2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

[dave1381]

Using result probabilities based on KRACH, I've run a quickie program to calculate of each team winning their conference title. (I also have a program to do this with the Rutter model)

Note KRACH is a system that assigns a number A to one team and a number B to another, and the probability of the first team winning is A/(A+B). The system doesn't take into account matchups, recent play, home ice, etc, etc. It's a model. It's probably in the ballpark. It's interesting to note the parity of this year compared to last year.

Here we go, teams listed by seed

Hockey East (chance of champion below 8th in PWR = 35.5%)
1. Providence 21.6%
2. UNH 38.3%
3. BU 10.9%
4. Northeastern 12.5%
5. UConn 13.7%
6. BC 3%

ECAC (chance of champion below 8th in PWR = 48.4%)
1. Cornell 21.0%
2. Clarkson 21.8%
3. Harvard 29.8%
4. Quinnipiac 13.9%
5. RPI 4.4%
6. Princeton 2.6%
7. St. Lawrence 5.0%
8. Colgate 1.5%

WCHA (chance of champion below 8th in PWR = 21.0%)
1. UMD 41.2%
2. Minnesota 37.8%
3. St. Cloud 7.0%
4. Wisconsin 7.4%
5. Ohio State 4.3%
6. Bemidji State 2.1%
7. Minnesota State 0.2%
8. North Dakota 0.1%

A few other stats:

The probability that SOME team outside the current PWR top 8 wins a conference tournament autobid is 73.7%.
The probability that ALL three autobids are won by teams outside the PWR top 8 is 3.6%.

Oh, and the CHA tournament with no autobid (assuming current seeds hold)
1. Mercyhurst 79.7%
2. Niagara 8.9%
3. Syracuse 8.6%
4. Wayne State 2.9%

 

[JosephPSchmoe]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

So the Frozen Four are UMD, Mercyhurst, Harvard and UNH. National championship game would be UMD vs Mercyhurst. National title clearly goes to UMD.

I like that program you have there.

 

[scrambledlegs]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

Using result probabilities based on KRACH, I've run a quickie program to calculate of each team winning their conference title. (I also have a program to do this with the Rutter model)

Note KRACH is a system that assigns a number A to one team and a number B to another, and the probability of the first team winning is A/(A+B). The system doesn't take into account matchups, recent play, home ice, etc, etc. It's a model. It's probably in the ballpark. It's interesting to note the parity of this year compared to last year.

Here we go, teams listed by seed

Hockey East (chance of champion below 8th in PWR = 35.5%)
1. Providence 21.6%
2. UNH 38.3%
3. BU 10.9%
4. Northeastern 12.5%
5. UConn 13.7%
6. BC 3%

Wow! I am loving our %! Especially compared to last year when it was only 2.4% and we made it to the semis!

In case anyone is interested, I have copied in the model that Dave ran last year. What a difference a year makes!

2008-2009
Hockey East
UNH 44.0
BC 31.7
BU 9.0
UConn 12.1
Providence 2.4
Northeastern 0.1

ECAC
SLU 29.9
Harvard 20.6
Dartmouth 20.0
Princeton 14.4
Colgate 8.0
Clarkson 3.7
RPI 2.3
Cornell 1.1

WCHA
Minnesota 47.3
Wisconsin 40.3
UMD 11.0
St. Cloud 0.8
N. Dakota 0.5
Mankato 0.05
Ohio State 0.01
Bemidji 0.003

CHA
Mercyhurst 65.9
Wayne State 30.3
Robert Morris 2.1
Niagara 1.7

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

Here are the probabilities of winning the NCAA championship, according to KRACH

Mercyhurst 50.1%
UMD 15.3%
Minnesota 11.2%
Harvard 7.4%
Cornell 5.2%
Clarkson 5.0%
UNH 4.0%
BU 1.9%

Probabilities of making the NCAA final

Mercyhurst 66.8%
Harvard 15.3%
Cornell 11.9%
BU 6.0%

UMD 36.7%
Minnesota 30.0%
Clarkson 17.6%
UNH 15.8%

Probabilities of Frozen Four

Mercyhurst 84.9%
UMD 63.8%
Minnesota 58.9%
Harvard 53.9%
Cornell 46.1%
Clarkson 41.1%
UNH 36.2%
BU 15.1%

