It's about that time again. There's four weeks left in the season with every team having seven, eight, or nine games remaining.
So, I'll try and put up a post fairly soon after the conclusion of a day's games. Each post has the current standings (by points%, not pure points), remaining league schedules, and a breakdown of why each team is limited in the way that it is. Eventually, it'll get to the point where the potential tiebreakers are much more interesting than the range itself, so that's what I'll do for the last week or so.
--- Bye Lock - 30
--- Home Lock - 25+
UC 21 - 35 [1-12]
Cornell 19 - 35 [1-12]
Colgate 17 - 33 [1-12]
CCT 15 - 31 [1-12]
Harvard 16 - 30 [1-12]
DC 13 - 31 [1-12]
QU 14 - 30 [1-12]
Yale 13 - 29 [1-12]
Brown 12 - 28 [1-12]
PU 12 - 26 [1-12]
SLU 9 - 25 [1-12]
RPI 9 - 25 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 15
Clarkson holds 4th over Harvard on the basis of the game in hand.
Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied for 6th place. DC beat QU in New Hampshire to start the season, so they hold the tiebreaker.
St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker over RPI based on the Pts vs Top 8 criteria.
Remaining League Schedules:
So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status kinda sucks.
Shockingly, every single team can finish in every place from 1st to 12th, inclusive. Is Union likely to drop all the way to 12th? No. Especially since it would require at least a 3-way tie at 21 points. RPI and SLU can still take sole possession of the Cleary Cup at 25 points (and potentially less, I didn't explore it in too much depth).
Thresholds:
Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. Currently, I believe it sits at 30 points. Four teams each with 30 and a 5th at 29. I've currently got the Clarkson / Colgate / Cornell / Dartmouth / Union quintet occupying those five places.
Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. It's an 8-way tie for 4th, with Cornell, Colgate, and Union ahead of the pack and RPI trailing with 17 points. Currently, with the sequence of games that I use to get to this specific tie, SLU wins the tiebreaker with 17 points earned against the other teams.
Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. I have it at 25 points plus the required tiebreakers. It's another congested six-way tie (Brown / Clarkson / Colgate / Dartmouth / Harvard / Yale) with Dartmouth being left out. It ends up coming down to Colgate / Dartmouth with them splitting the season series and Colgate having 12 wins vs Dartmouth's 10.
Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. Yale can still finish in 8th place with just two more points. Dartmouth, Brown, and St. Lawrence all finish with 14 points and RPI also finishes with less than 15, meaning that the Elis still get an extra pair of home games.
Thanks for reading. I hope that this was useful and that it helps shed some light on the playoff race as we head down the road towards Atlantic City.
So, I'll try and put up a post fairly soon after the conclusion of a day's games. Each post has the current standings (by points%, not pure points), remaining league schedules, and a breakdown of why each team is limited in the way that it is. Eventually, it'll get to the point where the potential tiebreakers are much more interesting than the range itself, so that's what I'll do for the last week or so.
--- Bye Lock - 30
--- Home Lock - 25+
UC 21 - 35 [1-12]
Cornell 19 - 35 [1-12]
Colgate 17 - 33 [1-12]
CCT 15 - 31 [1-12]
Harvard 16 - 30 [1-12]
DC 13 - 31 [1-12]
QU 14 - 30 [1-12]
Yale 13 - 29 [1-12]
Brown 12 - 28 [1-12]
PU 12 - 26 [1-12]
SLU 9 - 25 [1-12]
RPI 9 - 25 [1-12]
--- Bye Eligible - 19+
--- Home Eligible - 15
Clarkson holds 4th over Harvard on the basis of the game in hand.
Dartmouth and Quinnipiac are tied for 6th place. DC beat QU in New Hampshire to start the season, so they hold the tiebreaker.
St. Lawrence holds the tiebreaker over RPI based on the Pts vs Top 8 criteria.
Remaining League Schedules:
Code:
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| | T 1/31 | F 2/3 | S 2/4 | F 2/10 | S 2/11 | F 2/17 | S 2/18 | F 2/24 | S 2/25 |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| UC | | Colgate | Cornell | @DC | | PU | QU | @Cornell | @Colgate |
| Cornell | | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale | @CCT | @SLU | UC | RPI |
| Colgate | | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown | @SLU | @CCT | RPI | UC |
| CCT | | @Brown | @Yale | PU | QU | Cornell | Colgate | @DC | @Harvard |
| Harvard | DC | @QU | | RPI | | @Brown | @Yale | SLU | CCT |
| DC | @Harvard | @PU | @QU | UC | RPI | @Yale | @Brown | CCT | SLU |
| QU | | Harvard | DC | @SLU | @CCT | @RPI | @UC | Brown | Yale |
| Yale | | SLU | CCT | @Colgate | @Cornell | DC | Harvard | @PU | @QU |
| Brown | | CCT | SLU | @Cornell | @Colgate | Harvard | DC | @QU | @PU |
| PU | | DC | | @CCT | @SLU | @UC | @RPI | Yale | Brown |
| SLU | | @Yale | @Brown | QU | PU | Colgate | Cornell | @Harvard | @DC |
| RPI | | Cornell | Colgate | @Harvard | @DC | QU | PU | @Colgate | @Cornell |
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------So, Sioux Sports has a what-if calculator, but they don't use tiebreakers. slack.net posts an ECAC Playoff Possibilities Script closer to the end of the season. The current link goes to last year's calculator (which, quite honestly, doesn't do much). And, you should familiarize yourself with the tie-breaking guidelines. Oh, and a reminder that playoff status kinda sucks.
Shockingly, every single team can finish in every place from 1st to 12th, inclusive. Is Union likely to drop all the way to 12th? No. Especially since it would require at least a 3-way tie at 21 points. RPI and SLU can still take sole possession of the Cleary Cup at 25 points (and potentially less, I didn't explore it in too much depth).
Thresholds:
Bye Lock - The number of points required to secure a week off in March if 5th place finishes with as many points as possible. Currently, I believe it sits at 30 points. Four teams each with 30 and a 5th at 29. I've currently got the Clarkson / Colgate / Cornell / Dartmouth / Union quintet occupying those five places.
Bye Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 4. It's an 8-way tie for 4th, with Cornell, Colgate, and Union ahead of the pack and RPI trailing with 17 points. Currently, with the sequence of games that I use to get to this specific tie, SLU wins the tiebreaker with 17 points earned against the other teams.
Home Lock - The number of points required to play at home in the first week of March if 9th place finishes with as many points as possible. I have it at 25 points plus the required tiebreakers. It's another congested six-way tie (Brown / Clarkson / Colgate / Dartmouth / Harvard / Yale) with Dartmouth being left out. It ends up coming down to Colgate / Dartmouth with them splitting the season series and Colgate having 12 wins vs Dartmouth's 10.
Home Eligible - The number of points that a team can achieve and still have the possibility of finishing in the Top 8. Yale can still finish in 8th place with just two more points. Dartmouth, Brown, and St. Lawrence all finish with 14 points and RPI also finishes with less than 15, meaning that the Elis still get an extra pair of home games.
Thanks for reading. I hope that this was useful and that it helps shed some light on the playoff race as we head down the road towards Atlantic City.
