5 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.5   2.9   4.7   7.1   9.2  11.1  [B]11.9[/B]  11.8  10.6   9.0   6.9   4.9   3.2   2.0   1.1   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.64
Br |   13.3 |   0.9   3.2   7.1  11.2  14.4  [B]15.5[/B]  14.4  11.8   8.7   5.7   3.4   1.9   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  5.52

[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Sooooomedaaaaay Quinnipiac will lose a game. Soooooomedaaaaay they won't break everything...

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^50.10 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Cornell
  3. Harvard
  4. Yale
    —————
  5. RPI
  6. SLU
  7. Clarkson
  8. Dartmouth
    —————
  9. Colgate
  10. Brown
  11. Union
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH doesn't care if you got completely hosed by a broken video review system. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 7774.6 |  [B]99.5[/B]   0.5   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  1.01 | 40.86
Cr |  521.7 |   0.3  [B]42.5[/B]  30.1  15.1   7.7   3.5   0.8   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.01 | 30.68
Ha |  487.6 |   0.2  [B]41.0[/B]  32.3  15.3   7.4   3.1   0.6   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x |  3.01 | 30.57
Ya |  313.5 |   0.0   7.4  15.8  [B]25.9[/B]  24.0  18.7   6.5   1.3   0.3   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.57 | 26.44
RP |  185.6 |   0.0   4.2  11.0  21.9  [B]27.7[/B]  23.3   9.2   2.3   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0 |  4.94 | 25.47
SL |  258.5 |   0.0   4.1  10.0  18.7  24.5  [B]28.1[/B]  10.6   3.0   0.7   0.2   0.0   0.0 |  5.11 | 25.21
Ck |  180.0 |     x   0.2   0.8   2.6   6.4  15.0  [B]38.3[/B]  21.3   9.6   4.2   1.6   0.2 |  7.21 | 19.95
Da |   99.2 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.5   1.8   5.8  20.4  [B]33.7[/B]  20.6  11.2   5.3   0.6 |  8.22 | 17.17
Cg |   65.3 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.4   6.6  16.3  [B]24.8[/B]  24.3  21.3   4.8 |  9.46 | 14.14
Br |   55.7 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.8   4.5  12.9  24.6  [B]27.9[/B]  22.5   6.7 |  9.68 | 13.59
Un |   64.5 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   2.4   8.6  17.4  26.7  [B]33.6[/B]  11.1 | 10.13 | 12.45
Pr |   29.5 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.7   5.5  15.6  [B]76.7[/B] | 11.66 |  7.46

   |  KRACH |     0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42    43    44 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 7774.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.1   2.7   5.9  11.0  17.2  [B]21.7[/B]  21.0  13.9   4.9 | 40.86
Cr |  521.7 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.1   8.2  10.1  11.5  [B]11.9[/B]  11.5   9.9   7.9   5.5   3.5   1.8   0.9   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 30.68
Ha |  487.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.8   1.5   2.6   4.3   6.4   8.7  10.8  12.1  [B]12.8[/B]  11.8  10.1   7.4   5.1   2.8   1.5   0.5   0.2   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 30.57
Ya |  313.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   1.9   3.2   4.9   6.9   8.9  10.6  11.7  [B]11.8[/B]  10.9   9.3   7.0   4.9   3.0   1.7   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x | 26.44
RP |  185.6 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   3.0   4.7   7.0   9.2  11.2  12.1  [B]12.2[/B]  11.0   9.2   6.8   4.7   2.9   1.6   0.8   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.47
SL |  258.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.7   5.4   7.4   9.1  10.6  [B]11.3[/B]  11.2  10.2   8.5   6.5   4.6   2.9   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x | 25.21
Ck |  180.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.8   4.3   6.0   8.0   9.6  10.8  [B]11.2[/B]  10.8   9.5   7.9   5.9   4.2   2.6   1.5   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 19.95
Da |   99.2 |     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.2   2.2   3.8   5.6   7.9   9.7  11.3  [B]11.7[/B]  11.4  10.0   8.3   6.1   4.3   2.7   1.6   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.17
Cg |   65.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.4   4.0   6.0   8.0   9.8  11.0  [B]11.4[/B]  10.9   9.6   7.9   6.1   4.3   2.8   1.7   0.9   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 14.14
Br |   55.7 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.5   2.8   4.8   7.0   9.4  11.2  [B]12.2[/B]  11.9  10.8   8.9   6.8   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 13.59
Un |   64.5 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.7   4.9   7.2   9.8  11.7  [B]12.8[/B]  12.4  11.1   8.8   6.5   4.3   2.6   1.5   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.45
Pr |   29.5 |   0.3   0.9   2.4   4.7   7.7  10.5  12.6  [B]13.4[/B]  12.7  10.9   8.6   6.1   4.0   2.4   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x |  7.46


[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Well, Quinnipiac did their part to make KRACH work by tying a couple games this weekend, but Colorado College is still terrible and we still need the hypothetical tie.

