2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

What in the actual fark, Biden?

Biden: ..by the way, I got hairy legs that turn blonde in the sun and the kids used to reach in the pool and rub my leg down and watch the hair come back up again..& I tell ya what the men, the guys I worked with down here, they were all guys at the timepic.twitter.com/xshyEEOrC0

— cursed-dem public option (@kallllisti) December 1, 2019

[The Rube]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Glass Joe. Was a take off Glass Jaw.

Thank you. I never played the game, just knew about it.

[bronconick]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

What in the actual fark, Biden?

Biden: ..by the way, I got hairy legs that turn blonde in the sun and the kids used to reach in the pool and rub my leg down and watch the hair come back up again..& I tell ya what the men, the guys I worked with down here, they were all guys at the timepic.twitter.com/xshyEEOrC0

— cursed-dem public option (@kallllisti) December 1, 2019

Barring a collapse from poor showings in Iowa/NH, it's going to be him.

He's getting 60% of black voters over 45. No one else is over 10% there

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Barring a collapse from poor showings in Iowa/NH, it's going to be him.

He's getting 60% of black voters over 45. No one else is over 10% there

I'm so excited.

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

He's getting 60% of black voters over 45. No one else is over 10% there

Blacks are 10% of the electorate and so 20% of the Democratic electorate. 50% (60%-10%) x 20% = 10%.

This would be heresy for Kos or academia or on the campaign trail and I'll deny I ever said it, but... blacks are not that important.

[ScoobyDoo]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Blacks are 10% of the electorate and so 20% of the Democratic electorate. This would be heresy for Kos or academia or on the campaign trail,, but... they just are not that important.

True. But they're a huge part of the primary electorate in a lot of states.

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Blacks are 10% of the electorate and so 20% of the Democratic electorate. This would be heresy for Kos or academia or on the campaign trail,, but... they just are not that important.

My understanding is non-whites (which of course includes Hispanics) make up 40% of the Dem primary voters. Will try to dig up something more specific.

In short, they're critical. Something Sanders found out the hard way in 2016.

In the general they're about 30-35%.

Good breakdown here: https://www.brookings.edu/research/t...rimary-voters/

Looks like blacks are 24% of primary voters, Hispanics 9% and Asians 7%.

[bronconick]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Blacks are 10% of the electorate and so 20% of the Democratic electorate. 50% (60%-10%) x 20% = 10%.

This would be heresy for Kos or academia or on the campaign trail and I'll deny I ever said it, but... they just are not that important.

It's a massive chunk of delegates though, which *are* important.

NEW: A visual aide to our black voters reporting. We dug into the DNC delegate math to show why, to this point, black voters give Joe Biden a structural advantage in this primary that's even bigger than polling would suggest.

By me + @LaurenLeatherbyhttps://t.co/5tokx117OU

— Steadman™ (@AsteadWesley) December 2, 2019

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

My understanding is non-whites (which of course includes Hispanics) make up 40% of the Dem primary voters. Will try to dig up something more specific.

In short, they're critical. Something Sanders found out the hard way in 2016.

In the general they're about 30-35%.

A Democratic candidate cannot win the nomination by being lily white, but they could easily win if they appealed to every constituency except black voters.

The party is changing, moving away from identity issues and towards economics. Blacks are very comfortable with the old way the party was structured towards Balkanized constituent service based on identity. They don't trust economics-based liberalism because they understand that the old Democratic preference was for supporting downtrodden identity groups against white lower class racism. They assume if the model of liberalism in the US becomes more like the European model then racism will come back into liberal politics in the guide of support of economically disadvantaged whites. They're probably not wrong because race is still a huge deal in this country among the uneducated (white and black).

It's growing pains. We can be an identity party and keep fighting 50/50 elections against Nazis, and lose half the time, or we can be a working class party and start fighting 60/40 elections against Plutes, and win most of the time. We must choose, and the CBC isn't going to like the logical choice.

[FadeToBlack&Gold]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

If it's Biden, say hello to another four years of Trump. Those two senile old fcks on a debate stage is going to depress voter turnout like none other.

[Rover]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

If it's Biden, say hello to another four years of Trump. Those two senile old fcks on a debate stage is going to depress voter turnout like none other.

Meh...not necessarily. If there's one thing Chump does, its driving turnout. Unfortunately for the idiot, he's been driving Dem turnout higher than Nazi turnout over the last couple of years.

For whatever reason which we need not rehash our opinions on, Democrats did not turn out in force in 2016. Now with 3 years of the horror of the Chump administration under our belts, which has been as bad or worse than anybody imagined, its going to be really hard for Vlady and the boys in the Russian intelligence services to drive down turnout. Even with Zombie Joe and his Undead Campaign.

[Kepler]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Biden has as good a chance of winning as anybody.What he loses in the opportunity to grow the party he gains back in even higher turnout by the current party. Compare this with Dump, who maximizes Nazi turnout but imposes a hard cap on Nazi growth. We know Biden can win because Dump won.

An ideal candidate would both turn out more currents and grow the party, but that doesn't appear to be in the cards.

[mookie1995]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

all y'all are delusional. race is a huge deal, period. everywhere. and there is no cap on nazi growth.

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

Blacks are 10% of the electorate and so 20% of the Democratic electorate. 50% (60%-10%) x 20% = 10%.

This would be heresy for Kos or academia or on the campaign trail and I'll deny I ever said it, but... blacks are not that important.

Man I am glad you said that because I was about to post the same thing

This large field though is beyond problematic now. That is what is keeping Biden in this. He is playing the Trump book to a T (ya know, minus being a fascist ********) kind of staying out of the fray and standing on his name. Everyone else is fighting each other and paying for their missteps and he just kind of moves at an even keel and that seems to be working. If the field doesnt consolidate soon it might be too late.

I dont want to have to begrudgingly support the candidate again. I will do it but good lord what is wrong with people if that clown is who they think is the best of the bunch. He isnt even the best Centrist in the field let alone the best Democrat.

[Handyman]

Re: 2020 Democratic Challengers VII: Bon Voyage Beto

If it's Biden, say hello to another four years of Trump. Those two senile old fcks on a debate stage is going to depress voter turnout like none other.

I dunno...from everything we have seen people seem to like senile old fcks better right now than they like anything else. I honestly think the people just want someone stupid in charge because they themselves are stupid so they feel better about themselves.