Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

Collapse
This topic is closed.
X
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    College Hockey Weekly has released their 2012 NCAA Tournament Bracketology (also their Forecast on what they think the tournament will actually look like). I'm sure a few of the other Bracketologies will be coming out soon from other sites as well. Anyway, I thought I would post a thread where we can discuss all the different bracketologies (and of course post our own).

    Enjoy!

    Here is the direct link for the CHW Bracketology...

    http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

    Here is the direct link for the CHW Tournament Forecast...

    http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
    North Dakota
    National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

  • #2
    Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

    Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
    College Hockey Weekly has released their 2012 NCAA Tournament Bracketology (also their Forecast on what they think the tournament will actually look like). I'm sure a few of the other Bracketologies will be coming out soon from other sites as well. Anyway, I thought I would post a thread where we can discuss all the different bracketologies (and of course post our own).

    Enjoy!

    Here is the direct link for the CHW Bracketology...

    http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/C..._Pairwise.html

    Here is the direct link for the CHW Tournament Forecast...

    http://www.collegehockeyweekly.com/T...-Forecast.html
    Oh how sweet that would be.... To be able to end No Dak's season in the X to move on to the Frozen Four and earn redemption for the last time they had that chance....
    - Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God. -

    Go Bemidji Beavers
    Go you Green and White
    Go Bemidji Beavers
    Fight with all your might!
    Rah! Rah! Rah!
    We are here to cheer you
    We are out to win your fame,
    So, Go Bemidji Beavers
    Fight to win this game.-Fight.

    Comment


    • #3
      Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

      Originally posted by GopherBigGuy911 View Post
      Oh how sweet that would be.... To be able to end No Dak's season in the X to move on to the Frozen Four and earn redemption for the last time they had that chance....
      It would be an interesting matchup that is for sure.

      FWIW, the voting for the projected tournament was done by the same group of 8 that voted for the midseason All-American team, and the midseason awards.

      Here was my ballot:

      #1 Seeds: Ohio State, Boston College, Merrimack, Minnesota Duluth
      #2 Seeds: Colorado College, Western Michigan, Union, Notre Dame
      #3 Seeds: Minnesota, Boston University, Cornell, Michigan State
      #4 Seeds: Denver, Atlantic Hockey Champion, UMass Lowell, Colgate
      North Dakota
      National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

      Comment


      • #4
        Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

        Originally posted by Fighting Sioux 23 View Post
        It would be an interesting matchup that is for sure.

        FWIW, the voting for the projected tournament was done by the same group of 8 that voted for the midseason All-American team, and the midseason awards.

        Here was my ballot:

        #1 Seeds: Ohio State, Boston College, Merrimack, Minnesota Duluth
        #2 Seeds: Colorado College, Western Michigan, Union, Notre Dame
        #3 Seeds: Minnesota, Boston University, Cornell, Michigan State
        #4 Seeds: Denver, Atlantic Hockey Champion, UMass Lowell, Colgate
        Huh - you don't think No Dak has their act together yet?
        - Blessed are the peacemakers, for they will be called children of God. -

        Go Bemidji Beavers
        Go you Green and White
        Go Bemidji Beavers
        Fight with all your might!
        Rah! Rah! Rah!
        We are here to cheer you
        We are out to win your fame,
        So, Go Bemidji Beavers
        Fight to win this game.-Fight.

        Comment


        • #5
          Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

          Originally posted by GopherBigGuy911 View Post
          Huh - you don't think No Dak has their act together yet?
          While I think North Dakota will be much improved in the second half of the season, I think they will fall just short of making the NCAA Tournament. The WCHA is not very strong this year, and that is shown by the current pairwise (and only 3 WCHA teams in the top 20 currently, with CC just barely making it in as the #15 overall seed). If North Dakota is able to continue to get great goaltending, and get healthy for the second half, we can be as good as anyone in the country. That being said, probably only three, maybe four WCHA teams will make the NCAA Tournament, and I think Duluth, CC and Minnesota will be virtual locks. That leaves Denver, North Dakota and Omaha to fight over one potential spot...assuming that there are no big upsets come tournament time. I think Denver will have the best second half of those three teams (I thought Denver would win the WCHA at the beginning of the season), and will sneak in as one of the last at-large selections for the NCAA Tournament.
          North Dakota
          National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

          Comment


          • #6
            Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

            Which Pairwise are they using? How the COp component is calculated was changed. The USCHO Pairwise were corrected after I pointed out the flaw in the system. SS and Slack.net still use the incorrect calculation. For example, SS has NMU losing the COp with LSSU .625 to .500 however the margin is actually 2.500 to 2.000 because of the new way the COp is calculated.

            Right now they happen to match, but I expect there will be differences as we get closer to the official selection.

            Comment


            • #7
              Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

              Originally posted by Priceless View Post
              Which Pairwise are they using? How the COp component is calculated was changed. The USCHO Pairwise were corrected after I pointed out the flaw in the system. SS and Slack.net still use the incorrect calculation. For example, SS has NMU losing the COp with LSSU .625 to .500 however the margin is actually 2.500 to 2.000 because of the new way the COp is calculated.

              Right now they happen to match, but I expect there will be differences as we get closer to the official selection.
              I'm not sure which pairwise they were using. I would guess USCHO or CHN, but I'm not 100% certain. As there are no other Sioux fans in the group, I would doubt it is siouxsports, but it's possible.
              North Dakota
              National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

              Comment


              • #8
                Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                Which Pairwise are they using? How the COp component is calculated was changed. The USCHO Pairwise were corrected after I pointed out the flaw in the system. SS and Slack.net still use the incorrect calculation. For example, SS has NMU losing the COp with LSSU .625 to .500 however the margin is actually 2.500 to 2.000 because of the new way the COp is calculated.