Simulated Final Standings (1,000,000 simulations of 10^46.28 possibilities):
  1. Quinnipiac
  2. Harvard
  3. Cornell
  4. Yale
    —————
  5. SLU
  6. RPI
  7. Clarkson
  8. Dartmouth
    —————
  9. Brown
  10. Union
  11. Colgate
  12. Princeton
Reminder: KRACH doesn't do ties. KRACH doesn't do prediction, it does retrodiction. KRACH cares not about your momentum, injuries, home-ice, etc. KRACH thinks you're exactly as good as your record. This early in the season, it is necessary to have the aforementioned hypothetical tie to keep all of the ratings finite and non-zero.

Rank and Points breakdown:
Code: 
   |  KRACH |     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12 |Avg Rk |AvgPts
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 1770.5 |  [B]88.9[/B]   8.8   1.7   0.4   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x |  1.14 | 37.19
Ha |  481.9 |   4.6  [B]33.7[/B]  25.5  17.9  11.5   6.2   0.5   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.19 | 30.51
Cr |  457.4 |   3.5  [B]28.2[/B]  25.4  19.8  13.8   8.2   0.9   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x |  3.41 | 29.93
Ya |  402.0 |   1.7  13.5  21.0  [B]24.1[/B]  21.8  15.7   1.9   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.07 | 28.32
SL |  325.9 |   1.0  10.6  16.0  20.5  [B]24.6[/B]  23.4   3.3   0.5   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.44 | 27.50
RP |  209.9 |   0.4   5.0  10.1  16.5  25.4  [B]34.0[/B]   6.9   1.4   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0 |  4.99 | 25.95
Ck |  155.1 |   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.4   1.5   6.3  [B]37.0[/B]  27.7  13.8   7.5   4.0   1.8 |  7.91 | 17.88
Da |  111.3 |     x   0.0   0.1   0.3   1.2   5.4  [B]33.7[/B]  30.5  15.2   8.0   4.1   1.6 |  8.00 | 17.44
Br |   56.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.3   4.0  10.7  19.9  [B]23.1[/B]  22.6  19.4 | 10.07 | 12.71
Un |   74.9 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   5.0  11.7  19.1  21.2  [B]21.8[/B]  21.0 | 10.06 | 12.66
Cg |   60.2 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.4   4.8  11.2  18.9  21.8  [B]22.9[/B]  20.0 | 10.06 | 12.63
Pr |   58.0 |     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.1   1.9   5.9  12.8  18.5  24.6  [B]36.2[/B] | 10.66 | 11.27