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

Here are the probabilities of winning the NCAA championship, according to KRACH

Mercyhurst 50.1%
UMD 15.3%
Minnesota 11.2%
Harvard 7.4%
Cornell 5.2%
Clarkson 5.0%
UNH 4.0%
BU 1.9%

And here are the championship probabilities according to the Rutter Rankings:

Mercyhurst 49.6%
UMD 17.5%
Minnesota 13.6%
Harvard 7.4%
Clarkson 3.9%
UNH 3.5%
Cornell 3.4%
BU 1.2%

 

[LakersFan]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

And here are the championship probabilities according to the Rutter Rankings:

Mercyhurst 49.6%
UMD 17.5%
Minnesota 13.6%
Harvard 7.4%
Clarkson 3.9%
UNH 3.5%
Cornell 3.4%
BU 1.2%

Behold the power of math

I am just glad the Lakers potentially avoid a team from Minnesota until the finals.

 

[D2D]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

I am just glad the Lakers potentially avoid a team from Minnesota until the finals.

Might we be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves?

 

[LakersFan]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

Might we be getting a little bit ahead of ourselves?

I think whenever there is "home team" in a tournament, you can't help but look ahead and see how the draw sits for your team. Merychurst also has a nice draw in the sense that the teams they have lost/tied with are on the other side of the bracket. So from a Lakers perspective, assuming they take care of business, they got a little lucky.

 

[dave1381]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

I think whenever there is "home team" in a tournament, you can't help but look ahead and see how the draw sits for your team. Merychurst also has a nice draw in the sense that the teams they have lost/tied with are on the other side of the bracket. So from a Lakers perspective, assuming they take care of business, they got a little lucky.

I agreed with the "I am just glad the Lakers potentially avoid a team from Minnesota until the finals" sentiment, and that's not luck. Minnesota & UMD are the 3 and 2 seeds and your earn that by being the No. 1 seed.

This last post though seems to suggest you feel you lucked out because Clarkson is in Minnesota&UMD's bracket, and you're in line to get Harvard (who you haven't played) and Cornell. You seem to think somehow having Harvard&Cornell is a much better outcome than Clarkson&UNH. I don't agree with that sentiment. I think you underestimate Cornell based on their season-opening weekend hosting you. There's a big gap between 3 and 4, and a gap between the No. 7 team and BU, in terms of performance this season. No huge difference between 4 through 7.

 

[LakersFan]

Re: 2010 Conference Championship Probabilities

This last post though seems to suggest you feel you lucked out because Clarkson is in Minnesota&UMD's bracket, and you're in line to get Harvard (who you haven't played) and Cornell. You seem to think somehow having Harvard&Cornell is a much better outcome than Clarkson&UNH. I don't agree with that sentiment. I think you underestimate Cornell based on their season-opening weekend hosting you. There's a big gap between 3 and 4, and a gap between the No. 7 team and BU, in terms of performance this season. No huge difference between 4 through 7.

I would rather play a team that hasn't seen Merychurst this season (Harvard) or that that they beat a long time ago (Cornell) than a team (Clarkson) that knows they can hang with Mercyhurst. When I have seen the Lakers play at home, they always play better the first game then they do the second. I don't know if that is due to adjustments by the other team or mental lapses by the Lakers.

I agree that once you get beyond the top three, things are pretty much equal (not having seen everybody play, but based on my rankings). Therefore, I am looking towards other things. The Cornell series was so long ago, that it doesn't really come into play. But the Clarkson game was in January, and Clarkson would have to feel confident coming into a third game with the Lakers. Even accounting for scouting and videotape, I think Clarkson is better prepared for the Lakers than Harvard.

Besides, the possibility of getting the Crimson again after that 3OT thriller in the first NCAA quarterfinal game in 2005 makes me giddy with excitement. Too bad spring break wasn't two weeks later.