                Right now they happen to match, but I expect there will be differences as we get closer to the official selection.
                as long as A>B if and only if f(A)>f(B) who cares

                2.5/2=.625/.5=1.25

                I would say the whole number figuring is much more confusing... but its the same as long as you divide by the total number of common opponents
                Last edited by Patman; 12-26-2011, 10:52 PM.
                BS UML '04, PhD UConn '09

                Jerseys I would like to have:
                Skating Friar Jersey
                AIC Yellowjacket Jersey w/ Yellowjacket logo on front
                UAF Jersey w/ Polar Bear on Front
                Army Black Knight logo jersey


                NCAA Men's Division 1 Simulation Primer

                Comment


                • #9
                  Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                  Cornell gets left out due to a lesser OOC schedule on both predictions. Can't see why they would not be in there at this point.
                  YALE HOCKEY
                  2013 National Champions

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                    Looking forward to more releases in the second half of the season. Always love watching the bracketology unfold.

                    Thanks for the work you guys do over there and posting updates here for us to see.
                    "It ain't over, baby! And that took only six seconds!"

                    USCHO gives me another reason to not do work while I am at work.

                    Everything is Hill's fault.....

                    "Hakstol you hack!!!!"

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                      Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
                      Cornell gets left out due to a lesser OOC schedule on both predictions. Can't see why they would not be in there at this point.
                      Cornell is a #4 seed in the Tournament Forecast (Northeast Regional).
                      North Dakota
                      National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                        Originally posted by gopher wes View Post
                        Looking forward to more releases in the second half of the season. Always love watching the bracketology unfold.

                        Thanks for the work you guys do over there and posting updates here for us to see.
                        Thanks. We will be doing a bracketology (as well as a tournament forecast) weekly until the end of the season.
                        North Dakota
                        National Champions: 1959, 1963, 1980, 1982, 1987, 1997, 2000, 2016

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                          Originally posted by Patman View Post
                          as long as A>B if and only if f(A)>f(B) who cares

                          2.5/2=.625/.5=1.25

                          I would say the whole number figuring is much more confusing... but its the same as long as you divide by the total number of common opponents
                          There can be differences. Earlier this year the comparison between Maine and Northeastern was different which flipped the pairing. I did analysis of the last few NCAA brackets and found that it would impact the bubble teams. I think (on my other computer I could look it up) it was Vermont who got left out of the field using this new formula.

                          Edit: It was a different change that impacted UVM. Here is my analysis from last summer:

                          Originally posted by Priceless View Post
                          After analyzing the Pairwise from last year not a single comparison changed among teams that were in the NCAA tournament or on the bubble. I examined the comparisons where flipping the winner of the COp component would make a difference (ie 1-1, 3-2 etc) and there were no changes. The team that won the COp component in the original Pairwise won with this new formula. So I'm not sure why this rule had to be changed.

                          The example provided by the NCAA:

                          This example provided by the NCAA shows how the new system of calculating results against common opponents would be scored.

                          Team A is 3–0 against Team C (1.000);
                          Team B is 1–0 against Team C (1.000);
                          Team A is 0–2 against Team D (0.000);
                          Team B is 1–2 against Team D (0.333);

                          Team B would be credited with having won the common opponents category with a 1.333 total in the individual opponent percentages compared to 1.000 for Team A. They both had a 1.000 winning percentage against Team C, and Team B had a better winning percentage than Team A against Team D (.000 for Team A and .333 for Team B). Under the current structure, Team A would be credited with having won the common opponents category as they were 3–2 (.600) against common opponents, while Team B was only 2–2 (.500).
                          So using the example provided before


                          against Colorado College--Michigan was 1-0, Minnesota-Duluth was 0-1-1
                          Michigan = 1.0000 UMD=.2500
                          against Lake Superior--Michigan was 2-0, Minnesota-Duluth was 0-0-1
                          Michigan = 1.0000 UMD = .5000
                          against Michigan Tech--Michigan was 1-0, Minnesota-Duluth was 4-0
                          Michigan = 1.0000 UMD = 1.0000
                          against Minnesota--Michigan was 0-1, Minnesota-Duluth was 1-1-2
                          Michigan = .0000 UMD = .5000
                          against Nebraska-Omaha--Michigan was 1-1, Minnesota-Duluth was 1-1
                          Michigan = .5000 UMD = .5000
                          against Northern Michigan--Michigan was 2-0, Minnesota-Duluth was 1-0
                          Michigan = 1.0000 UMD = 1.0000
                          against Wisconsin--Michigan was 0-0-1, Minnesota-Duluth was 3-1.
                          Michigan = .5000 UMD = .7500

                          So COp is Michigan 1+1+1+0+.5+1+.5= 5.0000 > UMD = .25+.5+1+.5+.5+1+.75= 4.5
                          Michigan wins the comparison 5 > 4.5833

                          Michigan still wins the overall comparison 3-0

                          It's going to be fun to see how long it takes the programming wizards at SS.com and slack.net to accurately duplicate the new format.
                          Last edited by Priceless; 12-27-2011, 11:33 AM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                            The biggest question the second half of the season has to be how Boston University will respond to its mid season departures. I also would be cautious on Merrimack. They have struggled as of late. If Northeastern continues to play like they have been playing than they have a decent shot of snagging that final at large seed especially if they win the Minnesota tournament.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Re: 2012 NCAA Tournament: Bracketology

                              Originally posted by LTsatch View Post
                              Cornell gets left out due to a lesser OOC schedule on both predictions. Can't see why they would not be in there at this point.
                              No they make the tourney forecast as a four seed. Besides they're probably the safest bet to win the tourney.

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X