   |  KRACH |     2     3     4     5     6     7     8     9    10    11    12    13    14    15    16    17    18    19    20    21    22    23    24    25    26    27    28    29    30    31    32    33    34    35    36    37    38    39    40    41    42 |AvgPts
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Qu | 1770.5 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   2.0   3.7   6.3   9.7  13.2  15.8  [B]16.4[/B]  14.2  10.2   5.2   1.9 | 37.19
Ha |  481.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   0.9   1.7   2.9   4.5   6.6   8.7  10.8  11.9  [B]12.3[/B]  11.4   9.7   7.3   5.1   2.9   1.6   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.0     x | 30.51
Cr |  457.4 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.7   1.4   2.4   3.9   5.7   7.9   9.8  11.4  [B]12.0[/B]  11.8  10.2   8.4   5.9   3.9   2.2   1.1   0.4   0.2   0.0   0.0     x | 29.93
Ya |  402.0 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.0   1.8   3.1   4.9   7.0   9.3  11.2  [B]12.3[/B]  12.2  11.3   9.1   6.8   4.4   2.6   1.3   0.6   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0     x     x | 28.32
SL |  325.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.6   1.1   2.0   3.2   4.9   6.8   8.7  10.3  [B]11.5  11.5[/B]  10.8   9.1   7.2   5.1   3.3   1.9   1.0   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 27.50
RP |  209.9 |     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.3   0.7   1.4   2.5   4.0   6.0   8.1  10.1  11.3  [B]12.0[/B]  11.3  10.0   7.9   5.8   3.8   2.4   1.3   0.6   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x | 25.95
Ck |  155.1 |     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.4   0.9   1.6   2.8   4.3   6.3   8.2   9.9  11.0  [B]11.4[/B]  10.7   9.5   7.6   5.7   3.9   2.5   1.4   0.8   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.88
Da |  111.3 |     x     x   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.5   1.1   2.0   3.4   5.1   7.3   9.1  10.8  [B]11.6[/B]  11.5  10.3   8.7   6.7   4.8   3.1   1.9   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 17.44
Br |   56.2 |     x     x   0.1   0.3   1.0   2.2   4.3   6.7   9.6  11.6  [B]12.8[/B]  12.7  11.4   9.3   7.0   4.8   3.0   1.7   0.9   0.4   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.71
Un |   74.9 |   0.0   0.1   0.2   0.6   1.4   2.6   4.6   6.7   9.3  11.0  [B]12.3[/B]  12.2  11.2   9.2   7.1   4.9   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.2   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.66
Cg |   60.2 |     x   0.0   0.2   0.6   1.3   2.8   4.7   7.2   9.3  11.3  [B]12.2[/B]  12.1  10.9   9.0   6.8   4.8   3.1   1.8   1.0   0.5   0.3   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 12.63
Pr |   58.0 |   0.1   0.2   0.7   1.6   3.2   5.3   7.9  10.2  12.2  [B]12.7[/B]  12.1  10.4   8.3   6.0   4.0   2.5   1.4   0.7   0.3   0.1   0.1   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x     x | 11.27


[b]Bold[/b] is each team's most likely outcome.
0.0 means the outcome occurred, but fewer than 500 times.
x means the outcome never occurred.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Clarkson @ 7 assumes that CCT will actually score some goals.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
Well, Quinnipiac did their part to make KRACH work by tying a couple games this weekend, but Colorado College is still terrible and we still need the hypothetical tie.
Click to expand...
I'm not a statistician, but I believe their recommendation is to always use the "hypothetical" tie, even if the results are well-formed. I don't know all the reasons why, but that stuck in my brain somehow.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

LynahFan said:
I'm not a statistician, but I believe their recommendation is to always use the "hypothetical" tie, even if the results are well-formed. I don't know all the reasons why, but that stuck in my brain somehow.
Click to expand...

The hypothetical tie typically goes away when every team involved has played each other team at least once.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

FlagDUDE08 said:
The hypothetical tie typically goes away when every team involved has played each other team at least once.
Click to expand...

It's when you can say every team is better than any other team by a transitive chain (e.g., UA_ is better than BC because UA_ > RPI > BC). They can be quite a bit more complicated, but that's what you need. We're waiting on Colorado College to win a game. I don't actually know if the other 59 teams are all in one comparable group. Someone on ELynah usually keeps track of that, but I haven't looked at it this season.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
It's when you can say every team is better than any other team by a transitive chain (e.g., UA_ is better than BC because UA_ > RPI > BC). They can be quite a bit more complicated, but that's what you need. We're waiting on Colorado College to win a game. I don't actually know if the other 59 teams are all in one comparable group. Someone on ELynah usually keeps track of that, but I haven't looked at it this season.
Click to expand...

He hasn't done that in at least two years.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

lugnut92 said:
It's when you can say every team is better than any other team by a transitive chain (e.g., UA_ is better than BC because UA_ > RPI > BC). They can be quite a bit more complicated, but that's what you need. We're waiting on Colorado College to win a game. I don't actually know if the other 59 teams are all in one comparable group. Someone on ELynah usually keeps track of that, but I haven't looked at it this season.
Click to expand...

Fair enough; I thought you got rid of it when everyone played each other last year. Perhaps they were coincidental. I did see, on the Quinnipiac thread, how AIC is better than BC.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

Here's Ken's own explanation: link.

Note that he recommends keeping the fictitious tie, even after it is not numerically necessary.
 
Re: ECAC Projected Standings 2015-16

LynahFan said:
Note that he recommends keeping the fictitious tie, even after it is not numerically necessary.
Click to expand...

He says that he keeps them to maintain comparisons from week to week. I suppose I could do that, I just don't like to.
 
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